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Is the Chinese Currency Substantially Misaligned to Warrant Further Appreciation?

Author

Listed:
  • Duo Qin

    (Queen Mary University of London)

  • Xinhua He

    (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

Abstract

This study provides quarterly time-series estimates of the misalignment in the REER of the Renminbi (RMB). The estimation is based on a commonly used economic approach, but with a wider and more up-to-date coverage of data and a more extensive use of econometric modelling techniques. Our estimates corroborate and explain most of the previous estimates. More importantly, our estimates demonstrate that there is no significant undervaluation in the REER of the RMB though downward misalignment exists in the trilateral rates between the RMB, US$ and euro. The finding refutes the claim that RMB appreciation is the primary and necessary solution to the current global trade imbalance.

Suggested Citation

  • Duo Qin & Xinhua He, 2010. "Is the Chinese Currency Substantially Misaligned to Warrant Further Appreciation?," Working Papers 660, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:660
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Duo Qin & Xinhua He & Yimeng Liu, 2010. "Exchange Rate Misalignments: Historical Experience of Japan, Germany, Singapore and Taiwan Compared to China Today," Working Papers 667, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    2. Seghezza, Elena & Morelli, Pierluigi & Pittaluga, Giovanni B., 2017. "Reserve accumulation and exchange rate policy in China: The authoritarian elite's aim of political survival," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 40-51.
    3. Yin-Wong Cheung & Sven Steinkamp & Frank Westermann, 2020. "A Tale of Two Surplus Countries: China and Germany," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 131-158, February.
    4. Hu, May & Li, Yunfeng & Yang, Jingjing & Chao, Chi-Chur, 2016. "Actual intervention and verbal intervention in the Chinese RMB exchange rate," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 499-508.
    5. Xinhua He & Duo Qin & Yimeng Liu, 2012. "Exchange rate misalignments: a comparison of China today against recent historical experiences of Japan, Germany, Singapore and Taiwan," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 247-266, May.
    6. Roland Döhrn & Tobias Kitlinski & Torsten Schmidt & Simeon Vosen, 2010. "Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Ausland zur Jahreswende 2009/2010 - Belasteter Aufschwung," RWI Konjunkturbericht, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, pages 31, 03.
    7. Nan Hu & Yun (Ivy) Zhang & Songtao Tan, 2016. "Determinants of Chinese Cross-Border M&As," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 17(1), pages 209-233, May.
    8. Döhrn, Roland & Kitlinski, Tobias & Schmidt, Torsten & Vosen, Simeon, 2010. "Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Ausland: Belasteter Aufschwung," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 61(1), pages 5-35.
    9. Schröder, Marcel, 2017. "Mercantilism and China's hunger for international reserves," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 15-33.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real exchange; rate misalignment;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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