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The effects of macroeconomic factors on stock returns: Istanbul Stock Market

Author

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  • Husam Rjoub
  • Turgut Türsoy
  • Nil Günsel

Abstract

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to investigate the performance of the arbitrage pricing theory (APT) in the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) on a monthly basis, for the period January 2001 to September 2005. Design/methodology/approach - This study examines six pre‐specified macroeconomic variables which are: the term structure of interest rate, unanticipated inflation, risk premium, exchange rate and money supply. All these are the same as those used by Chen, Roll and Roll for the US market. In this study, the authors develop one more variable namely unemployment rate, which has a relation with the stock return. Findings - Using the OLS technique, the authors observed that there are some differences among the market portfolios. Before starting to comment on the result of OLS, the serial correlation problem was discussed by using Durbin‐Watson statistics. In this study, the critical values were ranged from between 1.33 and 1.81 (T=57,K=6). Our test results confirmed that in ten out of the 13 there were no serial correlations. Our results show that there are big differences among market portfolios against macroeconomic variables through the variation ofR2. In the remaining portfolios; there was no evidence to suggest. Research limitations/implications - In this paper, the authors face a problem that was no corporate bond in Turkey's market. Originality/value - This analysis appears to be the first empirical test of APT using the CAPM formula for finding the risk premium point for ISE.

Suggested Citation

  • Husam Rjoub & Turgut Türsoy & Nil Günsel, 2009. "The effects of macroeconomic factors on stock returns: Istanbul Stock Market," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 26(1), pages 36-45, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:sefpps:v:26:y:2009:i:1:p:36-45
    DOI: 10.1108/10867370910946315
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Camilleri, Silvio John & Scicluna, Nicolanne & Bai, Ye, 2019. "Do stock markets lead or lag macroeconomic variables? Evidence from select European countries," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 170-186.
    2. Muhammad Kamran Khan & Jian-Zhou Teng & Javed Pervaiz & Sunil Kumar Chaudhary, 2017. "Nexuses between Economic Factors and Stock Returns in China," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(9), pages 182-191, September.
    3. Tursoy, Turgut & Faisal, Faisal & Berk, Niyazi & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2018. "How do Stock Prices and Metal Prices Contribute to Economic Activity in Turkey? The Importance of Linear and Non-linear ARDL," MPRA Paper 88899, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Özge SEZGIN ALP & Fazil GÖKGÖZ & Güray KÜÇÜKKOCAOGLU, 2016. "Estimating Turkish Stock Market Returns With Apt Model: Cointegration And Vector Error Correction," Economic Review: Journal of Economics and Business, University of Tuzla, Faculty of Economics, vol. 14(1), pages 7-19, May.
    5. Aiman, Muhammad & Masih, Mansur, 2018. "Impact of macroeconomic factors on shariah and conventional stocks: Malaysian evidence," MPRA Paper 111736, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Caner Demir, 2019. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Stock Market Fluctuations: The Case of BIST-100," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-14, February.
    7. Renata Legenzova & Otilija Jurakovaite & Agne Galinskaite, 2017. "The Analysis of Dividend Announcement Impact on Stock Prices of Baltic Companies," Central European Business Review, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2017(1), pages 61-76.
    8. Thuy Thu Nguyen & Hong Thi Mai & Tram Thi Minh Tran, 2020. "Monetary Policy and Stock Market Returns: Evidence from ARDL Bounds Testing Approach for the Case of Vietnam," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 10(7), pages 758-777, July.
    9. Jasman Tuyon & Zamri Ahmad, 2018. "Behavioural Asset Pricing Determinants in a Factor and Style Investing Framework," Capital Markets Review, Malaysian Finance Association, vol. 26(2), pages 32-52.
    10. Turgut Tursoy, 2019. "The interaction between stock prices and interest rates in Turkey: empirical evidence from ARDL bounds test cointegration," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 5(1), pages 1-12, December.
    11. Parvinder Arora & Robert Killins & Prameela Gangineni, 2019. "REIT-Specific and Macroeconomic Determinants of REIT Returns: Evidence from Singapore," Accounting and Finance Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 8(3), pages 1-27, August.
    12. Jabir Esmaeil & Husam Rjoub & Wing-Keung Wong, 2020. "Do Oil Price Shocks and Other Factors Create Bigger Impacts on Islamic Banks than Conventional Banks?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-16, June.
    13. Husam RJOUB & Irfan CIVCIR & Nil Gunsel RESATOGLU, 2017. "Micro and Macroeconomic Determinants of Stock Prices: The Case of Turkish Banking Sector," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 150-166, March.
    14. Mubarak Rahman P. & Kuhan K. & Dr. V. Kavida, 2017. "Impact of Selected Macroeconomic Indicators on S & P BSE SME IPO Index," Indian Journal of Commerce and Management Studies, Educational Research Multimedia & Publications,India, vol. 8(1), pages 28-32, January.

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