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Vulnerability to Climatic Variability: An Assessment of Drought Prevalence on Water Resources Availability and Implications for the Ugandan Economy

Author

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  • Nicholas Kilimani

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

Abstract

The volatile changes in climate are increasingly becoming a threat to many economies globally. This study assesses Uganda’s vulnerability to climatic variability in the context of how these volatile changes in climate are likely to affect long-run water resources availability. This is done by using household survey data, rainfall data as well as findings from a water resource accounting study on Uganda. First, we use the results from the water accounts to establish the current level of demand for available water resources. Second, these findings are mirrored to the drought prevalence results with a view to highlight the potential adverse affects on water availability, and ultimately economic activity in Uganda. Whereas the country’s water resource accounting position shows that the current level of water resources is still adequate to meet current demand, drought is affecting economic activity primarily in the agricultural sector since it is rain-fed. It is also affecting the water recharge system as a big proportion of precipitation is lost through evapo-transpiration. This has implications for long-run water availability for the country. The findings point to the need for policy interventions that can ensure optimal water use in the economy. These may include improved hydrological planning and the development of water supply infrastructure.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicholas Kilimani, 2015. "Vulnerability to Climatic Variability: An Assessment of Drought Prevalence on Water Resources Availability and Implications for the Ugandan Economy," Working Papers 201562, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:201562
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Moses A. Ojara & Yunsheng Lou & Lawrence Aribo & Silvia Namumbya & Md. Jalal Uddin, 2020. "Dry spells and probability of rainfall occurrence for Lake Kyoga Basin in Uganda, East Africa," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 100(2), pages 493-514, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Water accounting; Drought; Standardized Precipitation Index; Economic activity; Uganda;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

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