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Investment decisions, equivalent risk and bounded rationality

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  • Magni, Carlo Alberto

Abstract

The Net Present Value maximizing model shows fallacies and inconsistencies that may be easily unmasked by performing a cognitive analysis of the decision-making process implied by the maximization problem. The model may be conveniently rescued if the maximizing version of the criterion is shunt aside and a boundedly rational interpretation is given. The resulting ‘mixed strategy’, currently in use by many real-life decision makers, opens up terrain to a fruitful cooperation between bounded and unbounded rationality. This paper is consistent with a fluid and nondichotomous interpretation of dual-process theories.

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  • Magni, Carlo Alberto, 2007. "Investment decisions, equivalent risk and bounded rationality," MPRA Paper 6073, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:6073
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Magni, C. A. & Mastroleo G. & Facchinetti, G., 2001. "A Fuzzy expert system for solving ReaL-Option decision processes," Fuzzy Economic Review, International Association for Fuzzy-set Management and Economy (SIGEF), vol. 0(2), pages 51-73, November.
    2. Ravi Jagannathan & Iwan Meier, 2002. "Do We Need CAPM for Capital Budgeting?," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 31(4), Winter.
    3. Gigerenzer, Gerd & Todd, Peter M. & ABC Research Group,, 2000. "Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195143812.
    4. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
    5. Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R., 2001. "The theory and practice of corporate finance: evidence from the field," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2-3), pages 187-243, May.
    6. Kent D. Miller & Zur Shapira, 2004. "An empirical test of heuristics and biases affecting real option valuation," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(3), pages 269-284, March.
    7. Ortmann, Andreas & Gigerenzer, Gerd & Borges, Bernhard & Goldstein, Daniel G., 2008. "The Recognition Heuristic: A Fast and Frugal Way to Investment Choice?," Handbook of Experimental Economics Results, in: Charles R. Plott & Vernon L. Smith (ed.), Handbook of Experimental Economics Results, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 107, pages 993-1003, Elsevier.
    8. Herbert A. Simon, 1955. "A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 69(1), pages 99-118.
    9. Carlo Alberto Magni & Stefano Malagoli & Giovanni Mastroleo, 2006. "An Alternative Approach To Firms' Evaluation: Expert Systems And Fuzzy Logic," International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(01), pages 195-225.
    10. John Graham & Campbell Harvey, 2002. "HOW DO CFOs MAKE CAPITAL BUDGETING AND CAPITAL STRUCTURE DECISIONS?," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 15(1), pages 8-23, March.
    11. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    12. Lawrence H. Summers, 1987. "Investment Incentives and the Discounting of Depreciation Allowances," NBER Chapters, in: The Effects of Taxation on Capital Accumulation, pages 295-304, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Carlo Alberto Magni & Giovanni Mastroleo & Marina Vignola & Gisella Facchinetti, 2009. "Strategic options and expert systems: a fruitful marriage," Proyecciones Financieras y Valoración 6122, Master Consultores.
    14. Abel, Andrew B., 1990. "Consumption and investment," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 14, pages 725-778, Elsevier.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Finance; Investment decisions; Net Present Value; heuristics; bounded rationality; cognition;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • B40 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - General
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • A12 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Relation of Economics to Other Disciplines
    • M20 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Economics - - - General
    • G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General

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