IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/eurjfi/v22y2016i13p1237-1271.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Which parametric model for conditional skewness?

Author

Listed:
  • Bruno Feunou
  • Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar
  • Roméo Tédongap

Abstract

This paper addresses an existing gap in the developing literature on conditional skewness. We develop a simple procedure to evaluate parametric conditional skewness models. This procedure is based on regressing the realized skewness measures on model-implied conditional skewness values. We find that an asymmetric generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity specification on shape parameters with a skewed generalized error distribution provides the best in-sample fit for the data, as well as reasonable predictions of the realized skewness measure. Our empirical findings imply significant asymmetry with respect to positive and negative news in both conditional asymmetry and kurtosis processes.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruno Feunou & Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar & Roméo Tédongap, 2016. "Which parametric model for conditional skewness?," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(13), pages 1237-1271, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:22:y:2016:i:13:p:1237-1271
    DOI: 10.1080/1351847X.2013.877515
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/1351847X.2013.877515
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/1351847X.2013.877515?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christoffersen, Peter & Heston, Steve & Jacobs, Kris, 2006. "Option valuation with conditional skewness," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 253-284.
    2. Davidson, James, 1994. "Stochastic Limit Theory: An Introduction for Econometricians," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774037.
    3. Anders Wilhelmsson, 2009. "Value at Risk with time varying variance, skewness and kurtosis--the NIG-ACD model," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 12(1), pages 82-104, March.
    4. Eric Ghysels & Alberto Plazzi & Rossen I. Valkanov, 2011. "Conditional Skewness of Stock Market Returns in Developed and Emerging Markets and its Economic Fundamentals," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 11-06, Swiss Finance Institute.
    5. Andrew J. Patton, 2004. "On the Out-of-Sample Importance of Skewness and Asymmetric Dependence for Asset Allocation," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 2(1), pages 130-168.
    6. Jennifer Conrad & Robert F. Dittmar & Eric Ghysels, 2013. "Ex Ante Skewness and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(1), pages 85-124, February.
    7. Chen, Joseph & Hong, Harrison & Stein, Jeremy C., 2001. "Forecasting crashes: trading volume, past returns, and conditional skewness in stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(3), pages 345-381, September.
    8. Harvey, Campbell R. & Siddique, Akhtar, 1999. "Autoregressive Conditional Skewness," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(4), pages 465-487, December.
    9. A. C. Kimber & C. Jeynes, 1987. "An Application of the Truncated Two‐Piece Normal Distribution to the Measurement of Depths of Arsenic Implants in Silicon," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 36(3), pages 352-357, November.
    10. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. "On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
    11. Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993. "Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1749-1778, December.
    12. Ghysels, Eric & Santa-Clara, Pedro & Valkanov, Rossen, 2005. "There is a risk-return trade-off after all," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 509-548, June.
    13. Anthony Neuberger, 2012. "Realized Skewness," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(11), pages 3423-3455.
    14. Eric Ghysels & Arthur Sinko & Rossen Valkanov, 2007. "MIDAS Regressions: Further Results and New Directions," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(1), pages 53-90.
    15. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 2003. "Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(2), pages 579-625, March.
    16. Jondeau, Eric & Rockinger, Michael, 2003. "Conditional volatility, skewness, and kurtosis: existence, persistence, and comovements," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(10), pages 1699-1737, August.
    17. Jarque, Carlos M. & Bera, Anil K., 1980. "Efficient tests for normality, homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 255-259.
    18. Campbell R. Harvey & Akhtar Siddique, 2000. "Conditional Skewness in Asset Pricing Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1263-1295, June.
    19. Andersen T. G & Bollerslev T. & Diebold F. X & Labys P., 2001. "The Distribution of Realized Exchange Rate Volatility," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 42-55, March.
    20. Jacob A. Mincer & Victor Zarnowitz, 1969. "The Evaluation of Economic Forecasts," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Forecasts and Expectations: Analysis of Forecasting Behavior and Performance, pages 3-46, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    22. Garland Durham & Yang-Ho Park, 2013. "Beyond Stochastic Volatility and Jumps in Returns and Volatility," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 107-121, January.
    23. Chris Brooks, 2005. "Autoregressive Conditional Kurtosis," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 3(3), pages 399-421.
