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Warning: Inflation May Be Harmful to Your Growth

Author

Listed:
  • Atish Ghosh

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Steven Phillips

    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

While few doubt that very high inflation is bad for growth, there is less agreement about the effects of moderate inflation. Using panel regressions and allowing for a nonlinear specification, this paper finds a statistically and economically significant negative relationship between inflation and growth, which holds robustly at all but the lowest inflation rates. A "decision-tree" technique identifies inflation as one of the most important determinants of growth. Finally, short-run growth costs of disinflation are only relevant for the most severe disinflations, or when the initial inflation rate is well within the single-digit range.

Suggested Citation

  • Atish Ghosh & Steven Phillips, 1998. "Warning: Inflation May Be Harmful to Your Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(4), pages 672-710, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:45:y:1998:i:4:p:672-710
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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