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Price efficiency and speculative trading in cocoa futures markets

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  • Nardella, Michele

Abstract

In recent years a number of market participants called into question the efficiency of the price discovery mechanism in commodity futures markets. They believe that speculators move commodity futures markets away from their fundamentals by distorting prices and exacerbating volatility. The smoking gun of these allegations is the empirical observation that speculative buying (selling) precedes movements in the cocoa futures markets. Among soft commodities, the cocoa futures market represents an interesting case study. In the last decades, speculators' open interest is increased by nearly 4 times, fuelling the apprehension of practitioners and market analysts. This paper evaluates the efficiency of the price discovery mechanism in cocoa futures markets. Results show that the price discovery mechanism in both LIFFE and NYBOT cocoa futures markets is efficient. In addition, they rule out the existence of any casual relationship between speculative activity and cocoa prices (i.e. level and volatility) at the least for the NYBOT. This evidence supports the hypothesis that successful speculators are reacting quicker than any other market participant to new information emerging from the market. That is why profitable speculative buying (selling) occurs just before the market makes a move.

Suggested Citation

  • Nardella, Michele, 2007. "Price efficiency and speculative trading in cocoa futures markets," 81st Annual Conference, April 2-4, 2007, Reading University, UK 7970, Agricultural Economics Society.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aes007:7970
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.7970
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Kazakova, M.V. (Казакова, М.В.) & Kiblitskaya, T.R. (Киблицкая, Т.Р.) & Lyubimov, I.L. (Любимов, И.Л.) & Nesterova, K.V. (Нестерова, К.В.), 2016. "Inequality and Economic Growth: An Empirical Evaluation of Foreign Countries and Russia [Неравенство И Экономический Рост: Эмпирические Оценки Для Зарубежных Стран И России]," Working Papers 2043, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    2. Maurice, Noemie & Davis, Junior, 2011. "Unravelling the underlying causes of price volatility in world coffee and cocoa commodity markets," MPRA Paper 43813, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2012.

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