IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/trapol/v115y2022icp262-274.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impacts of energy transition on Liquefied Natural Gas shipping: A case study of China and its strategies

Author

Listed:
  • Yin, Yuwei
  • Lam, Jasmine Siu Lee

Abstract

Energy transition has been a global trend for decades, but very little literature can be found on how energy shipping is affected. Particularly, the coal-to-gas transition of China has intensified the nation's reliance on Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) shipping import, especially through a strategic maritime link, the Straits of Malacca and Singapore (SOMS). If the SOMS is blocked in conflicts or incidents, energy supplies of China will be disrupted. Driven by practical significance and the literature gap, a case study of China is formulated to investigate how shocks in natural gas supply and demand will impact LNG shipping import volumes of China and its reliance on the SOMS, especially in the context of energy transition and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). An innovative System Dynamics model is developed to simulate natural gas supply and demand of China based on historical data, policies, and market information (i.e. energy prices, BRI projects and LNG contracts). It is recommended for China to create financial incentives to support renewable energy and shale gas development, enhance natural gas pipeline utilization and encourage overseas LNG infrastructure investments. BRI members are recommended to diversify export routes, expanding shares in global pipeline natural gas and LNG markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Yin, Yuwei & Lam, Jasmine Siu Lee, 2022. "Impacts of energy transition on Liquefied Natural Gas shipping: A case study of China and its strategies," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 262-274.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:115:y:2022:i:c:p:262-274
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2021.11.008
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967070X21003292
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.tranpol.2021.11.008?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jasmine Siu Lee Lam & Kevin Patrick Brendan Cullinane & Paul Tae-Woo Lee, 2018. "The 21st-century Maritime Silk Road: challenges and opportunities for transport management and practice," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 413-415, July.
    2. Maxwell, Don & Zhu, Zhen, 2011. "Natural gas prices, LNG transport costs, and the dynamics of LNG imports," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 217-226, March.
    3. Lin, Wensheng & Zhang, Na & Gu, Anzhong, 2010. "LNG (liquefied natural gas): A necessary part in China's future energy infrastructure," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 4383-4391.
    4. Wang, Ting & Lin, Boqiang, 2014. "China's natural gas consumption and subsidies—From a sector perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 541-551.
    5. Feng, Y.Y. & Chen, S.Q. & Zhang, L.X., 2013. "System dynamics modeling for urban energy consumption and CO2 emissions: A case study of Beijing, China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 252(C), pages 44-52.
    6. Li, Junchen & Dong, Xiucheng & Shangguan, Jianxin & Hook, Mikael, 2011. "Forecasting the growth of China’s natural gas consumption," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1380-1385.
    7. John Coglianese, Todd D. Gerarden, and James H. Stock, 2020. "The Effects of Fuel Prices, Environmental Regulations, and Other Factors on U.S. Coal Production, 2008-2016," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
    8. Chen, Sai & Zhang, Ming & Ding, Yueting & Nie, Rui, 2020. "Resilience of China's oil import system under external shocks: A system dynamics simulation analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    9. Leung, Guy C.K., 2011. "China's energy security: Perception and reality," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1330-1337, March.
    10. Papa, Paola, 2013. "US and EU strategies for maritime transport security: A comparative perspective," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 75-85.
    11. O'Rear, Eric G. & Sarica, Kemal & Tyner, Wallace E., 2015. "Analysis of impacts of alternative policies aimed at increasing US energy independence and reducing GHG emissions," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 121-133.
    12. Ma, Zhengwei & Pi, Guanglin & Dong, Xiucheng & Chen, Chi, 2017. "The situation analysis of shale gas development in China-based on Structural Equation Modeling," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 1300-1307.
    13. Zhang, ZhongXiang, 2011. "China's energy security, the Malacca dilemma and responses," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 7612-7615.
    14. Ren, Jingzheng & Tan, Shiyu & Goodsite, Michael Evan & Sovacool, Benjamin K. & Dong, Lichun, 2015. "Sustainability, shale gas, and energy transition in China: Assessing barriers and prioritizing strategic measures," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 551-562.
    15. Reggiani, Aura, 2013. "Network resilience for transport security: Some methodological considerations," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 63-68.
