IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/63519.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Fed Policy Expectations and Portfolio Flows to Emerging Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Koepke, Robin

Abstract

The empirical literature has long established that U.S. interest rates are an important driver of international portfolio flows, with lower rates “pushing” capital to emerging markets. On the basis of this literature, it is often argued that the Federal Reserve’s imminent policy tightening cycle is likely to weigh on portfolio flows to emerging markets in coming years. The analysis presented in this paper offers a different interpretation of the literature, suggesting that it is the surprise element of monetary policy that affects EM portfolio inflows. A shift in market expectations towards easier future U.S. monetary policy leads to greater foreign portfolio inflows and vice versa. Given current market expectations of sustained increases in the federal funds rate in coming years, EM portfolio flows could be boosted by a slower pace of Fed tightening than currently expected or could be reduced by a faster pace of Fed tightening.

Suggested Citation

  • Koepke, Robin, 2014. "Fed Policy Expectations and Portfolio Flows to Emerging Markets," MPRA Paper 63519, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Apr 2015.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:63519
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/63519/1/MPRA_paper_63519.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/63895/8/MPRA_paper_63895.pdf
    File Function: revised version
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/65877/1/MPRA_paper_65877.pdf
    File Function: revised version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2005. "What Explains the Stock Market's Reaction to Federal Reserve Policy?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1221-1257, June.
    2. James D. Hamilton, 2008. "Daily Monetary Policy Shocks and the Delayed Response of New Home Sales," NBER Working Papers 14223, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
    4. Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June.
    5. Gurkaynak, Refet S. & Sack, Brian T. & Swanson, Eric P., 2007. "Market-Based Measures of Monetary Policy Expectations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 201-212, April.
    6. Dasgupta, Dipak & Ratha, Dilip, 2000. "What factors appear to drive private capital flows to developing countries? and how does official lending respond?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2392, The World Bank.
    7. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2012. "Capital flows, push versus pull factors and the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 341-356.
    8. Serge Jeanneau & Marian Micu, 2002. "Determinants of international bank lending to emerging market countries," BIS Working Papers 112, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Bruno, Valentina & Shin, Hyun Song, 2015. "Capital flows and the risk-taking channel of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 119-132.
    10. Montiel, Peter & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1999. "Do capital controls and macroeconomic policies influence the volume and composition of capital flows? Evidence from the 1990s," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 619-635, August.
    11. Joel T. Krueger & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1996. "The Fed funds futures rate as a predictor of federal reserve policy," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(8), pages 865-879, December.
    12. Glauco De Vita & Khine S. Kyaw, 2008. "Determinants of capital flows to developing countries: a structural VAR analysis," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 35(4), pages 304-322, September.
    13. Koepke, Robin, 2015. "What Drives Capital Flows to Emerging Markets? A Survey of the Empirical Literature," MPRA Paper 62770, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Forbes, Kristin J. & Warnock, Francis E., 2012. "Capital flow waves: Surges, stops, flight, and retrenchment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 235-251.
    15. Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Cédric Tille, 2011. "The great retrenchment: international capital flows during the global financial crisis [‘The great trade collapse: what caused it and what does it mean?’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 26(66), pages 289-346.
    16. Don H. Kim & Jonathan H. Wright, 2005. "An arbitrage-free three-factor term structure model and the recent behavior of long-term yields and distant-horizon forward rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-33, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    17. Unknown, 2005. "Forward," 2005 Conference: Slovenia in the EU - Challenges for Agriculture, Food Science and Rural Affairs, November 10-11, 2005, Moravske Toplice, Slovenia 183804, Slovenian Association of Agricultural Economists (DAES).
    18. Ahmed, Shaghil & Zlate, Andrei, 2014. "Capital flows to emerging market economies: A brave new world?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PB), pages 221-248.
