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Impacts of GST reforms on efficiency, growth and redistribution of income in India: A Dynamic CGE Analysis

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  • Bhattarai, Keshab

Abstract

Goods and service tax (GST) introduced as a ‘good and simple tax’ on 1 July 2017 by the Modi government is the boldest measure of tax reform so far in India. The major aim of this paper is to evaluate the micro and macro impacts of the goods and services taxes (GST) using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model of the Indian economy. This is an original contribution as no such work is found in the literature. This paper applies a dynamic CGE model calibrated to the micro-consistent input-output data of the Indian economy to assess impacts of GST on the efficiency in allocation of resources among production sectors, growth of income and employment over time, the redistribution of income among households in India. While GST reforms will improve specialization in productions of goods and services among the major economic sectors of India by removing distortions in the production and distribution of goods and services, transparency it brings in the tax system will help to maintain above seven percent continuous growth rate in output, investment and physical capital. It also promotes expansion in human capital and the financial system. Anti-corruption measures including recent demonetization of large denomination notes and digitization of economic transactions along with GST reforms will add to infrastructure including construction and expansion of communication networks, massive electrification, development of rail, road, air and shipping networks. By creating better opportunities for education and training for the younger generation, health services for all continuous reforms in direct and indirect taxes will bring speedier growth of income and employment along with more balanced distribution of income.

Suggested Citation

  • Bhattarai, Keshab, 2017. "Impacts of GST reforms on efficiency, growth and redistribution of income in India: A Dynamic CGE Analysis," MPRA Paper 92139, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:92139
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Keshab Bhattarai, 2017. "Welfare and Distributional Impacts of Financial Liberalization in an Open Economy: Lessons from a Multi-Sectoral Dynamic CGE Model for Nepal," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(1), pages 181-198, January.
    2. Bishnu, Monisankar & Ghate, Chetan & Gopalakrishnan, Pawan, 2016. "Factor income taxation, growth, and investment specific technological change," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 133-152.
    3. Jonathan Haughton & Paul Bachman & Keshab Bhattarai & David G. Tuerck, 2017. "The Distributional Effects of the Trump and Clinton Tax Proposals," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 45(4), pages 453-472, December.
    4. Dixon, Peter B. & Parmenter, B.R., 1996. "Computable general equilibrium modelling for policy analysis and forecasting," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: H. M. Amman & D. A. Kendrick & J. Rust (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 3-85, Elsevier.
    5. Michael Keen, 2009. "What Do (and Don't) We Know about the Value Added Tax? A Review of Richard M. Bird and Pierre-Pascal Gendron's The VAT in Developing and Transitional Countries," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 47(1), pages 159-170, March.
    6. Raghbendra Jha, 2013. "Indirect Tax Reform and Fiscal Federalism in India," ASARC Working Papers 2013-09, The Australian National University, Australia South Asia Research Centre.
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    Cited by:

    1. Vijay Victor & Joshy Joseph Karakunnel & Swetha Loganathan & Daniel Francois Meyer, 2021. "From a Recession to the COVID-19 Pandemic: Inflation–Unemployment Comparison between the UK and India," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-19, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    GST; Dynamic CGE; India;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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