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Transfer Problem Dynamics: Macroeconomics Of The Franco-prussian War Indemnity

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Abstract

We study the classic transfer problem of predicting the effects of an international transfer on the terms of trade and the current account. A two-country model with debt and capital allows for realistic features of historical transfers: they follow wartime increases in government spending and are financed partly by borrowing. The model is applied to the largest historical transfer, the Franco-Prussian War indemnity of 1871-1873. In these three years, France transferred to Germany an amount equal to 22 percent of a year's GDP. When the transfer is combined with measured shocks to fiscal policy and a proxy for productivity shocks over the period, the model provides a very close fit to the historical sample paths of French GDP, terms of trade, net exports, and aggregate consumption. This makes a strong case for the dynamic general equilibrium approach to studying the transfer problem.

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  • Gregor W. Smith, 2005. "Transfer Problem Dynamics: Macroeconomics Of The Franco-prussian War Indemnity," Working Paper 1025, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    • Handle: RePEc:qed:wpaper:1025
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    5. Boileau, Martin & Normandin, Michel, 2008. "Dynamics of the current account and interest differentials," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 35-52, January.
    6. Gül Ertan Özgüzer, 2009. "Worthy Transfers? A Dynamic Analysis of Turkey's Accession to the European Union," 2009 Meeting Papers 781, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Ram Sewak Dubey & Minwook Kang, 2019. "Transfer paradox in a stable equilibrium," Economic Theory Bulletin, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 7(2), pages 259-269, December.
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    9. Bodenstein, Martin, 2013. "Equilibrium stability in open economy models," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 1-13.
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    11. Pandey, Dharen Kumar & Lucey, Brian M. & Kumar, Satish, 2023. "Border disputes, conflicts, war, and financial markets research: A systematic review," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    12. Trionfetti, Federico, 2018. "Firm heterogeneity, comparative advantage and the transfer problem," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 246-258.
    13. Boileau, Martin & Normandin, Michel, 2008. "Closing international real business cycle models with restricted financial markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 733-756, September.
    14. Michel Normandin & Martin Boileau, 2004. "The Current Account and the Interest Differential In Canada," Cahiers de recherche 04-09, HEC Montréal, Institut d'économie appliquée.
    15. Devereux, Michael B. & Smith, Gregor W., 2007. "Transfer problem dynamics: Macroeconomics of the Franco-Prussian war indemnity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2375-2398, November.
    16. Stéphane Auray & Aurélien Eyquem, 2014. "War, Taxes and Trade," Working Papers 2014-29, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    17. Johri, Alok & Letendre, Marc-André & Luo, Daqing, 2011. "Organizational capital and the international co-movement of investment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 511-523.
    18. Bodenstein, Martin, 2011. "Closing large open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 160-177, July.
    19. International Monetary Fund, 2008. "Macroeconomic Effects of EU Transfers in New Member States," IMF Working Papers 2008/223, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Kaufmann, Christoph & Attinasi, Maria Grazia & Hauptmeier, Sebastian, 2023. "Macroeconomic stabilisation properties of a euro area unemployment insurance scheme," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
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    23. Emek Karaca & Mustafa Tugan, 2017. "Aggregate Dynamics after a Shock to Monetary Policy in Developing Countries," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(1), pages 261-296, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    transfer problem; current account; terms of trade;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • N14 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: 1913-

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