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Régime de change, taux de change réel, flux commerciaux et investissements directs étrangers: le cas du Maroc
[Real exchange rate, trade flows and foreign direct investments: the Moroccan case]

Author

Listed:
  • Bouoiyour, Jamal
  • Rey, Serge

Abstract

We study the behavior of the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) of the dirham against the European currencies (the EU15), over the period 1960–2000. We measure the volatility using standard deviation, and the misalignments as the difference between the actual REER and the equilibrium REER (NATREX model). We show that a rise in the volatility of the dirham reduces the trade flows, i.e. the exports and the imports. The misalignments also affect the trade flows: an overvaluation leads to a reduction in Morocco exports, to an increase in Morocco imports, and globally to a deterioration of the trade balance with the European Union. On the other hand, neither the volatility nor the misalignments have an effect on foreign direct investment in favor of Morocco

Suggested Citation

  • Bouoiyour, Jamal & Rey, Serge, 2005. "Régime de change, taux de change réel, flux commerciaux et investissements directs étrangers: le cas du Maroc [Real exchange rate, trade flows and foreign direct investments: the Moroccan case]," MPRA Paper 49503, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:49503
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real exchange rate; PPP; EMS; unit root; long memory; mean-reverting; structural breaks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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