IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bpj/pepspp/v28y2022i1p51-100n1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Defence Spending and Economic Growth in South Africa: Evidence from Cointegration and Co-Feature Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Saba Charles Shaaba

    (School of Economics, College of Business and Economics, University of Johannesburg, Auckland Park Kingsway Campus, PO Box 524 Auckland Park, Johannesburg, South Africa)

Abstract

The paper revisits the causality relationship between defence spending and economic growth for South Africa during the period 1960–2018. The results of our estimation show that defence spending and economic growth are cointegrated and that there is bidirectional Granger causality running between defence spending and economic growth in the long run. We then applied a Hodrick-Prescott filter to decompose the trend and the fluctuation components of the defence spending and economic growth series. The findings from the autoregressive distributed lag bounds test estimations show that in the long- and short-run, the trends and cyclicality of defence spending retard economic growth. The estimation results show that there is cointegration between the trends and the cyclical components of the two series, which suggests that the Granger causality possibly relates to the business cycle. This study suggests that investing more and reducing inefficiency spending in the defence sector during fluctuations can further stimulate economic growth in South Africa.

Suggested Citation

  • Saba Charles Shaaba, 2022. "Defence Spending and Economic Growth in South Africa: Evidence from Cointegration and Co-Feature Analysis," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 28(1), pages 51-100, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:pepspp:v:28:y:2022:i:1:p:51-100:n:1
    DOI: 10.1515/peps-2021-0017
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2021-0017
    Download Restriction: For access to full text, subscription to the journal or payment for the individual article is required.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1515/peps-2021-0017?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gregory, Allan W & Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime and Trend Shifts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(3), pages 555-560, August.
    2. J Paul Dunne & Fanny Coulomb, 2008. "Peace, War and International Security: Economic Theories," Working Papers 0803, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.
    3. Paul E. Dunne & Fanny Coulomb, 2008. "Peace, war and international security," Post-Print hal-02388862, HAL.
    4. Alvin Birdi & J. Paul Dunne, 2002. "South Africa: An Econometric Analysis of Military Spending and Economic Growth," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Jurgen Brauer & J. Paul Dunne (ed.), Arming the South, chapter 9, pages 221-233, Palgrave Macmillan.
    5. Jurgen Brauer & J. Paul Dunne (ed.), 2002. "Arming the South," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-0-230-50125-6, October.
    6. Fanny Coulomb & John Paul Dunne, 2008. "Economics, conflict and war," Post-Print hal-02051663, HAL.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Charles Shaaba Saba & Nicholas Ngepah, 2022. "Nexus between defence spending, economic growth and development: evidence from a disaggregated panel data analysis," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 109-151, February.
    2. J Paul Dunne, 2011. "Military Keynesianism: An Assessment," Working Papers 1106, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.
    3. John Paul Dunne, 2012. "Military Spending, Growth, Development And Conflict," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(6), pages 549-557, December.
    4. Innocent.U. Duru & Millicent Adanne Eze & Bartholomew.O.N. Okafor & Abubakar Yusuf & Lawrence.O. Ede & Abubakar Sadiq Saleh, 2021. "Military Outlay and Economic Growth: The Scenarios of Lake Chad Basin Countries of the Republic of Chad and Nigeria," Growth, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 8(1), pages 12-26.
    5. Jacques Fontanel, 2020. "Une croissance économique sans progrès humain," Post-Print hal-03709037, HAL.
    6. Giorgio d’Agostino & John Paul Dunne & Luca Pieroni, 2019. "Military Expenditure, Endogeneity and Economic Growth," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(5), pages 509-524, July.
    7. J Paul Dunne, Eftychia Nikolaidou, 2005. "Military Spending and Economic Growth in Greece, Portugal and Spain," Frontiers in Finance and Economics, SKEMA Business School, vol. 2(1), pages 1-17, June.
    8. Charles Shaaba Saba & Nicholas Ngepah, 2019. "Military expenditure and economic growth: evidence from a heterogeneous panel of African countries," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 3586-3606, January.
    9. Kimbambu Tsasa Vangu, Jean - Paul, 2012. "Analyse de la Relation Guerres Civiles et Croissance Économique [Civil Wars and Economic Growth in DRC]," MPRA Paper 42424, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Feb 2012.
    10. Andrew Phiri, 2019. "Does Military Spending Nonlinearly Affect Economic Growth in South Africa?," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 474-487, June.
    11. J. Paul Dunne & Christine S. Makanza, 2019. "Nonlinear Effects of Military Spending on Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," School of Economics Macroeconomic Discussion Paper Series 2019-04, School of Economics, University of Cape Town.
    12. Jacques Fontanel & Manas Chatterji, 2009. "Introduction. The Controversial Economic Question Of Peace And War," Post-Print hal-03173619, HAL.
    13. Giorgio d'Agostino & J Paul Dunne & Luca Pieroni, 2016. "How much does military spending affect growth? Causal estimates from the World's non-rich countries," SALDRU Working Papers 196, Southern Africa Labour and Development Research Unit, University of Cape Town.
    14. Kollias, Christos & Paleologou, Suzanna-Maria, 2013. "Guns, highways and economic growth in the United States," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 449-455.
    15. J. Paul Dunne, 2017. "War, peace, and development," Economics of Peace and Security Journal, EPS Publishing, vol. 12(2), pages 21-31, October.
    16. Charles Shaaba Saba & Nicholas Ngepah, 2019. "A cross-regional analysis of military expenditure, state fragility and economic growth in Africa," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 53(6), pages 2885-2915, November.
    17. Goodness C. Aye & Mehmet Balcilar & John P. Dunne & Rangan Gupta & Rene� van Eyden, 2014. "Military expenditure, economic growth and structural instability: a case study of South Africa," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(6), pages 619-633, December.
    18. Charles Shaaba Saba & Nicholas Ngepah, 2020. "Empirical Analysis of Military Expenditure and Industrialisation Nexus: A Regional Approach for Africa," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1), pages 58-84, January.
    19. Dunne J. Paul & Tian Nan, 2017. "Working Paper 274 - Conflict and Fragile States in Africa," Working Paper Series 2391, African Development Bank.
    20. Dimitrios PAPARAS & Christian RICHTER & Alexandros PAPARAS, 2016. "Military Spending and Economic Growth in Greece and the Arms Race between Greece and Turkey," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 38-56, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    defence spending; economic growth; Granger causality; Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter; South Africa;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:pepspp:v:28:y:2022:i:1:p:51-100:n:1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.degruyter.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.