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Modeling and forecasting remittances in Bangladesh using the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology

Author

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  • NYONI, THABANI

Abstract

This paper uses annual time series data on remittances into Bangladesh from 1976 to 2017, to model and forecast remittances using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA technique. Diagnostic tests indicate that REM is I (2). The study presents the ARIMA (2, 2, 0) model for predicting remittances in Bangladesh. The diagnostic tests further show that the presented parsimonious model is stable and acceptable for predicting remittances in Bangladesh. The results of the study apparently show that remittances inflows into Bangladesh are on a downwards trajectory. The paper suggests the need for strengthening Bangladesh’s emigration policy in order to improve remittances inflows into Bangladesh.

Suggested Citation

  • Nyoni, Thabani, 2019. "Modeling and forecasting remittances in Bangladesh using the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology," MPRA Paper 92463, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:92463
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nyoni, Thabani, 2018. "Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach to predicting net FDI inflows in Zimbabwe," MPRA Paper 87737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Abu Siddique & E. A. Selvanathan & Saroja Selvanathan, 2011. "Remittances and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Bangladesh, India and Sri Lanka," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(8), pages 1045-1062, October.
    3. Nyoni, Thabani, 2018. "Modeling and Forecasting Naira / USD Exchange Rate In Nigeria: a Box - Jenkins ARIMA approach," MPRA Paper 88622, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Aug 2018.
    4. Tamanna Islam & Ashfaque A. Mohib & Shahnaz Zarin Haque, 2018. "Econometric Models for Forecasting Remittances of Bangladesh," Business and Management Studies, Redfame publishing, vol. 4(1), pages 1-9, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bangladesh; forecasting; remittances;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • F24 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Remittances

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