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Un modelo GARCH con asimetria condicional autorregresiva para modelar series de tiempo: Una aplicacion para los rendimientos del Indice de Precios y Cotizaciones de la BMV
[A GARCH model with autorregresive conditional asymmetry to model time-series: An application to the returns of the Mexican stock market index]

Author

Listed:
  • Duran-Vazquez, Rocio
  • Lorenzo-Valdes, Arturo
  • Ruiz-Porras, Antonio

Abstract

We develop a GARCH model with autoregressive conditional asymmetry to describe time-series. This means that, in addition to the conditional mean and variance, we assume that the skewness describes the behavior of the time-series. Analytically, we use the methodology proposed by Fernández and Steel (1998) to define the behavior of the innovations of the model. We use the approach developed by Brooks, et. al., (2005), to build it. Moreover, we show its usefulness by modeling the daily returns of the Mexican Stock Market Index (IPC) during the period between January 3rd, 2008 and September 29th, 2009.

Suggested Citation

  • Duran-Vazquez, Rocio & Lorenzo-Valdes, Arturo & Ruiz-Porras, Antonio, 2013. "Un modelo GARCH con asimetria condicional autorregresiva para modelar series de tiempo: Una aplicacion para los rendimientos del Indice de Precios y Cotizaciones de la BMV [A GARCH model with autor," MPRA Paper 46328, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:46328
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Harvey, Campbell R. & Siddique, Akhtar, 1999. "Autoregressive Conditional Skewness," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(4), pages 465-487, December.
    2. Jondeau, Eric & Rockinger, Michael, 2003. "Conditional volatility, skewness, and kurtosis: existence, persistence, and comovements," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(10), pages 1699-1737, August.
    3. Lorenzo-Valdes, Arturo & Ruiz-Porras, Antonio, 2011. "Modelación de los rendimientos bursátiles mexicanos mediante los modelos TGARCH y EGARCH: Un estudio econométrico para 30 acciones y el Índice de Precios y Cotizaciones [Modeling Mexican stock retu," MPRA Paper 36872, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Chris Brooks, 2005. "Autoregressive Conditional Kurtosis," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 3(3), pages 399-421.
    5. J. Tobin, 1958. "Liquidity Preference as Behavior Towards Risk," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 25(2), pages 65-86.
    6. Duran-Vazquez, Rocio & Lorenzo-Valdes, Arturo & Ruiz-Porras, Antonio, 2011. "Valuation of Latin-American stock prices with alternative versions of the Ohlson model: An investigation of cointegration relationships with time-series and panel-data," MPRA Paper 32043, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Ser-Huang Poon & Clive W.J. Granger, 2003. "Forecasting Volatility in Financial Markets: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 478-539, June.
    8. Hansen, Bruce E, 1994. "Autoregressive Conditional Density Estimation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 35(3), pages 705-730, August.
    9. Chen, Joseph & Hong, Harrison & Stein, Jeremy C., 2001. "Forecasting crashes: trading volume, past returns, and conditional skewness in stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(3), pages 345-381, September.
    10. Bollerslev, Tim & Russell, Jeffrey & Watson, Mark (ed.), 2010. "Volatility and Time Series Econometrics: Essays in Honor of Robert Engle," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199549498.
    11. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    12. Campbell R. Harvey & Akhtar Siddique, 2000. "Conditional Skewness in Asset Pricing Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1263-1295, June.
    13. Manganelli, Simone & White, Halbert & Kim, Tae-Hwan, 2008. "Modeling autoregressive conditional skewness and kurtosis with multi-quantile CAViaR," Working Paper Series 957, European Central Bank.
    14. Chunhachinda, Pornchai & Dandapani, Krishnan & Hamid, Shahid & Prakash, Arun J., 1997. "Portfolio selection and skewness: Evidence from international stock markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 143-167, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Arturo Lorenzo Valdés & Antonio Ruiz Porras, 2014. "Un modelo Tgarch con una distribución t de student asimétrica y las hipótesis de racionalidad de los inversionistas bursátiles en Latinoamérica," Archivos Revista Economía y Política., Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Administrativas, Universidad de Cuenca., vol. 19, pages 66-97, Enero.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Conditional Asymmetry; GARCH; Skewness; Stock Market Returns; Mexico;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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