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Developed speculation and underdeveloped markets--the role of futures trading on export prices in less developed countries

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  • Randall Fortenbery

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between New York coffee futures and cash export prices in Guatemala and Honduras . Cointegration tests suggest that the futures market is serving its price discovery function, and provides a vehicle by which to manage the domestic price risk in export countries. However, further analysis finds that as the percent of speculative open interest increases in the coffee futures market, price volatility increases. This suggests that cash market price risk in exporting countries may actually increase as a result of futures trading activity in developed country futures exchanges.
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  • Randall Fortenbery, 2004. "Developed speculation and underdeveloped markets--the role of futures trading on export prices in less developed countries," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 31(4), pages 451-471, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:erevae:v:31:y:2004:i:4:p:451-471
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    1. Hector O. Zapata & T. Randall Fortenbery, 1996. "Stochastic Interest Rates and Price Discovery in Selected Commodity Markets," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 18(4), pages 643-654.
    2. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    3. C. W. Morgan & A. J. Rayner & C. Vaillant, 1999. "Agricultural futures markets in LDCs: a policy response to price volatility?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 893-910.
    4. T. Randall Fortenbery & Hector O. Zapata, 1993. "An examination of cointegration relations between futures and local grain markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(8), pages 921-932, December.
    5. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    6. T. Randall Fortenbery & Hector O. Zapata, 1997. "An evaluation of price linkages between futures and cash markets for cheddar cheese," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(3), pages 279-301, May.
    7. Lutkepohl, Helmut & Reimers, Hans-Eggert, 1992. "Impulse response analysis of cointegrated systems," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 53-78, January.
    8. Nguyen, Duc Tin, 1980. "Partial Price Stabilization and Export Earning Instability," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 32(2), pages 340-352, July.
    9. James T. Witherspoon, 1993. "How price discovery by futures impacts the cash market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(5), pages 469-496, August.
    10. Gemmill, Gordon, 1985. "Forward Contracts or International Buffer Stocks? A Study of Their Relative Efficiencies in Stabilising Commodity Export Earnings," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 95(378), pages 400-417, June.
    11. David A. Bessler & Ted Covey, 1991. "Cointegration: Some results on U.S. cattle prices," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(4), pages 461-474, August.
    12. Benton F. Massell, 1969. "Price Stabilization and Welfare," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 83(2), pages 284-298.
    13. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    14. Ted C. Schroeder & Barry K. Goodwin, 1991. "Price discovery and cointegration for live hogs," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 685-696, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zapata, T. Randall Fortenbery & Armstrong, Delroy, 2005. "Price Discovery in the World Sugar Futures and Cash Markets: Implications for the Domincan Republic," Staff Paper Series 469, University of Wisconsin, Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    2. Bozic, Marin, 2011. "Three essays in commodity futures and options price performance," Faculty and Alumni Dissertations 160678, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    3. Sushil Mohan & Bill Russell, 2008. "Modelling Thirty Five Years Of Coffee Prices In Brazil, Guatemala And India," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 221, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
    4. John M. Fry & Baoying Lai & Mark Rhodes, 2011. "The interdependence of Coffee spot and futures market," Working Papers 2011.1, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    5. Park, Hwanil & Fortenbery, T. Randall, 2007. "The Effect of Ethanol Production on the U.S. National Corn Price," 2007 Conference, April 16-17, 2007, Chicago, Illinois 37565, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    6. Ling‐Yun He & Wen‐Si Xie, 2012. "Who has the final say?," China Agricultural Economic Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 4(3), pages 379-390, August.
    7. Sushil Mohan, 2007. "Market-Based Price-Risk Management for Coffee Producers," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 199, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
    8. Covindassamy, Genevre & Robe, Michel A. & Wallen, Jonathan, 2016. "Sugar With Your Coffee?: Financials, Fundamentals, and Soft Price Uncertainty," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 8588, Inter-American Development Bank.
    9. Li, Yingzi & Fortenbery, T. Randall, 2013. "Do Speculators in Futures Markets Make Cash Markets More Volatile?," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 151296, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    10. Maurice, Noemie & Davis, Junior, 2011. "Unravelling the underlying causes of price volatility in world coffee and cocoa commodity markets," MPRA Paper 43813, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2012.
    11. Bozic, Marin & Fortenbery, T., 2015. "Price Discovery, Volatility Spillovers and Adequacy of Speculation when Spot Prices are Stationary: The Case of U.S. Dairy Markets," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211369, International Association of Agricultural Economists.

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