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Output Costs of Currency Crises: Shocks, Policies and Cycles

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  • Nakatani, Ryota

Abstract

This paper studies output declines during currency crises based on the theoretical model by Nakatani (2016, 2017a), highlighting the role of shocks that trigger crises. Using panel data on 49 developing countries, we find that both productivity shocks in the real sector and shocks to the country’s risk premium in financial markets affect the output costs of currency crises, which are 4% of GDP on average and 8% for severe crises. During severe currency crises in Asian and Latin-American countries, both productivity shocks and exchange rate overvaluation were found to be important factors in explaining large output losses.

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  • Nakatani, Ryota, 2018. "Output Costs of Currency Crises: Shocks, Policies and Cycles," MPRA Paper 83549, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:83549
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    Cited by:

    1. Ryota Nakatani, 2023. "Productivity drivers of infrastructure companies: Network industries utilizing economies of scale in the digital era," Annals of Public and Cooperative Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 94(4), pages 1273-1298, December.
    2. Nakatani, Ryota, 2018. "Adjustment to negative price shocks by a commodity exporting economy: Does exchange rate flexibility resolve a balance of payments crisis?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 13-35.
    3. Ryota Nakatani, 2019. "Firm performance and corporate finance in New Zealand," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(13), pages 1118-1124, July.
    4. Nakatani, Ryota, 2021. "Total factor productivity enablers in the ICT industry: A cross-country firm-level analysis," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(9).
    5. Nakatani, Ryota, 2022. "Productivity drivers of infrastructure companies: network industries to maximize economies of scale in the digital era," MPRA Paper 115531, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Nakatani, Ryota, 2020. "Macroprudential policy and the probability of a banking crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1169-1186.
    7. Ryota Nakatani, 2019. "A Possible Approach to Fiscal Rules in Small Islands — Incorporating Natural Disasters and Climate Change," IMF Working Papers 2019/186, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Ryota Nakatani, 2021. "Fiscal Rules for Natural Disaster- and Climate Change-Prone Small States," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-26, March.
    9. Ryota Nakatani, 2017. "The Effects of Productivity Shocks, Financial Shocks, and Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates: An Application of the Currency Crisis Model and Implications for Emerging Market Crises," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(11), pages 2545-2561, November.
    10. Ryota Nakatani, 2024. "Multifactor productivity growth enhancers across industries and countries: firm-level evidence," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 14(2), pages 401-446, June.
    11. Ryota Nakatani, 2024. "Food companies' productivity dynamics: Exploring the role of intangible assets," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(1), pages 185-226, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Growth; Currency Crisis; Productivity; Risk Premium; Exchange Rate Overvaluation; Developing Countries;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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