    24. Kurt Brannas & Niklas Nordman, 2003. "Conditional skewness modelling for stock returns," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(11), pages 725-728.
    25. Kim, Tae-Hwan & White, Halbert, 2004. "On more robust estimation of skewness and kurtosis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 56-73, March.
    26. Leon, Angel & Rubio, Gonzalo & Serna, Gregorio, 2005. "Autoregresive conditional volatility, skewness and kurtosis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-5), pages 599-618, September.
    27. Chernov, Mikhail, 2007. "On the Role of Risk Premia in Volatility Forecasting," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 411-426, October.
    28. Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmermann, 2008. "International asset allocation under regime switching, skew, and kurtosis preferences," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(2), pages 889-935, April.
    29. Ghysels, Eric & Santa-Clara, Pedro & Valkanov, Rossen, 2006. "Predicting volatility: getting the most out of return data sampled at different frequencies," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 59-95.
    30. Hansen, Bruce E, 1994. "Autoregressive Conditional Density Estimation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 35(3), pages 705-730, August.
    31. Markku Lanne & Saikkonen Pentti, 2007. "Modeling Conditional Skewness in Stock Returns," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(8), pages 691-704.
    32. Bruno Feunou & Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar & Roméo Tédongap, 2013. "Modeling Market Downside Volatility," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 17(1), pages 443-481.
    33. Matteo Grigoletto & Francesco Lisi, 2009. "Looking for skewness in financial time series," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 12(2), pages 310-323, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Daniel O. Beltran & Deepa Dhume Datta & Thiago Revil T. Ferreira & Matteo Iacoviello & Mohammad Jahan-Parvar & Canlin Li & Juan M. Londono & Marius del Giudice Rodriguez & John H. Rogers & Bo Sun, 2017. "Taxonomy of Global Risk, Uncertainty, and Volatility Measures," International Finance Discussion Papers 1216, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Delis, Manthos D. & Savva, Christos S. & Theodossiou, Panayiotis, 2021. "The impact of the coronavirus crisis on the market price of risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    3. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Cisil Sarisoy & Juan M. Londono & Bo Sun & Deepa D. Datta & Thiago Ferreira & Olesya Grishchenko & Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar & Francesca Loria & Sai Ma & Marius Rodriguez & Ilk, 2023. "What Is Certain about Uncertainty?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 61(2), pages 624-654, June.
    4. Sirio Aramonte & Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar & Samuel Rosen & John W. Schindler, 2022. "Firm-Specific Risk-Neutral Distributions with Options and CDS," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(9), pages 7018-7033, September.
    5. Feunou, Bruno & Okou, Cédric, 2019. "Good Volatility, Bad Volatility, and Option Pricing," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 54(2), pages 695-727, April.
    6. Wang, Qingxia & Faff, Robert & Zhu, Min, 2022. "Realized moments and the cross-sectional stock returns around earnings announcements," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 408-427.
    7. Papantonis Ioannis & Rompolis Leonidas S. & Tzavalis Elias & Agapitos Orestis, 2023. "Augmenting the Realized-GARCH: the role of signed-jumps, attenuation-biases and long-memory effects," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 27(2), pages 171-198, April.
    8. León, Ángel & Ñíguez, Trino-Manuel, 2020. "Modeling asset returns under time-varying semi-nonparametric distributions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    9. Bruno Feunou & Ricardo Lopez Aliouchkin & Roméo Tedongap & Lai Xi, 2017. "Variance Premium, Downside Risk and Expected Stock Returns," Staff Working Papers 17-58, Bank of Canada.
    10. Huang, Tao & Li, Junye, 2019. "Option-Implied variance asymmetry and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 21-36.
    11. Papantonis, Ioannis & Rompolis, Leonidas & Tzavalis, Elias, 2023. "Improving variance forecasts: The role of Realized Variance features," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1221-1237.
    12. León, Ángel & Ñíguez, Trino-Manuel, 2021. "The transformed Gram Charlier distribution: Parametric properties and financial risk applications," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 323-349.
    13. Jahan-Parvar, Mohammad R. & Mohammadi, Hassan, 2013. "Risk and return in the Tehran stock exchange," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 238-256.
