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"Incredible India"-an empirical confrimation from the Box-Jenkins ARIMA technique

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  • NYONI, THABANI

Abstract

“Incredible !ndia”, is India’s tourism maxim. Using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA approach, this study will attempt to examine the validity and suitability of this maxim. Does tourism data conform to this mind-blowing motto? Is India really incredible? What are the subsequent policy directions? The study uses annual time series data covering the period 1981 to 2017. Using annual time series data, ranging over the period 1981 to 2017, the study applied the general ARIMA technique in order to model and forecast tourist arrivals in India. The ADF tests indicate that the foreign tourists arrivals series in I (2). The study, based on the minimum MAPE value, finally presented the ARIMA (2, 2, 5) model as the appropriate model to forecast foreign tourist arrivals in India. Analysis of the residuals of the ARIMA (2, 2, 5) model indicate that the selected model is stable and appropriate for forecasting foreign tourist arrivals in India. The forecasted foreign tourist arrivals over the period 2018 to 2028 show a sharp upward trend. This proves beyond any reasonable doubt that indeed in India is incredible – tourists all over the world are expected to continue flowing to India because India is just incredible! Surely, tourism data conforms to the motto “Atithidevo Bhava”. The study boasts of three policy directions that are envisioned to add more positive changes in India’s tourism sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Nyoni, Thabani, 2019. ""Incredible India"-an empirical confrimation from the Box-Jenkins ARIMA technique," MPRA Paper 96909, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:96909
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Prasert Chaitip & Chukiat Chaiboonsri & N. Rangaswamy & Siriporn Mcdowall, 2009. "Forecasting with X-12-Arima: International Tourist Arrivals to India," Annals of the University of Petrosani, Economics, University of Petrosani, Romania, vol. 9(1), pages 107-128.
    2. Nyoni, Thabani, 2019. "Sri Lanka – the wonder of Asia: analyzing monthly tourist arrivals in the post-war era," MPRA Paper 96790, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Prasert Chaitip & Chukiat Chaiboonsri, 2009. "Forecasting with X-12-ARIMA and ARFIMA: International Tourist Arrivals to India," Annals of the University of Petrosani, Economics, University of Petrosani, Romania, vol. 9(3), pages 147-162.
    4. Nyoni, Thabani, 2018. "Modeling and Forecasting Naira / USD Exchange Rate In Nigeria: a Box - Jenkins ARIMA approach," MPRA Paper 88622, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Aug 2018.
    5. Balogh, Peter & Kovacs, Sandor & Chaiboonsri, Chukiat & Chaitip, Prasert, 2009. "Forecasting with X-12-ARIMA: International tourist arrivals to India and Thailand," APSTRACT: Applied Studies in Agribusiness and Commerce, AGRIMBA, vol. 3(1-2), pages 1-19.
    6. Nyoni, Thabani, 2018. "Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach to predicting net FDI inflows in Zimbabwe," MPRA Paper 87737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Muzi Zhang & Junyi Li & Bing Pan & Gaojun Zhang, 2018. "Weekly Hotel Occupancy Forecasting of a Tourism Destination," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-17, November.
    8. Andrea Saayman & Ilse Botha, 2015. "Evaluating Non-Linear Approaches in Forecasting Tourist Arrivals," Working Papers 492, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ARIMA; forecasting; foreign tourist arrivals; India; tourism;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

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    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

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