IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bas/econst/y2018i3p109-124.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Testing for the Causality between Interest Rate and Stock Market Performance in Nigeria

Author

Listed:
  • Ditimi Amassoma
  • O. Adeleke

Abstract

In this paper, the causal relationship between interest rate and stock market performance is investigated using a VECM-based Granger causality test on annual time series data from 1975 to 2016. The rationale for this study emanates from the unpredictable behaviour of the Nigerian stock exchange from the outset of the global financial economic crisis from 2007/8 till date couple to the increasingly high key policy rates like interest rate by the CBN that has refused to drop. The results reveal that the interest rate exerted a negative but statistically insignificant relation to stock market performance in the long run. In addition, Granger causality test result noted that there is no causality between interest rate and stock market performance. Thereby, advocating that other macroeconomic factors predict stock market activities better than the interest rate as suggested by the bi-directional causality between exchange rate and All Share index in the result. The implication is that a proper portfolio diversification should be ensued; via a fair exchange rate policy can stimulate the activities of the stock market and vice-versa. Consequently, the paper recommends that the government should do justice to her monetary policy by way of trimming down its interest rate in such a way that will encourage both local and foreign investors to borrow funds at a cheaper rate to invest in the stock market which in turn boost economic well being of the country.

Suggested Citation

  • Ditimi Amassoma & O. Adeleke, 2018. "Testing for the Causality between Interest Rate and Stock Market Performance in Nigeria," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 3, pages 109-124.
    • Handle: RePEc:bas:econst:y:2018:i:3:p:109-124
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ceeol.com/search/article-detail?id=695664
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arshad Hasan & M. Tariq Javed, 2009. "An Empirical Investigation of the Causal Relationship among Monetary Variables and Equity Market Returns," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 14(1), pages 115-137, Jan-Jun.
    2. Fama, Eugene F. & Schwert, G. William, 1977. "Asset returns and inflation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 115-146, November.
    3. Thorbecke, Willem, 1997. "On Stock Market Returns and Monetary Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 635-654, June.
    4. Campbell, John Y., 1987. "Stock returns and the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 373-399, June.
    5. Stephen A. Ross, 2013. "The Arbitrage Theory of Capital Asset Pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 1, pages 11-30, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    7. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    8. Nasseh, Alireza & Strauss, Jack, 2000. "Stock prices and domestic and international macroeconomic activity: a cointegration approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 229-245.
    9. Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-228, August.
    10. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    11. Hagerman, Robert L, 1978. "More Evidence on the Distribution of Security Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(4), pages 1213-1221, September.
    12. Moolman, Elna, 2004. "A Markov switching regime model of the South African business cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 631-646, July.
    13. Charles Adjasi & Nicholas Biekpe, 2006. "Interest Rate and Stock Market Returns in Africa," The African Finance Journal, Africagrowth Institute, vol. 8(2), pages 12-30.
    14. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    15. Teppo Martikainen & Vesa Puttonen, 1996. "Sequential information arrival in the Finnish stock index derivatives markets," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 207-217.
    16. Gjerde, Oystein & Saettem, Frode, 1999. "Causal relations among stock returns and macroeconomic variables in a small, open economy," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 61-74, January.
    17. Mookerjee, Rajen & Yu, Qiao, 1997. "Macroeconomic variables and stock prices in a small open economy: The case of Singapore," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 377-388, July.
    18. Mukherjee, Tarun K & Naka, Atsuyuki, 1995. "Dynamic Relations between Macroeconomic Variables and the Japanese Stock Market: An Application of a Vector Error Correction Model," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 18(2), pages 223-237, Summer.
    19. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2005. "Monetary Policy, Macro-stability and Growth," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 6(4), pages 123-147, October.
    20. Shanken, Jay, 1982. "The Arbitrage Pricing Theory: Is It Testable?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(5), pages 1129-1140, December.
    21. Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R., 2001. "The theory and practice of corporate finance: evidence from the field," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2-3), pages 187-243, May.
    22. Orawan Ratanapakorn & Subhash Sharma, 2007. "Dynamic analysis between the US stock returns and the macroeconomic variables," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(5), pages 369-377.
    23. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2004. "Taking stock: monetary policy transmission to equity markets," Working Paper Series 354, European Central Bank.
    24. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July.
    25. Merton H. Miller & Franco Modigliani, 1961. "Dividend Policy, Growth, and the Valuation of Shares," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34, pages 411-411.
    26. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    27. Rogalski, Richard J, 1984. "New Findings Regarding Day-of-the-Week Returns over Trading and Non-trading Periods: A Note," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(5), pages 1603-1614, December.
    28. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1995. "Symposium on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 3-10, Fall.
    29. Lynge, Morgan J. & Zumwalt, J. Kenton, 1980. "An Empirical Study of the Interest Rate Sensitivity of Commercial Bank Returns: A Multi-Index Approach," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 731-742, September.
