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The Timing and Probability of Switching to Second-line Regimen - An application to Second-Line Antiretroviral Therapy in India

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  • Felipa, de Mello-Sampayo

Abstract

Health fluctuations render the outcome of any treatment switch uncertain, so that decision makers might have to wait for more information before optimally switching treatments. This paper sets up a stochastic model that provides an optimal rule for the timing of treatment switch. The results of the model were then tested empirically with patient-based data on first-line and second-line antiretroviral treatment in India. The empirical results support the findings of the analytical model.

Suggested Citation

  • Felipa, de Mello-Sampayo, 2014. "The Timing and Probability of Switching to Second-line Regimen - An application to Second-Line Antiretroviral Therapy in India," MPRA Paper 60997, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:60997
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    7. Meyer, Elisabeth & Rees, Ray, 2012. "Watchfully waiting: Medical intervention as an optimal investment decision," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 349-358.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Uncertainty; Utility Function; Health; Antiretroviral Treatment; Treatment Switch;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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