    16. Gillessen, B. & Heinrichs, H. & Hake, J.-F. & Allelein, H.-J., 2019. "Natural gas as a bridge to sustainability: Infrastructure expansion regarding energy security and system transition," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C), pages 1-1.
    17. Paltsev, Sergey & Zhang, Danwei, 2015. "Natural gas pricing reform in China: Getting closer to a market system?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 43-56.
    18. Yuan, Xueliang & Zuo, Jian, 2011. "Transition to low carbon energy policies in China--from the Five-Year Plan perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3855-3859, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yin, Yuwei & Lam, Jasmine Siu Lee, 2022. "Bottlenecks of LNG supply chain in energy transition: A case study of China using system dynamics simulation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yin, Yuwei & Lam, Jasmine Siu Lee, 2022. "Bottlenecks of LNG supply chain in energy transition: A case study of China using system dynamics simulation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C).
    2. Zhang, Yi & Ji, Qiang & Fan, Ying, 2018. "The price and income elasticity of China's natural gas demand: A multi-sectoral perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 332-341.
    3. Wang, Jianzhou & Jiang, Haiyan & Zhou, Qingping & Wu, Jie & Qin, Shanshan, 2016. "China’s natural gas production and consumption analysis based on the multicycle Hubbert model and rolling Grey model," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 1149-1167.
    4. Liu, Guixian & Dong, Xiucheng & Jiang, Qingzhe & Dong, Cong & Li, Jiaman, 2018. "Natural gas consumption of urban households in China and corresponding influencing factors," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 17-26.
    5. Geng, Jiang-Bo & Ji, Qiang, 2014. "Multi-perspective analysis of China's energy supply security," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 541-550.
    6. Cao, Wensheng & Bluth, Christoph, 2013. "Challenges and countermeasures of China’s energy security," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 381-388.
    7. Li, Lanlan & Luo, Xuan & Zhou, Kaile & Xu, Tingting, 2018. "Evaluation of increasing block pricing for households' natural gas: A case study of Beijing, China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 162-172.
    8. Yang, Weixin & Pan, Lingying & Ding, Qinyi, 2023. "Dynamic analysis of natural gas substitution for crude oil: Scenario simulation and quantitative evaluation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    9. Gong, Chengzhu & Yu, Shiwei & Zhu, Kejun & Hailu, Atakelty, 2016. "Evaluating the influence of increasing block tariffs in residential gas sector using agent-based computational economics," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 334-347.
    10. Leung, Guy C.K. & Cherp, Aleh & Jewell, Jessica & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2014. "Securitization of energy supply chains in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 316-326.
    11. Zhao, Chunfu & Chen, Bin, 2014. "China’s oil security from the supply chain perspective: A review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 269-279.
    12. Zhao, Yong & Shi, Xunpeng & Song, Feng, 2020. "Has Chinese outward foreign direct investment in energy enhanced China's energy security?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    13. Boyd, Roger & Ufimtseva, Anastasia, 2021. "Facilitating peaceful rise: The increasing role of geopolitics and domestic legitimacy in China's energy policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    14. Liedtke, Stephan, 2017. "Chinese energy investments in Europe: An analysis of policy drivers and approaches," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 659-669.
    15. Ju, Keyi & Su, Bin & Zhou, Dequn & Wu, Junmin, 2017. "Does energy-price regulation benefit China's economy and environment? Evidence from energy-price distortions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 108-119.
    16. Wang, Deqing & Tian, Sihua & Fang, Lei & Xu, Yan, 2020. "A functional index model for dynamically evaluating China's energy security," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    17. Dong, Kangyin & Sun, Renjin & Wu, Jin & Hochman, Gal, 2018. "The growth and development of natural gas supply chains: The case of China and the US," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 64-71.
    18. Dong, Jun & Zhang, Xu & Xu, Xiaolin, 2012. "Techno-economic assessment and policy of gas power generation considering the role of multiple stakeholders in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 209-221.
    19. Kundu, Tanmoy & Sheu, Jiuh-Biing, 2019. "Analyzing the effect of government subsidy on shippers’ mode switching behavior in the Belt and Road strategic context," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 175-202.
    20. Lu, Hongfang & Xu, FengYing & Liu, Hongxiao & Wang, Jun & Campbell, Daniel E. & Ren, Hai, 2019. "Emergy-based analysis of the energy security of China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 123-135.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:115:y:2022:i:c:p:262-274. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/30473/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.