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Will the United States of America (USA) be a beneficiary of the Alburg (1998) and Becker et al (1999) prophecies? Recent insights from the Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach

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  • NYONI, THABANI

Abstract

Employing annual time series data on total population in the USA from 1960 to 2017, we model and forecast total population over the next 3 decades using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA approach. Diagnostic tests show that USA annual total population data is I (2). Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (0, 2, 3) model. The diagnostic tests indicate that the presented model is very stable and quite suitable. The results of the study reveal that total population in USA will continue to sharply rise in the next three decades. Considering a highly educated labor force, coupled with latest technological advancements, USA is likely to be one of the first beneficiaries of the Ahlburg (1998) and Becker et al (1999) prophecies. In order to stay in the realm of the aforementioned prophecies, USA should take note of the 3-fold policy recommendations put forward.

Suggested Citation

  • Nyoni, Thabani, 2019. "Will the United States of America (USA) be a beneficiary of the Alburg (1998) and Becker et al (1999) prophecies? Recent insights from the Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach," MPRA Paper 92459, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:92459
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Edward L. Glaeser & Gary S. Becker & Kevin M. Murphy, 1999. "Population and Economic Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 145-149, May.
    2. Pflaumer, Peter, 1992. "Forecasting US population totals with the Box-Jenkins approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 329-338, November.
    3. Nyoni, Thabani, 2018. "Modeling and Forecasting Naira / USD Exchange Rate In Nigeria: a Box - Jenkins ARIMA approach," MPRA Paper 88622, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Aug 2018.
    4. Nyoni, Thabani, 2018. "Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach to predicting net FDI inflows in Zimbabwe," MPRA Paper 87737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecasting; population; USA;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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