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Does military spending nonlinearly affect economic growth in South Africa?

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  • Phiri, Andrew

Abstract

Using annual data collected from 1988 to 2014, this study provides evidence of a nonlinear relationship between military spending, economic growth and other growth determinants for the South African economy. The empirical study is based on estimates of a logistic smooth transition regression (LSTR) model and our empirical results point to an inverted U-shaped relationship between military spending and economic growth for the data. Furthermore, our empirical results suggest that the current levels of military spending, as a component of total government expenditure, are too high in the South African economy and need to be transferred towards more productive non-military expenditure in order to improve the performance of economic growth and other growth determinants.

Suggested Citation

  • Phiri, Andrew, 2016. "Does military spending nonlinearly affect economic growth in South Africa?," MPRA Paper 69730, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:69730
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    Cited by:

    1. Chella, Namapsa & Phiri, Andrew, 2017. "Long-run cointegration between foreign direct investment, direct investment and unemployment in South Africa," MPRA Paper 82371, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. N. Mhlaba & A. Phiri, 2019. "Is public debt harmful towards economic growth? New evidence from South Africa," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 1603653-160, January.
    3. Hanson Robert & Jeon Joo Young, 2024. "The Military Expenditure – Economic Growth Nexus Revisited: Evidence from the United Kingdom," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 30(2), pages 207-248.
    4. Kyriakos Emmanouilidis & Christos Karpetis, 2022. "Cross–Country Dependence, Heterogeneity and the Growth Effects of Military Spending," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(7), pages 842-856, October.
    5. Charles Shaaba Saba & Nicholas Ngepah, 2022. "Nexus between defence spending, economic growth and development: evidence from a disaggregated panel data analysis," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 109-151, February.
    6. Kyriakos Emmanouilidis, 2024. "Military Spending and Economic Output: A Decomposition Analysis of the US Military Budget," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 243-263, February.
    7. Babalwa Mapapu & Andrew Phiri, 2017. "Carbon emissions and economic growth in South Africa: A quantile regression approach," Working Papers 1713, Department of Economics, Nelson Mandela University, revised Oct 2017.
    8. Charles Shaaba Saba & Nicholas Ngepah, 2022. "Nexus between telecommunication infrastructures, defence and economic growth: a global evidence," Netnomics, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 139-177, October.
    9. Saba, Charles Shaaba, 2023. "Nexus between CO2 emissions, renewable energy consumption, militarisation, and economic growth in South Africa: Evidence from using novel dynamic ARDL simulations," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 349-365.
    10. Kassouri, Yacouba & Altıntaş, Halil, 2020. "Threshold cointegration, nonlinearity, and frequency domain causality relationship between stock price and Turkish Lira," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    11. Saba Charles Shaaba, 2022. "Defence Spending and Economic Growth in South Africa: Evidence from Cointegration and Co-Feature Analysis," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 28(1), pages 51-100, February.
    12. Ourania Dimitraki & Kyriakos Emmanouilidis, 2024. "Analysis of the Economic Effects of Defence Spending in Spain: A Re-Examination Through Dynamic ARDL Simulations and Kernel-Based Regularized Least Squares," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(7), pages 908-930, October.
    13. Roseline Tapuwa Karambakuwa & Ronney Ncwadi & Andrew Phiri, 2020. "The human capital–economic growth nexus in SSA countries: what can strengthen the relationship?," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 47(9), pages 1143-1159, July.
    14. Stamegna, Marco & Bonaiuti, Chiara & Maranzano, Paolo & Pianta, Mario, 2024. "The economic impact of arms spending in Germany, Italy, and Spain," MPRA Paper 120608, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Duygu Yolcu Karadam & Nadir Öcal & Jülide Yildirim, 2023. "Distinct Asymmetric Effects of Military Spending on Economic Growth for Different Income Groups of Countries," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 477-494, May.
    16. Khalid Zaman, 2019. "Does higher military spending affect business regulatory and growth specific measures? Evidence from the group of seven (G-7) countries," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 36(1), pages 323-348, April.
    17. Luqman Saeed, 2025. "The Impact of Military Expenditures on Economic Growth: A New Instrumental Variables Approach," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 86-101, January.
    18. Andrew Phiri, 2020. "Creative industries and economic performance: Should South Africa go to the movies?," Working Papers 2002, Department of Economics, Nelson Mandela University, revised Jan 2020.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Military expenditure; Non-military expenditure; Economic growth; Investment; Labour; Exports; South Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Developing country; Smooth transition regression (STR) model.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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