Testing the hockey-stick hypothesis by statistical analyses of a large dataset of proxy records
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Stephen McIntyre & Ross McKitrick, 2005. "The M&M Critique of the MBH98 Northern Hemisphere Climate Index: Update and Implications," Energy & Environment, , vol. 16(1), pages 69-100, January.
- Cooley, Thomas F, 1997. "Calibrated Models," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 13(3), pages 55-69, Autumn.
- Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2010.
"Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics,"
Foundations and Trends(R) in Econometrics, now publishers, vol. 3(4), pages 267-358, July.
- Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2009. "Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics," MPRA Paper 20125, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2009. "Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics," Working Paper series 47_09, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
- Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996.
"Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
- Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," NBER Technical Working Papers 0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "GLSDETREND: RATS procedure to perform local to unity GLS detrending," Statistical Software Components RTS00077, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "ERSTEST: RATS procedure to perform Elliott-Rothenberg-Stock unit root tests," Statistical Software Components RTS00066, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Michael E. Mann & Raymond S. Bradley & Malcolm K. Hughes, 1998. "Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries," Nature, Nature, vol. 392(6678), pages 779-787, April.
- Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino & Igor Masten, 2005.
"Leading Indicators for Euro‐area Inflation and GDP Growth,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(s1), pages 785-813, December.
- Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino & Igor Masten, 2003. "Leading Indicators for Euro-area Inflation and GDP Growth," Working Papers 235, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Banerjee, Anindya & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Masten, Igor, 2003. "Leading Indicators for Euro Area Inflation and GDP Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 3893, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989.
"New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators,"
NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 351-409,
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 1989. "New Indexes Of Coincident And Leading Economic Indicators," Papers 178d, Harvard - J.F. Kennedy School of Government.
- Perron, Pierre & Zhu, Xiaokang, 2005. "Structural breaks with deterministic and stochastic trends," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1-2), pages 65-119.
- Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
- Kim, Dukpa & Perron, Pierre, 2009.
"Unit root tests allowing for a break in the trend function at an unknown time under both the null and alternative hypotheses,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 148(1), pages 1-13, January.
- Mohitosh Kejriwal & Pierre Perron, 2006. "Unit Root Tests Allowing for a Break in the Trend Function at an Unknown Time Under Both the Null and Alternative Hypotheses," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2006-052, Boston University - Department of Economics.
- Bruno Sansó & Chris Forest, 2009. "Statistical calibration of climate system properties," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 58(4), pages 485-503, September.
- Anders Moberg & Dmitry M. Sonechkin & Karin Holmgren & Nina M. Datsenko & Wibjörn Karlén, 2005. "Highly variable Northern Hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low- and high-resolution proxy data," Nature, Nature, vol. 433(7026), pages 613-617, February.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Travaglini, Guido, 2011. "Climate change: where is the hockey stick? evidence from millennial-scale reconstructed and updated temperature time series," MPRA Paper 35565, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Vicente Esteve & Manuel Navarro-Ibáñez & María A. Prats, 2013.
"The present value model of US stock prices revisited: long-run evidence with structural breaks, 1871-2010,"
Working Papers
04/13, Instituto Universitario de Análisis Económico y Social.
- Esteve García, Vicente & Navarro Ibáñez, Manuel & Prats Albentosa, María Asuncíon, 2017. "The present value model of U.S. stock prices revisited: Long-run evidence with structural breaks, 1871-2012," Economics Discussion Papers 2017-93, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
- Mohitosh Kejriwal & Claude Lopez, 2013.
"Unit Roots, Level Shifts, and Trend Breaks in Per Capita Output: A Robust Evaluation,"
Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(8), pages 892-927, November.
- Mohitosh Kejriwal & Claude Lopez, 2009. "Unit Roots, Level Shifts and Trend Breaks in Per Capita Output: A Robust Evaluation," Purdue University Economics Working Papers 1227, Purdue University, Department of Economics.
- Kejriwal , M. & Lopez, C., 2011. "Unit Roots, Level Shifts and Trend Breaks in Per Capita Output: A Robust Evaluation," Working papers 334, Banque de France.
- Mohitosh Kejriwal & Claude Lopez, 2010. "Unit Roots, Level Shifts and Trend Breaks in PerCapita Output: A Robust Evaluation," University of Cincinnati, Economics Working Papers Series 2010-02, University of Cincinnati, Department of Economics.
- Kejriwal, Mohitosh & Lopez, Claude, 2010. "Unit Roots, Level Shifts and Trend Breaks in Per Capita Output: A Robust Evaluation," MPRA Paper 25204, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Hoang, Nam & Grieb, Terrance, 2018. "Hedging Positions, Basis, and Futures Risk Premium: A Disaggregated Data Analysis on US Wheat Markets," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 273799, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
- Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2012.
