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Public spending and Wagner’s law in Central and Eastern European Countries

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  • Szarowska, Irena

Abstract

This paper provides direct empirical evidence on cyclicality and the long-term and short-term relationship between government spending and output in eight Central and Eastern European countries in a period 1995–2009. We analyzed annual data on government spending in compliance with the COFOG international standard. Although the theory implies that government spending is countercyclical, our research does not prove that. The results confirm cyclical development of government spending on GDP, Wagner´s law and voracity effect in the CEE countries during 1995–2009. We used Johansen cointegration test and the error correction model. Output and government spending are cointegrated for at least 4 from 10 spending functions in every country and it implies a long-term relationship between government spending and output. The government spending functions are procyclical in most CEE countries (93% cases in the sample). Average value of long-run elasticity coefficient is 1.74 for all spending functions, 1.02 for total government spending. We also analyzed the short-run relationship between spending and output. The coefficient values (average is 2.89) confirm the voracity hypothesis, as they suggest that in response to a given shock to real GDP, government spending rises by even more in percentage points.

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  • Szarowska, Irena, 2012. "Public spending and Wagner’s law in Central and Eastern European Countries," MPRA Paper 59779, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:59779
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    13. Akitoby, Bernardin & Clements, Benedict & Gupta, Sanjeev & Inchauste, Gabriela, 2006. "Public spending, voracity, and Wagner's law in developing countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 908-924, December.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Paparas, Dimitrios & Stoian, Andreea, 2016. "The validity of Wagner’s Law in Romania during 1995-2015," MPRA Paper 74378, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Teresa Famulska & Jan Kaczmarzyk & Malgorzata Grzaba, 2020. "The Relationship Between Tax Revenue and Public Social Expenditure in the EU Member States," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4), pages 1136-1156.
    4. Teresa Famulska & Jan Kaczmarzyk & Malgorzata Grzaba, 2021. "The Relationship between the Structure of Tax Revenues and the Structure of Public Expenditure in the Member States of the European Union," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3B), pages 165-185.
    5. Kabbashi M. Suliman, 2016. "The Political Economy of Fiscal Institutions and Macroeconomic Management in Sudan," Working Papers 1044, Economic Research Forum, revised 09 Jan 2016.
    6. Szarowska Irena, 2013. "Relationship between government expenditure and output in the problematic regions in the European Union," Экономика региона, CyberLeninka;Федеральное государственное бюджетное учреждение науки «Институт экономики Уральского отделения Российской академии наук», issue 4 (36), pages 190-199.
    7. Isiaq O. Oseni & Ibrahim A. Adekunle, 2020. "Relevance of Wagner’s Hypothesis in Achieving Sustainable Development Agenda in Nigeria," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 20/006, African Governance and Development Institute..
    8. Ibrahim Sahabi Muhammad & Muhammad Sabir Ibrahim, 2023. "Examining the Relationship between Government Spending and Economic Growth in Nigeria: An Application of Wagner’s Law Hypothesis," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 7(11), pages 125-133, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Government spending; cyclicality; voracity effect; long-run elasticity; short-run elasticity; cointegration; error correction term;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H5 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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