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Incertitude stratégique et sélection d'équilibre : deux applications

Author

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  • Jean-Marc Tallon

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

L'intérêt de l'approche par les jeux globaux ("global games'') est précisément d'ancrer les anticipations sur des variables exogènes réelles. On peut ainsi garder l'aspect auto-réalisateur des anticipations mais en restaurant l'unicité de l'équilibre et donc un meilleur pouvoir prédictif du modèle. Nous illustrons ces mécanismes sur deux exemples. Le premier a trait au choix résidentiel d'agents qui ont une préférence "identitaire''. Le second a trait à la contagion de paniques bancaires d'un pays à un autre. De manière plus générale, tous les jeux qui présentent des complémentarités stratégiques sont susceptibles d'être analysés au moyen des techniques des "global games''. Il convient toutefois de rappeler que les techniques utilisées demeurent assez spécifiques: l'incertitude stratégique porte essentiellement sur les croyances de premier degré des autres acteurs. Or, si de manière plus générale on suppose que cette incertitude peut porter sur des ordres plus élevés, les conclusions des modèles peuvent changer. Ainsi, Weinstein et Yildiz (2004) montrent que dans un oligopole de Cournot, il y a une très grande multiplicité d'équilibres si on suppose que l'incertitude porte sur les croyances de niveaux suffisamment élevés.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Marc Tallon, 2006. "Incertitude stratégique et sélection d'équilibre : deux applications," Post-Print halshs-00177058, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00177058
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00177058
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    References listed on IDEAS

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