    19. Gabriele Galati & Michael Melvin, 2004. "Why has FX trading surged?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    20. Mr. Rodrigo O. Valdes & Mr. Leonardo Hernández & Ms. Pamela Melado, 2001. "Determinants of Private Capital Flows in the 1970's and 1990's: Is there Evidence of Contagion?," IMF Working Papers 2001/064, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Tatjana Dahlhaus & Garima Vasishtha, 2014. "The Impact of U.S. Monetary Policy Normalization on Capital Flows to Emerging-Market Economies," Staff Working Papers 14-53, Bank of Canada.
    22. Michael Woodford, 2012. "Methods of policy accommodation at the interest-rate lower bound," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 185-288.
    23. Refet S. Gürkaynak, 2005. "Using federal funds futures contracts for monetary policy analysis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-29, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    24. Nasha Ananchotikul & Ms. Longmei Zhang, 2014. "Portfolio Flows, Global Risk Aversion and Asset Prices in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 2014/156, International Monetary Fund.
    25. Hamilton, James D., 2008. "Daily monetary policy shocks and new home sales," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(7), pages 1171-1190, October.
    26. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
    27. Cook, Timothy & Hahn, Thomas, 1989. "The effect of changes in the federal funds rate target on market interest rates in the 1970s," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 331-351, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cerutti, Eugenio & Claessens, Stijn & Puy, Damien, 2019. "Push factors and capital flows to emerging markets: why knowing your lender matters more than fundamentals," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 133-149.
    2. Tatjana Dahlhaus & Garima Vasishtha, 2014. "The Impact of U.S. Monetary Policy Normalization on Capital Flows to Emerging-Market Economies," Staff Working Papers 14-53, Bank of Canada.
    3. Forbes, Kristin & Reinhardt, Dennis & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2017. "The spillovers, interactions, and (un)intended consequences of monetary and regulatory policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 1-22.
    4. Beniak, Patrycja, 2019. "The emerging market reaction to Fed tightening," MPRA Paper 96545, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 29 Oct 2019.
    5. OGAWA, Eiji & SHIMIZU, Junko & LUO, Pengfei, 2023. "Effects of Us Interest Rate Hike and Global Risk on Daily Capital Flows in Emerging Market Countries," Hitotsubashi Journal of commerce and management, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 57(1), pages 1-31, October.
    6. Nicolás Álvarez H. & Antonio Fernandois S. & Carlos Saavedra H., 2019. "Sensibilidad de flujos financieros a Chile durante eventos de estrés financiero global," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 22(2), pages 118-126, August.
    7. Koepke, Robin, 2015. "What Drives Capital Flows to Emerging Markets? A Survey of the Empirical Literature," MPRA Paper 62770, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Feyen,Erik H.B. & Ghosh,Swati R. & Kibuuka,Katie & Farazi,Subika, 2015. "Global liquidity and external bond issuance in emerging markets and developing economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7363, The World Bank.
    9. Olivier Blanchard, 2021. "Currency Wars, Coordination, and Capital Controls," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Steven J Davis & Edward S Robinson & Bernard Yeung (ed.), THE ASIAN MONETARY POLICY FORUM Insights for Central Banking, chapter 4, pages 134-157, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    10. Boermans, Martijn A. & Burger, John D., 2023. "Fickle emerging market flows, stable euros, and the dollar risk factor," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    11. Jieun Lee & Jung-Min Kim & Jong Kook Shin, 2016. "US Interest Rate Policy Spillover and International Capital Flow: Evidence from Korea," Working Papers 2016-21, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    12. Andreas Hoffmann & Björn Urbansky, 2015. "Policy Shifts and Financial Instability in Emerging Markets," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 455-469, August.
    13. Teik-Khim Ooi & Wee-Yeap Lau, 2021. "Impact of Market Expectations on the U.S. Interest Rate Lift-Off in ASEAN-5 Financial System," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 28(2), pages 243-271, June.