    30. Abeyratna Gunasekarage & Anirut Pisedtasalasai & David M. Power, 2004. "Macroeconomic Influence on the Stock Market: Evidence from an Emerging Market in South Asia," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 3(3), pages 285-304, December.
    31. Richardson, Matthew P & Smith, Tom, 1994. "A Unified Approach to Testing for Serial Correlation in Stock Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(3), pages 371-399, July.
    32. Tarun K. Mukherjee & Atsuyuki Naka, 1995. "Dynamic Relations Between Macroeconomic Variables And The Japanese Stock Market: An Application Of A Vector Error Correction Model," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 18(2), pages 223-237, June.
    33. Flannery, Mark J & James, Christopher M, 1984. "The Effect of Interest Rate Changes on the Common Stock Returns of Financial Institutions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1141-1153, September.
    34. Blattberg, Robert C & Gonedes, Nicholas J, 1974. "A Comparison of the Stable and Student Distributions as Statistical Models for Stock Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 47(2), pages 244-280, April.
    35. Alok Kumar Mishra, 2004. "Stock Market and Foreign Exchange Market in India: Are they Related?," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 5(2), pages 209-232, September.
    36. Lee, Bong-Soo, 1992. "Causal Relations among Stock Returns, Interest Rates, Real Activity, and Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1591-1603, September.
    37. Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-565, September.
    38. Mandelker, Gershon & Tandon, Kishore, 1985. "Common stock returns, real activity, money, and inflation: Some international evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 267-286, June.
    39. Mohammed Nishat & Rozina Shaheen, 2004. "Macroeconomic Factors and Pakistani Equity Market," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 43(4), pages 619-637.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Onneetse L Sikalao-Lekobane, 2014. "Do Macroeconomic Variables Influence Domestic Stock Market Price Behaviour in Emerging Markets? A Johansen Cointegration Approach to the Botswana Stock Market," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 6(5), pages 363-372.
    2. Andreas Humpe & Peter Macmillan, 2007. "Can macroeconomic variables explain long term stock market movements? A comparison of the US and Japan," CDMA Working Paper Series 200720, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
    3. Pramod Kumar, Naik & Puja, Padhi, 2012. "The impact of Macroeconomic Fundamentals on Stock Prices revisited: An Evidence from Indian Data," MPRA Paper 38980, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Gupta, Rakesh & Yuan, Tian & Roca, Eduardo, 2016. "Linkages between the ADR market and home country macroeconomic fundamentals: Evidence in the context of the BRICs," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 230-239.
    5. Bhuiyan, Erfan M. & Chowdhury, Murshed, 2020. "Macroeconomic variables and stock market indices: Asymmetric dynamics in the US and Canada," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 62-74.
    6. Sellin, Peter, 1998. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Working Paper Series 72, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    7. Peter Sellin, 2001. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(4), pages 491-541, September.
    8. Tarak Nath Sahu & Krishna Dayal Pandey, 2020. "Money Supply and Equity Price Movements During the Liberalized Period in India," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 21(1), pages 108-123, February.
    9. Mohammad Joarder & Monir Ahmed & Tahsina Haque & Syed Hasanuzzaman, 2014. "An empirical testing of informational efficiency in Bangladesh capital market," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 63-87, February.
    10. Joseph Ato Forson & Jakkaphong Janrattanagul, 2014. "Selected Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Market Movements: Empirical evidence from Thailand," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 8(2), June.
    11. Arshad Hasan & M. Tariq Javed, 2009. "An Empirical Investigation of the Causal Relationship among Monetary Variables and Equity Market Returns," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 14(1), pages 115-137, Jan-Jun.
    12. Molefhi, Koketso, 2021. "The Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on Capital Market Development in Botswana’s Economy," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 9(2), April.
    13. Sumit Kumar Maji & Arindam Laha & Debasish Sur, 2020. "Dynamic Nexuses between Macroeconomic Variables and Sectoral Stock Indices: Reflection from Indian Manufacturing Industry," Management and Labour Studies, XLRI Jamshedpur, School of Business Management & Human Resources, vol. 45(3), pages 239-269, August.
    14. Pallegedara, Asankha, 2012. "Dynamic relationships between stock market performance and short term interest rate Empirical evidence from Sri Lanka," MPRA Paper 40773, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Khan, Mashrur Mustaque & Yousuf, Ahmed Sadek, 2013. "Macroeconomic Forces and Stock Prices:Evidence from the Bangladesh Stock Market," MPRA Paper 46528, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Onur Şeyranlıoğlu & Çağlar Sözen & Ferhat İspiroğlu, 2024. "Interaction Between Stock Exchange And Interest Rate in Turkey: A Hidden Cointegration and Asymmetric Causality Analysis," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, vol. 0(40), pages 22-34, June.
    17. Manamba EPAPHRA & Evidence SALEMA, 2018. "The impact of macroeconomic variables on stock prices in Tanzania," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 12-41, March.
    18. ALAM Nafis & TAN Ee Chain, 2012. "Impact Of Financial Crisis On Stock Returns: Evidence From Singapore," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 7(2), pages 5-19, August.
    19. Emeka Nkoro & Aham Kelvin Uko, 2013. "A Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Model of the Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Stock Returns: Empirical Evidence from the Nigerian Stock Market," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 4(4), pages 38-51, October.
    20. Abbas Ghulam & Bhowmik Roni & Koju Laxmi & Wang Shouyang, 2017. "Cointegration and Causality Relationship Between Stock Market, Money Market and Foreign Exchange Market in Pakistan," Journal of Systems Science and Information, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-20, February.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bas:econst:y:2018:i:3:p:109-124. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Diana Dimitrova (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ikbasbg.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.