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Monetary Policy in the presence of Informal Labour Markets

Author

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  • Castillo, Paul

    (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú)

  • Montoro, Carlos

    (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú and Bank for International Settlements)

Abstract

In this paper we analyse the effects of informal labour markets on the dynamics of inflation and on the transmission of aggregate demand and supply shocks. In doing so, we incorporate the informal sector in a modified New Keynesian model with labour market frictions as in the Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides model. Our main results show that the informal economy generates a "buffer" effect that diminishes the pressure of demand shocks on aggregate wages and inflation. Finding that is consistent with the empirical literature on the e¤ects of informal labour markets in business cycle fluctuations. This result implies that in economies with large informal labour markets the interest rate channel of monetary policy is relatively weaker. Furthermore, the model produces cyclical flows from informal to formal employment consistent with the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Castillo, Paul & Montoro, Carlos, 2010. "Monetary Policy in the presence of Informal Labour Markets," Working Papers 2010-009, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    • Handle: RePEc:rbp:wpaper:2010-009
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    Cited by:

    1. Nicoletta Batini & Young-Bae Kim & Paul Levine & Emanuela Lotti, 2009. "Informal Labour and Credit Markets: A Survey," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0609, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    2. Waknis, Parag, 2017. "A Segmented Markets Model to Teach Analysis of Monetary Policy Shocks in Developing Economies," MPRA Paper 78011, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Ahmed, Shahzad & Ahmed, Waqas & Khan, Sajawal & Pasha, Farooq & Rehman, Muhammad, 2012. "Pakistan Economy DSGE Model with Informality," MPRA Paper 53135, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Batini, Nicoletta & Levine, Paul & Lotti, Emanuela & Yang, Bo, 2011. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy in the Presence of Informal Labour Markets," Working Papers 11/97, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    5. Nicoletta Batini & Paul Levine & Emanuela Lotti & Bo Yang, 2011. "Informality, Frictions and Monetary Policy," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0711, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    6. Devasmita Jena & Ishika Kataruka, 2022. "Monetary Response to Oil Price Shock in Asian Oil Importing Countries: Evaluation of Inflation Targeting Framework," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 20(4), pages 809-825, December.
    7. Mbara, Gilbert & Tyrowicz, Joanna & Kokoszczynski, Ryszard, 2020. "Striking a balance: Optimal tax policy with labor market duality," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    8. Alberola, Enrique & Urrutia, Carlos, 2020. "Does informality facilitate inflation stability?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    9. Giuseppe Ciccarone & Francesco Giuli, 2012. "Underground labor, search frictions and macroeconomic fluctuations," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0159, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
    10. Kumar, Alok, 2023. "Financial market imperfections, informality and government spending multipliers," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    11. Colombo, Emilio & Onnis, Luisanna & Tirelli, Patrizio, 2016. "Shadow economies at times of banking crises: Empirics and theory," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 180-190.
    12. Lahcen, Mohammed Ait, 2014. "DSGE models for developing economies: an application to Morocco," MPRA Paper 63404, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Senbeta, Sisay, 2011. "How applicable are the new keynesian DSGE models to a typical low-income economy?," MPRA Paper 30931, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Patrick, Chileshe M. & Akanabi, Olusegun Ayodele, 2017. "The Impact of Informal Economy on the Interest Rate Pass-through: Evidence from an ARDL model," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 5(2), July.
    15. Busato, Francesco & Chiarini, Bruno & Rey, Guido M., 2012. "Equilibrium implications of fiscal policy with tax evasion: A long run perspective," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 197-214.
    16. Shami, Labib, 2019. "Dynamic monetary equilibrium with a Non-Observed Economy and Shapley and Shubik’s price mechanism," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    17. Anastasiia Antonova, 2018. "Macroeconomic Effects of Minimum Wage Increases in an Economy with Wage Underreporting," Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine, National Bank of Ukraine, issue 246, pages 10-33.
    18. Purva Khera, 2016. "Macroeconomic Impacts of Gender Inequality and Informality in India," IMF Working Papers 2016/016, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Nicoletta Batini & Paul Levine & Emanuela Lotti, 2011. "The Costs and Benefits of Informality," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0211, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    20. Chakrabarti, Anindya S., 2016. "Inflationary effects of monetary policies in newly industrialized economies with cross-sectoral labor and capital immobility," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 151-167.
    21. Sharma, Saurabh & Behera, Harendra, 2022. "A dissection of Indian growth using a DSGE filter," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    22. Giuseppe Ciccarone & Francesco Giuli & Enrico Marchetti, 2016. "Search frictions and labor market dynamics in a real business cycle model with undeclared work," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 62(3), pages 409-442, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary Policy; New Keynesian Model; Informal Economy; Labour Market Frictions.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements

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