    14. Masahiro Enya & Akira Kohsaka & Kimiko Sugimoto, 2019. "Capital Flow Dynamics in Emerging Market Economies," OSIPP Discussion Paper 19E011, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University.
    15. Choy, Marylin & Cerna, Jorge, 2014. "Comportamiento de los mercados financieros peruanos ante el anuncio del tapering," Working Papers 2014-011, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Koepke, Robin, 2018. "Fed policy expectations and portfolio flows to emerging markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 170-194.
    2. Koepke, Robin, 2015. "What Drives Capital Flows to Emerging Markets? A Survey of the Empirical Literature," MPRA Paper 62770, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Anusha Chari & Karlye Dilts Stedman & Christian Lundblad, 2017. "Taper Tantrums: QE, its Aftermath and Emerging Market Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 23474, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Carlos Alba & Gabriel Cuadra & Juan R. Hernandez & Raul Ibarra, 2024. "Capital flows to emerging economies and global risk aversion during the COVID‐19 pandemic," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 2804-2836, July.
    5. Hardik A. Marfatia, 2016. "The Role of Push and Pull Factors in Driving Global Capital Flows," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot GmbH, Berlin, vol. 62(2), pages 117-146.
    6. Chen, Zhengyang, 2019. "The Long-term Rate and Interest Rate Volatility in Monetary Policy Transmission," MPRA Paper 96339, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Noha Emara & Ayah El Said, 2021. "Sovereign ratings, foreign direct investment and contagion in emerging markets: Does being a BRICS country matter?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5217-5234, October.
    8. Dahlhaus, Tatjana & Vasishtha, Garima, 2021. "Reprint: Monetary policy news in the US: Effects on emerging market capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    9. Dahlhaus, Tatjana & Vasishtha, Garima, 2020. "Monetary policy news in the US: Effects on emerging market capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    10. Bruno, Valentina & Shim, Ilhyock & Shin, Hyun Song, 2017. "Comparative assessment of macroprudential policies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 183-202.
    11. Milena Lipovina-Božoviæ & Maja Ivanoviæ, 2018. "Capital flows in Montenegro: SVAR model," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 36(2), pages 647-675.
    12. Duran, Hasan Engin & Ferreira-Lopes, Alexandra, 2022. "The Revival Of The Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle And Moderation Of Capital Flows After The Global Financial Crisis (2008/09)," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    13. Raul Ibarra & Isela-Elizabeth Tellez-Leon, 2020. "Are all types of capital flows driven by the same factors? Evidence from Mexico," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 461-502, July.
    14. Mr. Jiaqian Chen & Mr. Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli & Ms. Ratna Sahay, 2014. "Spillovers from United States Monetary Policy on Emerging Markets: Different This Time?," IMF Working Papers 2014/240, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Emara, Noha & El Said, Aya, 2019. "Sovereign Ratings, Foreign Direct Investment, and Financial Contagion: The Case of Emerging Markets," MPRA Paper 94504, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Naqvi, Natalya, 2018. "Manias, panics and crashes in emerging markets: an empirical investigation of the post-2008 crisis period," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 90368, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    17. Eugenio Cerutti & Stijn Claessens & Andrew K. Rose, 2019. "How Important is the Global Financial Cycle? Evidence from Capital Flows," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(1), pages 24-60, March.
    18. Fatum, Rasmus & Scholnick, Barry, 2008. "Monetary policy news and exchange rate responses: Do only surprises matter?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1076-1086, June.
    19. repec:ris:msuecw:2020_008 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Tomislav Globan, 2015. "Financial integration, push factors and volatility of capital flows: evidence from EU new member states," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 643-672, August.
    21. Christian Friedrich & Pierre Guérin, 2020. "The Dynamics of Capital Flow Episodes," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(5), pages 969-1003, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capital Flows; Portfolio Flows; Emerging Markets; Monetary Policy; Market Expectations; Fed Funds Futures; Push and Pull;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:63519. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.