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Military expenditure and economic growth in Middle Eastern countries and Turkey: a non-linear panel data approach

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  • Duygu Yolcu Karadam
  • Jülide Yildirim
  • Nadir Öcal

Abstract

The economic growth effects of military expenditure have been the subject of a large literature in defence economics. Theories on the economic impacts of military expenditure greatly differ and include arguments that they either enhance economic growth or crowd out productive investments. Empirical literature on defence expenditure and economic growth nexus generally employs linear specifications to investigate the impact of defence expenditures on economic growth. Although it is now well established that many economic variables may have a non-linear data-generating mechanism, it seems that this reality has long been neglected in empirical work on defence–growth nexus. This paper attempts to fill this gap by employing non-linear panel data models to examine the effects of military expenditures on economic growth for Middle Eastern countries and Turkey, for the time period 1988–2012. Results show that the effect of military expenditure on economic growth is nonlinear such that the state of the economy actually determines the effect of the former on the latter. This is important not only in showing asymmetric relationship between these variables but also in revealing the reasons of mixed results of earlier literature.

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  • Duygu Yolcu Karadam & Jülide Yildirim & Nadir Öcal, 2017. "Military expenditure and economic growth in Middle Eastern countries and Turkey: a non-linear panel data approach," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(6), pages 719-730, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:28:y:2017:i:6:p:719-730
    DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2016.1195573
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    1. Michael D. Stroup & Jac C. Heckelman, 2001. "Size of the Military Sector and Economic Growth: A Panel Data Analysis of Africa and Latin America," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 329-360, November.
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    3. Jülide Yildirim & Selami Sezgin, 2002. "A System Estimation of the Defense-Growth Relation in Turkey," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Jurgen Brauer & J. Paul Dunne (ed.), Arming the South, chapter 14, pages 319-335, Palgrave Macmillan.
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    7. Saba, Charles Shaaba, 2023. "Nexus between CO2 emissions, renewable energy consumption, militarisation, and economic growth in South Africa: Evidence from using novel dynamic ARDL simulations," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 349-365.
    8. Liu Geng & Olivier Joseph Abban & Yao Hongxing & Charles Ofori & Joana Cobbinah & Sarah Akosua Ampong & Muhammad Akhtar, 2024. "Do military expenditures impede economic growth in 48 Islamic countries? A panel data analysis with novel approaches," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(7), pages 18725-18759, July.
    9. Shreesh Chary, 2023. "The nexus between arms imports, military expenditures and economic growth of the top arms importers in the world: a pooled mean group approach," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 51(4), pages 808-822, August.
    10. Saba Charles Shaaba, 2022. "Defence Spending and Economic Growth in South Africa: Evidence from Cointegration and Co-Feature Analysis," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 28(1), pages 51-100, February.
    11. Ramazan ErdaÄŸ, 2021. "Security Environment and Military Spending of Turkey in the 2000s," Contemporary Review of the Middle East, , vol. 8(1), pages 120-139, March.
    12. J. Paul Dunne & Christine S. Makanza, 2019. "Nonlinear Effects of Military Spending on Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," School of Economics Macroeconomic Discussion Paper Series 2019-04, School of Economics, University of Cape Town.
    13. Korhan K. Gokmenoglu & Nigar Taspinar & Mohammad Mafizur Rahman, 2021. "Military expenditure, financial development and environmental degradation in Turkey: A comparison of CO2 emissions and ecological footprint," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 986-997, January.
    14. Duygu Yolcu Karadam & Nadir Öcal & Jülide Yildirim, 2023. "Distinct Asymmetric Effects of Military Spending on Economic Growth for Different Income Groups of Countries," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 477-494, May.
    15. Khalid Zaman, 2019. "Does higher military spending affect business regulatory and growth specific measures? Evidence from the group of seven (G-7) countries," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 36(1), pages 323-348, April.
    16. Mohamed Maher & Yanzhi Zhao, 2022. "Do Political Instability and Military Expenditure Undermine Economic Growth in Egypt? Evidence from the ARDL Approach," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(8), pages 956-979, November.
    17. Elveren, Adem Yavuz & Özgür, Gökçer, 2018. "The Effect of Military Expenditures on the Profit Rates in Turkey," MPRA Paper 88848, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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