IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/qmw/qmwecw/773.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Anticipatory Effects in the FTSE 100 Index Revisions

Author

Listed:
  • Marcelo Fernandes

    (Queen Mary University of London and Sao Paulo School of Economics, FGV)

  • João Mergulhão

    (Sao Paulo School of Economics, FGV)

Abstract

This paper examines the price impact of trading due to expected changes in the FTSE 100 index composition, which employs publicly-known objective criteria to determine membership. Hence, it provides a natural context to investigate anticipatory trading effects. We propose a panel-regression event study that backs out these anticipatory effects by looking at the price impact of the ex-ante probability of changing index membership status. Our findings reveal that anticipative trading explains about 40% and 23% of the cumulative abnormal returns of additions and deletions, respectively. The results are both statistically and economically significant.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcelo Fernandes & João Mergulhão, 2015. "Anticipatory Effects in the FTSE 100 Index Revisions," Working Papers 773, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:773
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.qmul.ac.uk/sef/media/econ/research/workingpapers/2015/items/wp773.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:4:p:1901-1930 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Ahern, Kenneth R., 2009. "Sample selection and event study estimation," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 466-482, June.
    3. Brennan, Michael J. & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 1996. "Market microstructure and asset pricing: On the compensation for illiquidity in stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 441-464, July.
    4. James J. Heckman, 1976. "The Common Structure of Statistical Models of Truncation, Sample Selection and Limited Dependent Variables and a Simple Estimator for Such Models," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 5, number 4, pages 475-492, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Brown, Stephen J & Goetzmann, William N & Ross, Stephen A, 1995. "Survival," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 853-873, July.
    6. Kenneth R. Ahern, 2014. "Do Common Stocks Have Perfect Substitutes? Product Market Competition and the Elasticity of Demand for Stocks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(4), pages 756-766, October.
    7. Vikas Agarwal, 2004. "Risks and Portfolio Decisions Involving Hedge Funds," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(1), pages 63-98.
    8. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
    9. Copeland, Thomas E. & Mayers, David, 1982. "The value line enigma (1965-1978) : A case study of performance evaluation issues," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 289-321, November.
    10. Jeffrey Wurgler & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, 2002. "Does Arbitrage Flatten Demand Curves for Stocks?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(4), pages 583-608, October.
    11. Robert O. Edmister & A. Steven Graham & Wendy L. Pirie, 1994. "Excess Returns Of Index Replacement Stocks: Evidence Of Liquidity And Substitutability," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 17(3), pages 333-346, September.
    12. Amihud, Yakov & Mendelson, Haim, 1986. "Asset pricing and the bid-ask spread," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 223-249, December.
    13. Scholes, Myron S, 1972. "The Market for Securities: Substitution versus Price Pressure and the Effects of Information on Share Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 45(2), pages 179-211, April.
    14. Edmister, Robert O & Graham, A Steven & Pirie, Wendy L, 1994. "Excess Returns of Index Replacement Stocks: Evidence of Liquidity and Substitutability," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 17(3), pages 333-346, Fall.
    15. Harris, Lawrence E & Gurel, Eitan, 1986. "Price and Volume Effects Associated with Changes in the S&P 500 List: New Evidence for the Existence of Price Pressures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(4), pages 815-829, September.
    16. Fung, William & Hsieh, David A., 2000. "Performance Characteristics of Hedge Funds and Commodity Funds: Natural vs. Spurious Biases," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(3), pages 291-307, September.
    17. Andros Gregoriou & Christos Ioannidis, 2006. "Information costs and liquidity effects from changes in the FTSE 100 list," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 347-360.
    18. Aditya Kaul & Vikas Mehrotra & Randall Morck, 2000. "Demand Curves for Stocks Do Slope Down: New Evidence from an Index Weights Adjustment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 893-912, April.
    19. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
    20. Dimson, Elroy & Marsh, Paul, 1986. "Event study methodologies and the size effect : The case of UK press recommendations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 113-142, September.
    21. Erwin, Gayle R & Miller, James M, 1998. "The Liquidity Effects Associated with Addition of a Stock to the S&P 500 Index: Evidence from Bid/Ask Spreads," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 33(1), pages 131-146, February.
    22. Harris, Milton & Raviv, Artur, 1993. "Differences of Opinion Make a Horse Race," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 473-506.
    23. Jobson, J. D. & Korkie, Bob, 1983. "Statistical Inference in Two-Parameter Portfolio Theory with Multiple Regression Software," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(2), pages 189-197, June.
    24. Bryan Mase, 2007. "The Impact of Changes in the FTSE 100 Index," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 42(3), pages 461-484, August.
    25. Treynor, Jack L & Black, Fischer, 1973. "How to Use Security Analysis to Improve Portfolio Selection," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 46(1), pages 66-86, January.
    26. Baker, H Kent & Haslem, John A, 1974. "Toward the Development of Client-Specified Valuation Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(4), pages 1255-1263, September.
