IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/jglont/v8y2018i1d10.1186_s40497-018-0091-9.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A real options model for loan portfolios of actively traded Philippine universal banks

Author

Listed:
  • Jackson J. Tan

    (University of Santo Tomas
    Entrepreneurship Department, College of Commerce and Business Administration)

  • Fernando L. Trinidad

    (University of Santo Tomas)

Abstract

This study applies Real Options Theory to banking in the environment of actively traded Philippine Universal Banks. These banks exist in an environment of imperfect information with regard to lending, and a country where credit scarcity impedes the growth and performance of entrepreneurial activity. We investigate the option premiums of loan portfolios that depict managerial flexibility with investment strategy. A Real Options Model that considers both the strategies to lend and to idle shows that smaller lending institutions will value loans higher than their larger competitors. From the model, the need to maintain smaller variances in loan portfolio returns constrains manager flexibility. Option premiums in the Philippines exhibit sensitivity to information asymmetries. In these findings, this discussion forwards three propositions and their implications. Furthermore, this paper discusses the value of a hedging portfolio to counter risks from information asymmetry. Hence, this paper differs from many models in the existing literature that focus just on the value of the call option, the value of expansion or growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Jackson J. Tan & Fernando L. Trinidad, 2018. "A real options model for loan portfolios of actively traded Philippine universal banks," Journal of Global Entrepreneurship Research, Springer;UNESCO Chair in Entrepreneurship, vol. 8(1), pages 1-24, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:jglont:v:8:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1186_s40497-018-0091-9
    DOI: 10.1186/s40497-018-0091-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1186/s40497-018-0091-9
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1186/s40497-018-0091-9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shih‐Chuan Tsai, 2008. "Information Asymmetry and Corporate Investment Decisions: A Dynamic Approach," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 43(2), pages 241-271, May.
    2. Steven R. Grenadier & Andrey Malenko, 2010. "A Bayesian Approach to Real Options: The Case of Distinguishing between Temporary and Permanent Shocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(5), pages 1949-1986, October.
    3. Thompson, Matt & Barr, Drew, 2014. "Cut-off grade: A real options analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 83-92.
    4. Frayer, Julia & Uludere, Nazli Z., 2001. "What Is It Worth? Application of Real Options Theory to the Valuation of Generation Assets," The Electricity Journal, Elsevier, vol. 14(8), pages 40-51, October.
    5. Graham, David R & Humphrey, David Burras, 1978. "Bank Examination Data as Predictors of Bank Net Loan Losses," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 10(4), pages 491-504, November.
    6. Michael C. Jensen, 2010. "The Modern Industrial Revolution, Exit, and the Failure of Internal Control Systems," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 22(1), pages 43-58, January.
    7. Pascal Quiry & P. Vernimmen & Y. Le Fur & M. Dallocchio & A. Salvi, 2009. "Corporate Finance: Theory and Practice," Post-Print hal-00494902, HAL.
    8. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1972. "The Valuation of Option Contracts and a Test of Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 27(2), pages 399-417, May.
    9. Anthony Yanxiang Gu, 2002. "Valuing the Option to Purchase an Asset at a Proportional Discount," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 25(1), pages 99-109, March.
    10. Federico S. Mandelman, 2011. "Business Cycles and the Role of Imperfect Competition in the Banking System," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(1), pages 103-133, April.
    11. Nordal, Kjell Bjørn, 2009. "A real options approach for evaluating the implementation of a risk-sensitive capital rule in banks," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 132-141, August.
    12. Pindyck, Robert S, 1988. "Irreversible Investment, Capacity Choice, and the Value of the Firm," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(5), pages 969-985, December.
    13. Avinash Dixit, 1989. "Hysteresis, Import Penetration, and Exchange Rate Pass-Through," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 104(2), pages 205-228.
    14. Daniel W. Elfenbein & Anne Marie Knott, 2015. "Time to exit: Rational, behavioral, and organizational delays," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(7), pages 957-975, July.
    15. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    16. Robert McDonald & Daniel Siegel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(4), pages 707-727.
    17. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    18. Phillip R. Daves & Michael C. Ehrhardt, 2007. "Convertible Securities, Employee Stock Options and the Cost of Equity," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 267-288, May.
    19. Dixit, Avinash K, 1989. "Entry and Exit Decisions under Uncertainty," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 620-638, June.
