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Expectations and Contagion in Self-fulfilling Currency Attacks

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  • Todd Keister

    (Research and Statistics Group Federal Reserve Bank of New York)

Abstract

This paper shows how expectations-driven contagion of currency crises can arise even if the currency market has a unique equilibrium when viewed in isolation. The model of Morris and Shin (1998) is extended to allow speculators to trade in a second currency market. If speculators believe that a devaluation of this other currency will make a domestic devaluation more likely, they will engage in trades that link the two markets. A sharp devaluation of the other currency will then be propagated to the domestic market and will increase the likelihood of a crisis there, fulfilling the original expectations. Even though this contagion is driven solely by expectations, the model places restrictions on observable variables, and these restrictions are broadly consistent with existing empirical evidence

Suggested Citation

  • Todd Keister, 2006. "Expectations and Contagion in Self-fulfilling Currency Attacks," 2006 Meeting Papers 485, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed006:485
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Junichi Fujimoto, 2014. "Speculative attacks with multiple targets," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 57(1), pages 89-132, September.
    2. Tamgac, Unay, 2011. "Crisis and self-fulfilling expectations: The Turkish experience in 1994 and 2000-2001," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 44-58, January.
    3. Agata Kliber, 2011. "Sovereign CDS Instruments in Central Europe – Linkages and Interdependence," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 11, pages 111-128.
    4. Tai-kuang Ho & Ming-yen Wu, 2012. "Third-person Effect and Financial Contagion in the Context of a Global Game," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(5), pages 823-846, November.
    5. Huberto M. Ennis, 2005. "Complementariedades y Política Macroeconómica," IIE, Working Papers 054, IIE, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    6. Jean-Marc Tallon, 2006. "Incertitude stratégique et sélection d'équilibre : deux applications," Revue d'économie industrielle, De Boeck Université, vol. 0(2), pages 6-6.
    7. Dzsamila Vonnak, 2018. "Multidimensional global games and some applications," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 1803, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Contagion; Currency Crisis; Coordination; Global Games;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design

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