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The timing and the probability of FDI: an application to the US multinational enterprises

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  • de Brito, José Brandão

    (Banco de Portugal)

  • de Mello Sampayo, Felipa

    (Instituto Superior D. Afonso III - INUAF)

Abstract

An 'option-pricing' model is employed to analyse when a firm should expand its production capabilities abroad. In a framework where the firm's profits are determined by some average of the attractiveness of the home and foreign countries, and attractiveness in each country follows differentiated Brownian motions, this paper derives an optimal trigger value for FDI. The model shows that, contrary to the NPV rule, FDI entry should be optimally delayed the greater the uncertainty surrounding the future path of attractiveness in both locations. The second part of the paper is devoted to empirically test the results of the model. Drawing on data of FDI from the US into a panel of developed and developing countries and using labour costs as a proxy for (the reciprocal of) attractiveness, our estimation overwhelmingly confirms the results of the model, namely that FDI entry events are negatively related to the uncertainty surrounding attractiveness.

Suggested Citation

  • de Brito, José Brandão & de Mello Sampayo, Felipa, 2002. "The timing and the probability of FDI: an application to the US multinational enterprises," 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 A3-4, International Conferences on Panel Data.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpd:pd2002:a3-4
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    Cited by:

    1. Chenaf-Nicet, Dalila & Rougier, Eric, 2016. "The effect of macroeconomic instability on FDI flows: A gravity estimation of the impact of regional integration in the case of Euro-Mediterranean agreements," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 66-91.
    2. de Mello-Sampayo, Felipa & de Sousa-Vale, Sofia & Camões, Francisco, 2010. "Delaying the timing of offshoring low-skilled tasks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 951-958, September.
    3. Dreher, Axel & Nunnenkamp, Peter & Vadlamannati, Krishna Chaitanya, 2013. "The Role of Country-of-Origin Characteristics for Foreign Direct Investment and Technical Cooperation in Post-Reform India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 88-109.
    4. Henning Mühlen & Peter Nunnenkamp, 2011. "FDI by early movers, followers and latecomers: timing of entry by German firms during transition in the Czech Republic," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(18), pages 1729-1734, December.
    5. Luís Francisco Aguiar-Conraria & Gulamhussen, Mohamed Azzim, 2006. "Foreign Direct Investment in Brazil and Home Country Risk," NIPE Working Papers 7/2006, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foreign Direct Investment; Multinational Enterprises; Option-Pricing Model; Ordered Probit Model for Panel Data.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business

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