    20. Avinash Dixit, 1992. "Investment and Hysteresis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(1), pages 107-132, Winter.
    21. Michael J. Barclay & Clifford W. Smith, 1999. "The Capital Structure Puzzle: Another Look At The Evidence," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 12(1), pages 8-20, March.
    22. Agustin Villar, 2006. "Is financial stability policy now better placed to prevent systemic banking crises?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The banking system in emerging economies: how much progress has been made?, volume 28, pages 99-122, Bank for International Settlements.
    23. Rolf Fare & Shawna Grosskopf & William Weber, 2004. "The effect of risk-based capital requirements on profit efficiency in banking," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(15), pages 1731-1743.
    24. Bank for International Settlements, 2006. "The banking system in emerging economies: how much progress has been made?," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 28.
    25. Trigeorgis, Lenos, 1991. "A Log-Transformed Binomial Numerical Analysis Method for Valuing Complex Multi-Option Investments," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(3), pages 309-326, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Antonio J. Dayag & Fernando Trinidad, 2019. "What Drives Stock Market Performance of Banks / Universal Banks? A Critical Examination of Literature," International Journal of Finance & Banking Studies, Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 8(3), pages 51-57, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    2. Lander, Diane M. & Pinches, George E., 1998. "Challenges to the Practical Implementation of Modeling and Valuing Real Options," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(3, Part 2), pages 537-567.
    3. Suresh M. Sundaresan, 2000. "Continuous‐Time Methods in Finance: A Review and an Assessment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1569-1622, August.
    4. Martins, José & Marques, Rui Cunha & Cruz, Carlos Oliveira, 2014. "Maximizing the value for money of PPP arrangements through flexibility: An application to airports," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 72-80.
    5. Kogan, Leonid, 2001. "An equilibrium model of irreversible investment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 201-245, November.
    6. Tsekrekos, Andrianos E., 2010. "The effect of mean reversion on entry and exit decisions under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 725-742, April.
    7. Kovenock, Dan & Phillips, Gordon M, 1997. "Capital Structure and Product Market Behavior: An Examination of Plant Exit and Investment Decisions," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(3), pages 767-803.
    8. Bolton, Patrick & Wang, Neng & Yang, Jinqiang, 2019. "Investment under uncertainty with financial constraints," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    9. Gabriel P. Mathy, 2020. "How much did uncertainty shocks matter in the Great Depression?," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 14(2), pages 283-323, May.
    10. Bar-Ilan, Avner & Strange, William C., 1999. "The Timing and Intensity of Investment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 57-77, January.
    11. Hanno Dihle, 2015. "Real Options in a Ramsey style Growth Model," Discussion Paper Series 32, Department of International Economic Policy, University of Freiburg, revised Dec 2015.
    12. Bulan, Laarni & Mayer, Christopher & Somerville, C. Tsuriel, 2009. "Irreversible investment, real options, and competition: Evidence from real estate development," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 237-251, May.
    13. Farzin, Y. H. & Huisman, K. J. M. & Kort, P. M., 1998. "Optimal timing of technology adoption," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 779-799, May.
    14. Masci, Martín Ezequiel, 2012. "Irreversibilidad e incertidumbre de las decisiones financieras en i&d [Irreversibility and uncertainty of the financial investments on r&d]," MPRA Paper 40970, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Omar, Ayman M.A. & Lambe, Brendan J & Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr, 2021. "Perceptions of the threat to national security and the stock market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 186(C), pages 504-522.
    16. Caballero, Ricardo J & Pindyck, Robert S, 1996. "Uncertainty, Investment, and Industry Evolution," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 37(3), pages 641-662, August.
    17. Pindyck, Robert S, 1991. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 1110-1148, September.
    18. Caren Sureth, 2002. "Partially Irreversible Investment Decisions and Taxation under Uncertainty: A Real Option Approach," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 3(2), pages 185-221, May.
    19. Andrew B. Abel & Avinash K. Dixit & Janice B. Eberly & Robert S. Pindyck, "undated". "Options, the Value of Capital, and Investment," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 15-95, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    20. Akamatsu, Takashi & Nagae, Takeshi, 2011. "A network of options: Evaluating complex interdependent decisions under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 714-729, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:jglont:v:8:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1186_s40497-018-0091-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.