"Unit root testing under a local break in trend,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 167(1), pages 140-167.
- David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2010. "Unit root testing under a local break in trend," Discussion Papers 10/05, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
- David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2011. "Unit root testing under a local break in trend," Discussion Papers 11/02, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
- Terrance Grieb & Nam Hoang, 2019. "The Effects of Hedging and Speculation on Cash-Futures Basis: Results from U.S. Wheat Markets," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 17, pages 1-15, August.
- Gupta, Rangan & Kabundi, Alain, 2011.
"A large factor model for forecasting macroeconomic variables in South Africa,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1076-1088, October.
- Alain Kabundi & Rangan Gupta, 2009. "A Large Factor Model for Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables in South Africa," Working Papers 137, Economic Research Southern Africa.
- Cavaliere, Giuseppe & Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2011.
"Testing For Unit Roots In The Presence Of A Possible Break In Trend And Nonstationary Volatility,"
Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(5), pages 957-991, October.
- Giuseppe Cavaliere & David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A.M. Robert Taylor, 2008. "Testing for Unit Roots in the Presence of a Possible Break in Trend and Non-Stationary Volatility," CREATES Research Papers 2008-62, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- Giuseppe Cavaliere & David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2009. "Testing for unit roots in the presence of a possible break in trend and non-stationary volatility," Discussion Papers 09/05, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
- Terence Mills, 2013. "Breaks and unit roots in global and hemispheric temperatures: an updated analysis," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(3), pages 745-755, June.
- Sobreira, Nuno & Nunesz, Luis C. & Rodriguesz, Paulo M. M., 2012. "Neoclassical, semi-endogenous or endogenous growth theory? Evidence based on new structural change tests," Insper Working Papers wpe_291, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
- Nuno Sobreira & Luis C. Nunes & Paulo M. M. Rodrigues, 2014.
"Characterizing Economic Growth Paths Based On New Structural Change Tests,"
Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 52(2), pages 845-861, April.
- Paulo M.M. Rodrigues & Nuno Sobreira, 2013. "Characterizing economic growth paths based on new structural change tests," Working Papers w201313, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Pierre Perron & Eduardo Zorita & Francisco Estrada & Pierre Perron, 2017.
"Extracting and Analyzing the Warming Trend in Global and Hemispheric Temperatures,"
Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(5), pages 711-732, September.
- Francisco Estrada & Pierre Perron, 2016. "Extracting and analyzing the warming trend in global and hemispheric temperatures," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2017-008, Boston University - Department of Economics, revised Mar 2017.
- Niels Haldrup & Robinson Kruse & Timo Teräsvirta & Rasmus T. Varneskov, 2013.
"Unit roots, non-linearities and structural breaks,"
Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 4, pages 61-94,
Edward Elgar Publishing.
- Niels Haldrup & Robinson Kruse & Timo Teräsvirta & Rasmus T. Varneskov, 2012. "Unit roots, nonlinearities and structural breaks," CREATES Research Papers 2012-14, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- Harris, David & Kew, Hsein & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2020.
"Level shift estimation in the presence of non-stationary volatility with an application to the unit root testing problem,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 219(2), pages 354-388.
- David Harris & Hsein Kew & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2020. "Level Shift Estimation in the Presence of Non-stationary Volatility with an Application to the Unit Root Testing Problem," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 8/20, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Ghoshray, Atanu & Kejriwal, Mohitosh & Wohar, Mark E., 2011. "Breaking Trends and the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis: A Further Investigation," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 120387, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
- Luis Emilio Morales & Nam Hoang & Eric Stuen, 2017.
"Spatial price premium transmission for Meat Standards Australia-graded cattle: the vulnerability of price premiums to outside shocks,"
Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 61(4), pages 590-609, October.
- Morales, Luis Emilio & Hoang, Nam & Stuen, Eric, 2017. "Spatial price premium transmission for Meat Standards Australia-graded cattle: the vulnerability of price premiums to outside shocks," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 61(4), October.
- Harris, David & Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2009.
"Testing For A Unit Root In The Presence Of A Possible Break In Trend,"
Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(6), pages 1545-1588, December.
- David Harris & David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2007. "Testing for a unit root in the presence of a possible break in trend," Discussion Papers 07/04, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
- Skrobotov, Anton, 2020. "Survey on structural breaks and unit root tests," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 58, pages 96-141.
- Travaglini, Guido, 2010. "Dynamic Econometric Testing of Climate Change and of its Causes," MPRA Paper 23600, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- R. Santos Alimi, 2014. "ARDL Bounds Testing Approach to Cointegration: A Re-Examination of Augmented Fisher Hypothesis in an Open Economy," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 2(2), pages 103-114, June.
More about this item
Keywords
Bayesian Calibration; climate change; Gibbs sampling; hockey-stick hypothesis.;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
- C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
- C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
- C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:55835. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.