IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cop/wpaper/g-136.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Explaining a dynamic CGE simulation with a trade-focused back-of-the-envelope analysis: the effects of eCommerce on Australia

Author

Listed:
  • Peter B. Dixon
  • Maureen T. Rimmer

Abstract

This paper was written in honour of Peter J. Lloyd on the occasion of his retirement and celebrates his preeminence as a theorist and practitioner of the economics of international trade. Besides a surprising number of leading trade theorists, Australia has added significantly to empirical work on trade issues via applied general equilibrium models, especially the ORANI and MONASH models. This paper focuses on one intriguing new topic, namely, the welfare and other economy-wide effects of the development of eCommerce. The direct effects of eCommerce are presented to the Monash model as shocks to 14 sets of technology, preference and trade variables. The shocks were suggested in group discussions with people knowledgeable in the operation of eCommerce and drawn from the sectors most likely to be affected by it. On the conservative assumptions made about the size of the shocks, eCommerce will after about 10 years allow a sustained increase in private and public real consumption of about 3 per cent. This and other results of the MONASH simulation are explained with the help of a relatively simple and small BOTE (back-of-the-envelope) model.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2002. "Explaining a dynamic CGE simulation with a trade-focused back-of-the-envelope analysis: the effects of eCommerce on Australia," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-136, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    • Handle: RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-136
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.copsmodels.com/ftp/workpapr/g-136.pdf
    File Function: Initial version, 2002-12
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.copsmodels.com/elecpapr/g-136.htm
    File Function: Local abstract: may link to additional material.
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Quiggin, 1997. "Estimating the Benefits of Hilmer and Related Reforms," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 30(3), pages 256-272, September.
    2. Dixon, Peter B. & Parmenter, B.R., 1996. "Computable general equilibrium modelling for policy analysis and forecasting," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: H. M. Amman & D. A. Kendrick & J. Rust (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 3-85, Elsevier.
    3. Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 1999. "Changes in Indirect Taxes in Australia: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 32(4), pages 327-348, December.
    4. Madden, Gary G & Coble-Neal, Grant, 2002. "Internet economics and policy: An Australian perspective," MPRA Paper 10686, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Robert E. Litan & Alice M. Rivlin, 2001. "Projecting the Economic Impact of the Internet," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 313-317, May.
    6. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685, December.
    7. Hans M. Amman & David A. Kendrick, . "Computational Economics," Online economics textbooks, SUNY-Oswego, Department of Economics, number comp1.
    8. repec:bla:ecorec:v:78:y:2002:i:242:p:327-42 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:bla:ecorec:v:78:y:2002:i:242:p:343-57 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Qi Zhang & Xinxin Zhang & Qi Cui & Weining Cao & Ling He & Yexin Zhou & Xiaofan Li & Yunpeng Fan, 2022. "The Unequal Effect of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Labour Market and Income Inequality in China: A Multisectoral CGE Model Analysis Coupled with a Micro-Simulation Approach," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(3), pages 1-21, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Piermartini, Roberta & Teh, Robert, 2005. "Demystifying modelling methods for trade policy," WTO Discussion Papers 10, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    2. Eduardo Amaral Haddad & Fernando Salgueiro Perobelli, 2004. "Trade Liberalization And Regional Inequality: Do Transportation Costs Impose A Spatial Poverty Trap?," Anais do XXXII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 32nd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 131, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    3. Hong Zhang, 2004. "The impact of China's accession to the WTO on its economy: an imperfect competitive CGE analysis," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 119-137.
    4. Guilhoto, Joaquim José Martins & Hasegawa, Marcos & Lopes, Ricardo Luis, 2002. "A estrutura teórica do modelo inter-regional para a economia brasileira - MIBRA [The theoretical structure of inter regional model for the Brazilian economy - MIBRA]," MPRA Paper 54019, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Eduardo Haddad & Alexandre A. Porsse & Eduardo P. Ribeiro, 2006. "Modeling Interjurisdictional Tax Competition in a Federal System," ERSA conference papers ersa06p359, European Regional Science Association.
    6. Esmedekh Lkhanaajav, 2016. "CoPS-style CGE modelling and analysis," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-264, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    7. Östblom, Göran, 1999. "An Environmental Medium Term Economic Model - EMEC," Working Papers 69, National Institute of Economic Research.
    8. Kumaraswamy Vela Velupillai, 2013. "Turing's Economics. A Birth Centennial Homage," Economia politica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 1, pages 13-32.
    9. Haddad Eduardo Amaral & Okuyama Yasuhide, 2016. "Spatial Propagation of the Economic Impacts of Bombing: The Case of the 2006 War in Lebanon," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 12(3), pages 225-256, December.
    10. Randall, Alan & Tisdell, Clement A. & Trewin, Ray & Singh, Satbir & Simmons, Phil & Adams, Philip D. & Loane, Bill, 1999. "Book reviews," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 43(1), pages 1-16, March.
    11. James A. Giesecke & Nhi H. Tran & Robert Waschik, 2021. "Should Australia be concerned by Beijing’s trade threats: modelling the economic costs of a restriction on imports of Australian coal," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 65(1), pages 1-22, January.
    12. Haddad, Eduardo, 2012. "Spatial Perspectives of Improving Competition in Lebanon," TD NEREUS 2-2012, Núcleo de Economia Regional e Urbana da Universidade de São Paulo (NEREUS).
    13. Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2003. "State-level Dynamic CGE Modeling for Forecasting and Policy Analysis," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers ip-82, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    14. Apokin, Alexander (Апокин, Александр) & Gnidchenko, Andrey (Гнидченко, Андрей) & Sabelnikova, Ekaterina (Сабельникова, Екатерина), 2017. "Import Substitution Potential and Gains from Economic Integration: Disaggregated Estimations [Потенциал Импортозамещения И Выгоды От Экономической Интеграции: Дезагрегированные Оценки]," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 2, pages 44-71, April.
    15. Peter B. Dixon, 2006. "Evidence-based Trade Policy Decision Making in Australia and the Development of Computable General Equilibrium Modelling," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-163, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    16. Hasegawa, Marcos & Guilhoto, Joaquim José Martins, 2006. "Investimento e produtividade dos fatores primários: uma análise de equilíbrio geral aplicado [Investment and productivity of primary factors: a general applied general equilibrium analysis]," MPRA Paper 54555, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. K. Vela Velupillai & Stefano Zambelli, 2010. "Computation in Economics," ASSRU Discussion Papers 1001, ASSRU - Algorithmic Social Science Research Unit.
    18. Wesseh, Presley K. & Lin, Boqiang & Atsagli, Philip, 2016. "Environmental and welfare assessment of fossil-fuels subsidies removal: A computable general equilibrium analysis for Ghana," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 116(P1), pages 1172-1179.
    19. Tien Duc Pham & Son Nghiem & Larry Dwyer, 2018. "The economic impacts of a changing visa fee for Chinese tourists to Australia," Tourism Economics, , vol. 24(1), pages 109-126, February.
    20. Jussila, Mira & Tamminen, Saara & Kinnunen, Jouko, 2012. "The estimation of LES demand elasticities for CGE models," Working Papers 39, VATT Institute for Economic Research.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • L81 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Retail and Wholesale Trade; e-Commerce

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-136. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Mark Horridge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cpmonau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.