    27. Lynch, Anthony W & Mendenhall, Richard R, 1997. "New Evidence on Stock Price Effects Associated with Changes in the S&P 500 Index," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 70(3), pages 351-383, July.
    28. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-1335, November.
    29. Dhillon, Upinder & Johnson, Herb, 1991. "Changes in the Standard and Poor's 500 List," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64(1), pages 75-85, January.
    30. Shleifer, Andrei, 1986. "Do Demand Curves for Stocks Slope Down?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 579-590, July.
    31. Beneish, Messod D & Whaley, Robert E, 1996. "An Anatomy of the "S&P Game": The Effects of Changing the Rules," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1909-1930, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Friedrich-Carl Franz, 2020. "Forecasting index changes in the German DAX family," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 21(2), pages 135-153, March.
    2. Gang Chu & John W. Goodell & Xiao Li & Yongjie Zhang, 2023. "Understanding short‐term price pressure from index reconstitutions: Evidence from the CSI 300," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 63(2), pages 2421-2440, June.
    3. Afego, Pyemo N., 2017. "Effects of changes in stock index compositions: A literature survey," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 228-239.
    4. Tseng, Yun-lan & Pan, Ging-ginq, 2024. "Do anticipated changes in the MSCI Taiwan index drive investor behavior?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 563-580.
    5. Chen, Hung-Ling & Shiu, Cheng-Yi & Wei, Hui-Shan, 2019. "Price effect and investor awareness: Evidence from MSCI Standard Index reconstitutions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 93-112.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fernandes, Marcelo & Mergulhão, João, 2016. "Anticipatory effects in the FTSE 100 index revisions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 79-90.
    2. Afego, Pyemo N., 2017. "Effects of changes in stock index compositions: A literature survey," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 228-239.
    3. Jung-Wook Kim & Jason Lee & Randall Morck, 2009. "Characteristics of Observed Limit Order Demand and Supply Schedules for Individual Stocks," NBER Working Papers 14733, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Wang, Chuan & Murgulov, Zoltan & Haman, Janto, 2015. "Impact of changes in the CSI 300 Index constituents," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 13-33.
    5. Kappou, Konstantina & Brooks, Chris & Ward, Charles W.R., 2008. "A re-examination of the index effect: Gambling on additions to and deletions from the S&P 500's [`]gold seal'," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 325-350, September.
    6. Škrinjarić Tihana, 2019. "Effects of changes in stock market index composition on stock returns: event study methodology on Zagreb Stock Exchange," Croatian Review of Economic, Business and Social Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 5(1), pages 43-54, May.
    7. Ernest N. Biktimirov & Yuanbin Xu, 2019. "Market reactions to changes in the Dow Jones industrial average index," International Journal of Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 15(5), pages 792-812, May.
    8. Luke Bouffler & Amy Kwan & Lantian Liang & Richard Philip, 2023. "Do uninformed traders move prices? Evidence from the Bank of Japan's ETF purchasing program," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 5-18, February.
    9. Konstantina Kappou & Ioannis Oikonomou, 2016. "Is There a Gold Social Seal? The Financial Effects of Additions to and Deletions from Social Stock Indices," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 133(3), pages 533-552, February.
    10. Brooks, Chris & Kappou, Konstantina & Stevenson, Simon & Ward, Charles, 2013. "The performance effects of composition changes on sector specific stock indices: The case of European listed real estate," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 132-142.
    11. Antti Petajisto, 2004. "Why Do Demand Curves for Stocks Slope Down?," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2458, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Sep 2008.
    12. Kot, Hung Wan & Leung, Harry K.M. & Tang, Gordon Y.N., 2015. "The long-term performance of index additions and deletions: Evidence from the Hang Seng Index," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 407-420.
    13. Ken L. Bechmann, 2004. "Price and Volume Effects Associated with Changes in the Danish Blue-Chip Index: The KFX Index," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 8(1-2), pages 3-34, March-Jun.
    14. Konstantina Kappou, 2018. "The diminished effect of index rebalances," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 19(4), pages 235-244, July.
    15. Danbolt, Jo & Hirst, Ian & Jones, Edward, 2018. "Gaming the FTSE 100 index," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 364-378.
    16. Mazouz, Khelifa & Saadouni, Bharim, 2007. "New evidence on the price and liquidity effects of the FTSE 100 index revisions," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 223-241.
    17. Richard Chung & Lawrence Kryzanowski, 1998. "Are the Market Effects Associated with Revisions to the TSE300 Index Robust?," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 2(1), pages 1-36, March.
    18. William B. Elliott & Bonnie F. Van Ness & Mark D. Walker & Richard S. Warr, 2006. "What Drives the S&P 500 Inclusion Effect? An Analytical Survey," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 35(4), pages 31-48, December.
    19. Bildik, Recep & Gulay, Guzhan, 2008. "The effects of changes in index composition on stock prices and volume: Evidence from the Istanbul stock exchange," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 178-197.
    20. Chen, Haiwei & Ngo, Thanh, 2017. "Leverage-based index revisions: The case of Dow Jones Islamic Market World Index," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 16-34.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Imperfect substitutes; Index revision; Liquidity; Price pressure;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:773. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Nicholas Owen (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deqmwuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.