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Financial Distress and Endogenous Uncertainty

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  • Francois Gourio

    (FRB Chicago)

Abstract

What is the macroeconomic effect of having a substantial number of firms close to default? This paper studies financial distress costs in a model where customers, suppliers and workers suffer losses if their employer goes bankrupt. I show that this mechanism generates amplification of fundamental shocks through procyclical TFP and countercyclical labor wedge. Because the strength of this amplification depends on the share of firms that are in financial distress, it operates mostly in recessions, when equity values are low. This leads macroeconomic volatility to be endogenously countercyclical. The cross-sectional distribution of firms' equity values affects directly aggregate macroeconomic volatility. Empirical evidence consistent with the model is provided.

Suggested Citation

  • Francois Gourio, 2014. "Financial Distress and Endogenous Uncertainty," 2014 Meeting Papers 1190, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed014:1190
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bigelow, John & Cooper, Russell & Ross, Thomas W, 1993. "Warranties without Commitment to Market Participation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 34(1), pages 85-100, February.
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    7. Chevalier, Judith A, 1995. "Capital Structure and Product-Market Competition: Empirical Evidence from the Supermarket Industry," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 415-435, June.
    8. Ali Hortaçsu & Gregor Matvos & Chad Syverson & Sriram Venkataraman, 2013. "Indirect Costs of Financial Distress in Durable Goods Industries: The Case of Auto Manufacturers," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(5), pages 1248-1290.
    9. Opler, Tim C & Titman, Sheridan, 1994. "Financial Distress and Corporate Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(3), pages 1015-1040, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Contessi, Silvio & De Pace, Pierangelo & Guidolin, Massimo, 2020. "Mildly explosive dynamics in U.S. fixed income markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 287(2), pages 712-724.
    2. Alexander W. Richter & Nathaniel A. Throckmorton, 2017. "A New Way to Quantify the Effect of Uncertainty," Working Papers 1705, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    3. Tyler Atkinson & Michael Plante & Alexander Richter & Nathaniel Throckmorton, 2022. "Complementarity and Macroeconomic Uncertainty," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 44, pages 225-243, April.
    4. Miescu, Mirela S., 2023. "Uncertainty shocks in emerging economies: A global to local approach for identification," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    5. van Wijnbergen, Sweder & Jakucionyte, Egle, 2017. "Debt Overhang, Exchange Rates and the Macroeconomics of Carry Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 11788, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty: Persistence and cross-country linkages," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    7. Petr Sedláček, 2020. "Creative Destruction and Uncertainty," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 1814-1843.
    8. Marek Ignaszak & Petr Sedlacek, 2021. "Profitability, Productivity and Growth," Discussion Papers 2115, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    9. Hikaru Saijo & Cosmin Ilut, 2015. "Learning, Confidence, and Business Cycles," 2015 Meeting Papers 917, Society for Economic Dynamics.

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