    14. Dai, Yiming & Jiang, Yuexiang & Long, Huaigang & Wang, Hui & Zaremba, Adam, 2023. "Does realized skewness predict the cross-section of Chinese stock returns?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PB).
    15. Trung H. Le & Apostolos Kourtis & Raphael Markellos, 2023. "Modeling skewness in portfolio choice," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 734-770, June.
    16. Fang Liang & Lingshan Du, 2024. "Option pricing with dynamic conditional skewness," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(7), pages 1154-1188, July.
    17. Zhang, Zehua & Zhao, Ran, 2023. "Good volatility, bad volatility, and the cross section of cryptocurrency returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    18. Trung H. Le, 2024. "Forecasting VaR and ES in emerging markets: The role of time‐varying higher moments," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(2), pages 402-414, March.
    19. Le, Trung H., 2020. "Forecasting value at risk and expected shortfall with mixed data sampling," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1362-1379.
    20. Lang, Korbinian & Auer, Benjamin R., 2020. "The economic and financial properties of crude oil: A review," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sylvia J. Soltyk & Felix Chan, 2023. "Modeling time‐varying higher‐order conditional moments: A survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 33-57, February.
    2. Cheng, Ai-Ru & Jahan-Parvar, Mohammad R., 2014. "Risk–return trade-off in the pacific basin equity markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 123-140.
    3. Lai, Jing-yi, 2012. "Shock-dependent conditional skewness in international aggregate stock markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 72-83.
    4. Dark Jonathan Graeme, 2010. "Estimation of Time Varying Skewness and Kurtosis with an Application to Value at Risk," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(2), pages 1-50, March.
    5. Shum, Wai Yan, 2020. "Modelling conditional skewness: Heterogeneous beliefs, short sale restrictions and market declines," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    6. Liu, Xiaochun & Luger, Richard, 2015. "Unfolded GARCH models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 186-217.
    7. Jahan-Parvar, Mohammad R. & Mohammadi, Hassan, 2013. "Risk and return in the Tehran stock exchange," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 238-256.
    8. Trung H. Le & Apostolos Kourtis & Raphael Markellos, 2023. "Modeling skewness in portfolio choice," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 734-770, June.
    9. Alizadeh, Amir H. & Gabrielsen, Alexandros, 2013. "Dynamics of credit spread moments of European corporate bond indexes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 3125-3144.
    10. Changli He & Annastiina Silvennoinen & Timo Teräsvirta, 2008. "Parameterizing Unconditional Skewness in Models for Financial Time Series," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(2), pages 208-230, Spring.
    11. Lin, Chu-Hsiung & Changchien, Chang-Cheng & Kao, Tzu-Chuan & Kao, Wei-Shun, 2014. "High-order moments and extreme value approach for value-at-risk," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 421-434.
    12. Matteo Grigoletto & Francesco Lisi, 2011. "Practical implications of higher moments in risk management," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 20(4), pages 487-506, November.
    13. Sévi, Benoît, 2013. "An empirical analysis of the downside risk-return trade-off at daily frequency," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 189-197.
    14. Kyungsub Lee, 2013. "Probabilistic and statistical properties of moment variations and their use in inference and estimation based on high frequency return data," Papers 1311.5036, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2015.
    15. Wang, Tianyi & Liang, Fang & Huang, Zhuo & Yan, Hong, 2022. "Do realized higher moments have information content? - VaR forecasting based on the realized GARCH-RSRK model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    16. Simon Lalancette & Jean†Guy Simonato, 2017. "The Role of the Conditional Skewness and Kurtosis in VIX Index Valuation," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 23(2), pages 325-354, March.
    17. Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2006. "Financial Asset Returns, Direction-of-Change Forecasting, and Volatility Dynamics," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(8), pages 1273-1287, August.
    18. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2016-001 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Carol Alexander & Emese Lazar, 2009. "Modelling Regime‐Specific Stock Price Volatility," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(6), pages 761-797, December.
    20. Geon Ho Choe & Kyungsub Lee, 2013. "High moment variations and their application," Papers 1311.4973, arXiv.org.
    21. Bouri, Elie & Jalkh, Naji, 2023. "Spillovers of joint volatility-skewness-kurtosis of major cryptocurrencies and their determinants," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:22:y:2016:i:13:p:1237-1271. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/REJF20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.