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Volatility of primary commodity prices: some evidence from agricultural exports in Sub-Saharan Africa

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  • Raymond B Swaray

Abstract

This paper utilizes three univariate ARCH-type models to empirically examine persistence and asymmetry in volatility of prices of primary agricultural commodities produced in Sub-Sahara Africa. Maximum likelihood estimation results of the three models ranked the GARCH version as the best statistical fit, lending support for hypotheses of persistence, symmetry and variability in volatility. This pattern of volatility could effectively jeopardize the success of traditional commodity price risk management policies used in this region. Policymakers should appreciate potential benefits associated with market-based strategies for managing commodity exposure of these countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Raymond B Swaray, "undated". "Volatility of primary commodity prices: some evidence from agricultural exports in Sub-Saharan Africa," Discussion Papers 02/06, Department of Economics, University of York.
    • Handle: RePEc:yor:yorken:02/06
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    2. Akiyama, Takamasa & Larson, Donald F. & DEC, 1994. "The adding-up problem : strategies for primary commodity exports in sub-Saharan Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1245, The World Bank.
    3. Zakoian, Jean-Michel, 1994. "Threshold heteroskedastic models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 931-955, September.
    4. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. "On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
    5. Offutt, Susan E. & Blandford, David, 1986. "Commodity market instability : Empirical techniques for analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 62-72, March.
    6. Larson, Donald F. & Varangis, Panos & Yabuki, Nanae, 1998. "Commodity risk management and development," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1963, The World Bank.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Daniel Cohen & Thibault Fally & Sébastien Villemot, 2007. "Commodity Funds: How To Fix Them?," OECD Development Centre Policy Briefs 32, OECD Publishing.
    2. Maurice, Noemie & Davis, Junior, 2011. "Unravelling the underlying causes of price volatility in world coffee and cocoa commodity markets," MPRA Paper 43813, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2012.
    3. Daniel Cohen & Hélène Djoufelkit-Cottenet & Pierre Jacquet & Cécile Valadier, 2008. "Lending to the Poorest Countries: A New Counter-Cyclical Debt Instrument," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 269, OECD Publishing.
    4. Haryo Kuncoro, 2011. "The volatility of world crude oil prices," Economic Journal of Emerging Markets, Universitas Islam Indonesia, vol. 3(1), pages 1-15, April.
    5. Matthew Kofi Ocran & Nicholas Biekpe, 2007. "The Role Of Commodity Prices In Macroeconomic Policy In South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 75(2), pages 213-220, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    GARCH; TGARCH; EGARCH; price volatility; agricultural commodities; Sub-Saharan Africa.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade

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