IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/7879.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

An alternative approach to firms’ evaluation: expert systems and fuzzy logic

Author

Listed:
  • Magni, Carlo Alberto

Abstract

Discounted Cash Flow techniques are the generally accepted methods for valuing firms. Such methods do not provide explicit acknowledgment of the value determinants and overlook their interrelations. This paper proposes a different method of firm valuation based on fuzzy logic and expert systems. It does represent a conceptual transposition of Discounted Cash Flow techniques but, unlike the latter, it takes explicit account of quantitative and qualitative variables and their mutual integration. Financial, strategic and business aspects are considered by focusing on twenty-nine value drivers that are combined together via “if-then” rules. The output of the system is a real number in the interval [0,1], which represents the value-creation power of the firm. To corroborate the model a sensitivity analysis is conducted. The system may be used for rating and ranking firms as well as for assessing the impact of managers’ decisions on value creation and as a tool of corporate governance.

Suggested Citation

  • Magni, Carlo Alberto, 2004. "An alternative approach to firms’ evaluation: expert systems and fuzzy logic," MPRA Paper 7879, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:7879
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/7879/1/MPRA_paper_7879.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Magni, C. A. & Mastroleo G. & Facchinetti, G., 2001. "A Fuzzy expert system for solving ReaL-Option decision processes," Fuzzy Economic Review, International Association for Fuzzy-set Management and Economy (SIGEF), vol. 0(2), pages 51-73, November.
    2. Yao Chen & Luvai Motiwalla & M. Riaz Khan, 2004. "Using Super-Efficiency Dea To Evaluate Financial Performance Of E-Business Initiative In The Retail Industry," International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(02), pages 337-351.
    3. Richard S Ruback, 2002. "Capital Cash Flows: A Simple Approach to Valuing Risky Cash Flows," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 31(2), Summer.
    4. Myers, Stewart C, 1974. "Interactions of Corporate Financing and Investment Decisions-Implications for Capital Budgeting," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(1), pages 1-25, March.
    5. Jensen, Michael C. & Meckling, William H., 1976. "Theory of the firm: Managerial behavior, agency costs and ownership structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 305-360, October.
    6. Jensen, Michael C, 1986. "Agency Costs of Free Cash Flow, Corporate Finance, and Takeovers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(2), pages 323-329, May.
    7. Magni, Carlo Alberto, 2002. "Investment decisions in the theory of finance: Some antinomies and inconsistencies," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 206-217, February.
    8. Richard G. Sloan, 1996. "Using Earnings And Free Cash Flow To Evaluate Corporate Performance," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 9(1), pages 70-79, March.
    9. Herbert A. Simon, 1955. "A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 69(1), pages 99-118.
    10. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    11. Miao-Ling Wang & Hsiao-Fan Wang & Chih-Lung Lin, 2005. "Ranking Fuzzy Number Based On Lexicographic Screening Procedure," International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(04), pages 663-678.
    12. J. Philip Craiger & Michael D. Coovert & Mark S. Teachout, 2003. "Predicting Job Performance with a Fuzzy Rule-Based System," International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(03), pages 425-444.
    13. Lander, Diane M. & Pinches, George E., 1998. "Challenges to the Practical Implementation of Modeling and Valuing Real Options," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(3, Part 2), pages 537-567.
    14. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    15. Carlo Alberto Magni & Giovanni Mastroleo & Marina Vignola & Gisella Facchinetti, 2009. "Strategic options and expert systems: a fruitful marriage," Proyecciones Financieras y Valoración 6122, Master Consultores.
    16. Jing Liu & Doron Nissim & Jacob Thomas, 2002. "Equity Valuation Using Multiples," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(1), pages 135-172, March.
    17. Basilis Boutsinas, 2002. "Accessing Data Mining Rules Through Expert Systems," International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 1(04), pages 657-672.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Magni, Carlo Alberto, 2007. "Investment decisions, equivalent risk and bounded rationality," MPRA Paper 6073, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Carlo Alberto Magni & Stefano Malagoli & Andrea Marchioni & Giovanni Mastroleo, 2020. "Rating firms and sensitivity analysis," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 71(12), pages 1940-1958, December.
    3. Magni, Carlo Alberto, 2004. "Rating and ranking firms with fuzzy expert systems: the case of Camuzzi," MPRA Paper 5889, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Simone Pizzi & Giovanni Mastroleo & Andrea Venturelli & Fabio Caputo, 2024. "The digitalization of sustainability reporting processes: A conceptual framework," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 1040-1050, February.
    5. Fahimeh Aliakbari Nouri & Mohsen Shafiei Nikabadi & Laya Olfat, 2019. "The Role of Supply Chain Features in the Effectiveness of Sustainability Practices in the Service Supply Chain: Application of Fuzzy Rule-Based System," International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(03), pages 867-899, May.
