IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecb/ecbwps/2006573.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Credit chains and the propagation of financial distress

Author

Listed:
  • Boissay, Frédéric

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to analyze how shocks propagate through a network of firms that borrow from, and lend to, each other in a trade credit chain, and to quantify the effects of financial contagion across firms. I develop a theoretical model of financial contagion, in which the default of one firm may cause a chain reaction such that its creditors also get into financial difficulties, even though they are sound in the first place. I calibrate and simulate the model using US annual data over the period 1986-2004. At the microeconomic level, I find that, when customers of a sound firm are financially distressed, then this firm gets into financial difficulties with probability that ranges from 4.1% to 12.8% (depending on the business cycle and the underlying economic scenario). Looking at the macroeconomic level, I find that defaults on trade debts lower aggregate GDP by at least 0.4%. During the second half of the 90's, these deadweight losses doubled and reached a high of 0.9% to 2.3% of GDP (depending on the underlying economic scenario) before the recession of 2001. The results of the simulations also suggest that financial contagion across businesses had been 25% higher during the last recession than during the recession of the early 90's. JEL Classification: E32, G29, G33

Suggested Citation

  • Boissay, Frédéric, 2006. "Credit chains and the propagation of financial distress," Working Paper Series 573, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2006573
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp573.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Petersen, Mitchell A & Rajan, Raghuram G, 1997. "Trade Credit: Theories and Evidence," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(3), pages 661-691.
    2. Lee, Yul W. & Stowe, John D., 1993. "Product Risk, Asymmetric Information, and Trade Credit," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(2), pages 285-300, June.
    3. repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:5:p:1127-41 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Biais, Bruno & Gollier, Christian, 1997. "Trade Credit and Credit Rationing," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 903-937.
    5. Burkart, Mike & Ellingsen, Tore, 2002. "In-kind finance," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24940, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Emery, Gary W., 1987. "An Optimal Financial Response to Variable Demand," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(2), pages 209-225, June.
    7. Vicente Cuñat, 2007. "Trade Credit: Suppliers as Debt Collectors and Insurance Providers," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(2), pages 491-527.
    8. J. Stephen Ferris, 1981. "A Transactions Theory of Trade Credit Use," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 96(2), pages 243-270.
    9. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 1998. "Financial Contagion Journal of Political Economy," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 98-31, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Joye Khoo & Adrian (Wai Kong) Cheung, 2023. "Does skilled labor risk matter to suppliers? Evidence from trade credit," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 58(2), pages 423-447, May.
    2. Mateut, Simona & Mizen, Paul & Ziane, Ydriss, 2015. "Inventory composition and trade credit," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 434-446.
    3. Leora Klapper & Luc Laeven & Raghuram Rajan, 2012. "Trade Credit Contracts," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(3), pages 838-867.
    4. Mateut, Simona & Chevapatrakul, Thanaset, 2018. "Customer financing, bargaining power and trade credit uptake," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 147-162.
    5. Abdulla, Yomna & Dang, Viet Anh & Khurshed, Arif, 2020. "Suppliers' listing status and trade credit provision," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    6. Hasan, Mostafa Monzur & Habib, Ahsan, 2019. "Social capital and trade credit," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 158-174.
    7. Abdulla, Yomna & Dang, Viet Anh & Khurshed, Arif, 2017. "Stock market listing and the use of trade credit: Evidence from public and private firms," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 391-410.
    8. Pedro J. García†Teruel & Pedro Martínez†Solano, 2010. "A Dynamic Approach to Accounts Receivable: a Study of Spanish SMEs," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 16(3), pages 400-421, June.
    9. Cao, Zhangfan & Chen, Steven Xianglong & Lee, Edward, 2022. "Does business strategy influence interfirm financing? Evidence from trade credit," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 495-511.
    10. Simona Mateut & Paul Mizen & Ydriss Ziane, 2012. "No Going Back: How the Production Process Affects Access to Short-term Credit," Discussion Papers 12/14, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    11. Jiao Wang & Lima Zhao & Arnd Huchzermeier, 2021. "Operations‐Finance Interface in Risk Management: Research Evolution and Opportunities," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 30(2), pages 355-389, February.
    12. Tarkom, Augustine & Yang, Lukai, 2024. "Presidential economic approval rating and trade credit," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    13. Ellingsen, Tore & Burkart, Mike, 2002. "In-Kind Finance," CEPR Discussion Papers 3536, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Xiangfeng Chen & Anyu Wang, 2012. "Trade credit contract with limited liability in the supply chain with budget constraints," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 196(1), pages 153-165, July.
    15. Gofman, Michael & Wu, Youchang, 2022. "Trade credit and profitability in production networks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 593-618.
    16. Maria Cristina Arcuri & Raoul Pisani, 2021. "Is Trade Credit a Sustainable Resource for Medium-Sized Italian Green Companies?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-19, March.
    17. Bougheas, Spiros & Mateut, Simona & Mizen, Paul, 2009. "Corporate trade credit and inventories: New evidence of a trade-off from accounts payable and receivable," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 300-307, February.
    18. Hyndman, Kyle & Serio, Giovanni, 2010. "Competition and inter-firm credit: Theory and evidence from firm-level data in Indonesia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 88-108, September.
    19. Bedendo, Mascia & Garcia-Appendini, Emilia & Siming, Linus, 2017. "Cultural Preferences and the Choice between Formal and Informal Financing," Working Papers on Finance 1707, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    20. Simona Mateut & Paul Mizen & Ydriss Ziane, 2011. "No Going Back: The Interactions Between Processed Inventories and Trade Credit," Discussion Papers 11/04, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    business fluctuations; Financial contagion; trade credit;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G29 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Other
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2006573. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Official Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/emieude.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.