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Forecasting index changes in the German DAX family

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  • Friedrich-Carl Franz

    (Goethe University Frankfurt)

Abstract

Combining market data with a publicly available monthly snapshot of Deutsche Börse’s index ranking list, I create a model that predicts index changes in the DAX, MDAX, SDAX, and TecDAX from 2010 to 2019 before they are officially announced. Even though I empirically show that index changes are predictable, they still earn sizeable post-announcement 1-day abnormal returns up to 1.42% and − 1.54% for promotions and demotions, respectively. While abnormal returns are larger in smaller stocks, I find no evidence that they are related to funding constraints or additional risk for trading on wrong predictions. A trading strategy that trades according to my model yields an annualized Sharpe ratio of 0.83 while being invested for just 4 days a year.

Suggested Citation

  • Friedrich-Carl Franz, 2020. "Forecasting index changes in the German DAX family," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 21(2), pages 135-153, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:assmgt:v:21:y:2020:i:2:d:10.1057_s41260-020-00153-6
    DOI: 10.1057/s41260-020-00153-6
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Index rebalancing; Passive investment; Index effect; Index investing; Trading strategy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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