    6. Simona Cosma & Giovanni Mastroleo & Paola Schwizer, 2018. "Assessing corporate governance quality: substance over form," Journal of Management & Governance, Springer;Accademia Italiana di Economia Aziendale (AIDEA), vol. 22(2), pages 457-493, June.
    7. Tomasz Korol & Anestis Fotiadis, 2016. "Applying Fuzzy Logic of Expert Knowledge for Accurate Predictive Algorithms of Customer Traffic Flows in Theme Parks," International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(06), pages 1451-1468, November.
    8. Marc Sanchez-Roger & María Dolores Oliver-Alfonso & Carlos Sanchís-Pedregosa, 2019. "Fuzzy Logic and Its Uses in Finance: A Systematic Review Exploring Its Potential to Deal with Banking Crises," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 7(11), pages 1-22, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Magni, Carlo Alberto, 2004. "Rating and ranking firms with fuzzy expert systems: the case of Camuzzi," MPRA Paper 5889, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Malagoli, Stefano & Mastroleo, Giovanni & Magni, Carlo Alberto, 2005. "The use of fuzzy logic and expert systems for rating and pricing firms: a new perspective on valuation," MPRA Paper 11958, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Magni, Carlo Alberto, 2007. "Investment decisions, equivalent risk and bounded rationality," MPRA Paper 6073, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Cuypers, I.R.P., 2009. "Essays on equity joint ventures, uncertainty and experience," Other publications TiSEM 8dc79e86-c625-467f-a450-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    5. Jianjun Miao, 2005. "Optimal Capital Structure and Industry Dynamics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(6), pages 2621-2659, December.
    6. Joao Carlos Monteiro & Jose António Filipe, 2012. "Managerial Flexibility in Turbulent Times of Crisis," International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, vol. 2(4), pages 263-263.
    7. Ahlers, Oliver & Hack, Andreas & Kellermanns, Franz W., 2014. "“Stepping into the buyers’ shoes”: Looking at the value of family firms through the eyes of private equity investors," Journal of Family Business Strategy, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 384-396.
    8. Guidi, Marco G.D. & Hillier, Joe & Tarbert, Heather, 2008. "Maximizing the firm's value to society through ethical business decisions: Incorporating ‘moral debt’ claims," CRITICAL PERSPECTIVES ON ACCOUNTING, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 603-619.
    9. Véronique Bastin & Albert Corhay & Georges Hübner & Pierre-Armand Michel, 2002. "Development path and capital structure of belgian biotechnology firms," Working Paper Research 30, National Bank of Belgium.
    10. Roychowdhury, Sugata & Shroff, Nemit & Verdi, Rodrigo S., 2019. "The effects of financial reporting and disclosure on corporate investment: A review," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2).
    11. Agliardi, Elettra & Andergassen, Rainer, 2009. "Last resort gambles, risky debt and liquidation policy," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 142-155, August.
    12. Luc Renneboog & Peter G. Szilagyi, 2008. "Corporate Restructuring and Bondholder Wealth," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 14(4), pages 792-819, September.
    13. Agarwal, Vikas & Daniel, Naveen D. & Naik, Narayan Y., 2009. "Role of managerial incentives and discretion in hedge fund performance," CFR Working Papers 04-04, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    14. Hussein Abdoh & Yu Liu, 2021. "Executive risk incentives, product market competition, and R&D," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 133-156, February.
    15. Jean-Bernard Chatelain, 2002. "Structural modelling of investment and financial constraints: Where do we stand?," Working Paper Research 28, National Bank of Belgium.
    16. Gérard Charreaux, 2000. "L'approche économico-financière de l'investissement: une vision critique," Working Papers CREGO 1000501, Université de Bourgogne - CREGO EA7317 Centre de recherches en gestion des organisations.
    17. Isil Erol & Dogan Tirtiroglu, 2011. "Concentrated Ownership, No Dividend Payout Requirement and Capital Structure of REITs: Evidence from Turkey," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 174-204, July.
    18. Hui Chen & Jianjun Miao & Neng Wang, 2010. "Entrepreneurial Finance and Nondiversifiable Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(12), pages 4348-4388, December.
    19. Maclachlan, Iain C, 2007. "An empirical study of corporate bond pricing with unobserved capital structure dynamics," MPRA Paper 28416, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Szydlowski, Martin, 2019. "Incentives, project choice, and dynamic multitasking," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(3), July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Firms’ evaluation; fuzzy logic; expert system; rating; acquisition; sensitivity analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
    • C88 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Other Computer Software
    • G34 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Mergers; Acquisitions; Restructuring; Corporate Governance
    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • M21 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Economics - - - Business Economics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:7879. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.