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A Macroeconometric Model of the Chinese Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Duo Qin

    (Queen Mary, University of London)

  • Marie Anne Cagas

    (Asian Development Bank (ADB))

  • Geoffrey Ducanes

    (Asian Development Bank (ADB))

  • Xinhua He

    (Institute of World Economics & Politics (IWEP), Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS))

  • Rui Liu

    (Institute of World Economics & Politics (IWEP), Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS))

  • Shiguo Liu

    (Institute of World Economics & Politics (IWEP), Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS))

  • Nedelyn Magtibay-Ramos

    (Asian Development Bank (ADB))

Abstract

This paper describes a quarterly macroeconometric model of the Chinese economy. The model comprises household consumption, investment, government, trade, production, prices, money, and employment blocks. The equilibrium-correction form is used for all the behavioral equations and the general→simple dynamic specification approach is adopted. Great efforts have been made to achieve the best possible blend of standard long-run theories, country-specific institutional features and short-run dynamics in data. The tracking performance of the model is evaluated. Forecasting and empirical investigation of a number of topical macroeconomic issues utilizing model simulations have shown the model to be immensely useful.

Suggested Citation

  • Duo Qin & Marie Anne Cagas & Geoffrey Ducanes & Xinhua He & Rui Liu & Shiguo Liu & Nedelyn Magtibay-Ramos, 2006. "A Macroeconometric Model of the Chinese Economy," Working Papers 553, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:553
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Qin, Duo & Song, Haiyan, 2009. "Sources of investment inefficiency: The case of fixed-asset investment in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 94-105, September.
    2. Qin, Duo & Quising, Pilipinas & He, Xinhua & Liu, Shiguo, 2005. "Modeling monetary transmission and policy in China," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 157-175, March.
    3. Qin, Duo & Song, Haiyan, 2009. "Sources of investment inefficiency: The case of fixed-asset investment in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 94-105, September.
    4. Qin, Duo & Cagas, Marie Anne & Quising, Pilipinas & He, Xin-Hua, 2006. "How much does investment drive economic growth in China?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 751-774, October.
    5. Duo Qin & Marie Anne Cagas & Geoffrey Ducanes & Xinhua He & Rui Liu & Shiguo Liu, 2005. "Income Disparity and Economic Growth: Evidence from China," Working Papers 548, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    6. J. J. Polak, 1997. "The IMF Monetary Model At Forty," IMF Working Papers 1997/049, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Hendry, David F., 1995. "Dynamic Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283164.
    8. J. J. Polak, 1957. "Monetary Analysis of Income Formation and Payments Problems," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 6(1), pages 1-50, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Qin, Duo & Cagas, Marie Anne & Quising, Pilipinas & He, Xin-Hua, 2006. "How much does investment drive economic growth in China?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 751-774, October.
    2. Vo Le & Kent Matthews & David Meenagh & Patrick Minford & Zhiguo Xiao, 2014. "Banking and the Macroeconomy in China: A Banking Crisis Deferred?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 123-161, February.
    3. Constantin Constantinescu, 2013. "Green economy - an opportunity during the global crisis," Social-Economic Debates, Association for Entreprenorial Spirit Promotion, vol. 2(2), pages 29-36, December.
    4. Duo Qin & Xinhua He, 2011. "Is the Chinese Currency Substantially Misaligned to Warrant Further Appreciation?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(8), pages 1288-1307, August.
    5. Beretta, Silvio & Iannini, Giuseppe, 2007. "A US-EU Economic Block versus China? How Viable is it? A Note," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 60(4), pages 409-420.
    6. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Matthews, Kent & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Xiao, Zhiguo, 2015. "China s financial crisis the role of banks and monetary policy," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2015/1, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    7. Qin, Duo & Cagas, Marie Anne & Ducanes, Geoffrey & Magtibay-Ramos, Nedelyn & Quising, Pilipinas, 2008. "Automatic leading indicators versus macroeconometric structural models: A comparison of inflation and GDP growth forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 399-413.
    8. Zhang, Mingzhu & He, Changzheng & Gu, Xin & Liatsis, Panos & Zhu, Bing, 2013. "D-GMDH: A novel inductive modelling approach in the forecasting of the industrial economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 514-520.
    9. Zhou, Nan & Price, Lynn & Yande, Dai & Creyts, Jon & Khanna, Nina & Fridley, David & Lu, Hongyou & Feng, Wei & Liu, Xu & Hasanbeigi, Ali & Tian, Zhiyu & Yang, Hongwei & Bai, Quan & Zhu, Yuezhong & Xio, 2019. "A roadmap for China to peak carbon dioxide emissions and achieve a 20% share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy by 2030," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(C), pages 793-819.
    10. Duo Qin & Xinhua He, 2011. "Is the Chinese Currency Substantially Misaligned to Warrant Further Appreciation?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(8), pages 1288-1307, August.
    11. Christian Glocker & Serguei Kaniovski, 2022. "Macroeconometric forecasting using a cluster of dynamic factor models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(1), pages 43-91, July.
    12. repec:sdb:journl:v:2:y:2013:i:2:p:29-36 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Lianhui Li & Chunyang Mu & Shaohu Ding & Zheng Wang & Runyang Mo & Yongfeng Song, 2015. "A Robust Weighted Combination Forecasting Method Based on Forecast Model Filtering and Adaptive Variable Weight Determination," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-22, December.
    14. Huang, Wei & Yang, Kailin & Ma, Jiming & Xu, Yaowu & Guo, Xinlei & Wang, Jue, 2018. "A new setting criterion of tailrace surge chambers for pumped-storage power plants," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 116(PA), pages 194-201.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroeconometric model; Chinese economy; Forecasts; Simulations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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