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Credit chains and the propagation of financial distress

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  • Boissay, Frédéric

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to analyze how shocks propagate through a network of firms that borrow from, and lend to, each other in a trade credit chain, and to quantify the effects of financial contagion across firms. I develop a theoretical model of financial contagion, in which the default of one firm may cause a chain reaction such that its creditors also get into financial difficulties, even though they are sound in the first place. I calibrate and simulate the model using US annual data over the period 1986-2004. At the microeconomic level, I find that, when customers of a sound firm are financially distressed, then this firm gets into financial difficulties with probability that ranges from 4.1% to 12.8% (depending on the business cycle and the underlying economic scenario). Looking at the macroeconomic level, I find that defaults on trade debts lower aggregate GDP by at least 0.4%. During the second half of the 90's, these deadweight losses doubled and reached a high of 0.9% to 2.3% of GDP (depending on the underlying economic scenario) before the recession of 2001. The results of the simulations also suggest that financial contagion across businesses had been 25% higher during the last recession than during the recession of the early 90's. JEL Classification: E32, G29, G33

Suggested Citation

  • Boissay, Frédéric, 2006. "Credit chains and the propagation of financial distress," Working Paper Series 573, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2006573
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Petersen, Mitchell A & Rajan, Raghuram G, 1997. "Trade Credit: Theories and Evidence," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(3), pages 661-691.
    2. Lee, Yul W. & Stowe, John D., 1993. "Product Risk, Asymmetric Information, and Trade Credit," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(2), pages 285-300, June.
    3. repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:5:p:1127-41 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Biais, Bruno & Gollier, Christian, 1997. "Trade Credit and Credit Rationing," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 903-937.
    5. Burkart, Mike & Ellingsen, Tore, 2002. "In-kind finance," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24940, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Emery, Gary W., 1987. "An Optimal Financial Response to Variable Demand," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(2), pages 209-225, June.
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    8. J. Stephen Ferris, 1981. "A Transactions Theory of Trade Credit Use," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 96(2), pages 243-270.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    business fluctuations; Financial contagion; trade credit;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G29 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Other
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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