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Оценивание Равновесного Реального Обменного Курса Российского Рубля
[Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate for Russia]

Author

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  • Shumilov, Andrei
  • Sosunov, Kirill

Abstract

Following methodological approach proposed by Edwards, the paper estimates empirically Russia's equilibrium real exchange rate (ERER) for the period 1995–2003. ERER is defined as the relative price of non-tradables to tradables consistent with the simultaneous achievement of internal and external balances of the economy. Reduced form solution of simultaneous equations system relates ERER to a set of variables called fundamentals. These variables are identified as terms of trade, production of non-tradables, and capital flows; and the reduced form equation is estimated using Johansen cointegration technique. Effects of monetary and fiscal policies’ variables on the short-run dynamics of the real exchange rate and the speed of its adjustment towards the equilibrium are also investigated within a framework of error-correction model.

Suggested Citation

  • Shumilov, Andrei & Sosunov, Kirill, 2005. "Оценивание Равновесного Реального Обменного Курса Российского Рубля [Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate for Russia]," MPRA Paper 42978, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:42978
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Skrobotov, Anton (Скроботов, Антон) & Fokin, Nikita (Фокин, Никита), 2018. "Testing the Asymmetric Convergence of the Real Exchange Rate to Equilibrium During the Managed Ruble Exchange Rate Regime [Тестирование Ассиметричной Сходимости Реального Обменного Курса К Равновес," Working Papers 021808, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    2. Andrey Feliksovich Bedin & Alexander Vladimirovich Kulikov & Andrey Vladimirovich Polbin, 2021. "A Markov Switching VECM Model for Russian Real GDP, Real Exchange Rate and Oil Prices," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(2), pages 402-412.
    3. A. Polbin., 2017. "Modeling the real ruble exchange rate under monetary policy regime change," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 4.
    4. Bozhechkova, Alexandra (Божечкова, Александра) & Trunin, Pavel (Трунин, Павел), 2015. "Factor Analysis of the Dynamics of the Real Exchange Rate of the Ruble [Анализ Факторов Динамики Реального Валютного Курса Рубля]," Published Papers mn11, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    5. Polbin, Andrey & Shumilov, Andrei & Bedin, Andrei & Kulikov, Alexander, 2019. "Modeling real exchange rate of the Russian ruble using Markov regime switching approach," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 55, pages 32-50.
    6. Daniil Lomonosov & Andrey Polbin & Nikita Fokin, 2021. "The Impact of Global Economic Activity, Oil Supply and Speculative Oil Shocks on the Russian Economy," HSE Economic Journal, National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 25(2), pages 227-262.
    7. Trunin, Pavel (Трунин, Павел) & Bozhechkova, Alexandra (Божечкова, Александра), 2015. "Analysis of Factors Affecting the Dynamics of the Real Ruble Exchange Rate [Анализ Факторов Динамики Реального Валютного Курса Рубля]," Published Papers mak13, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    8. Yana Valeryevna Dyomina, 2014. "Balance of Payments of East Asian Countries: Impact of the Coordinated Monetary Policy," Spatial Economics=Prostranstvennaya Ekonomika, Economic Research Institute, Far Eastern Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences (Khabarovsk, Russia), issue 1, pages 138-152.
    9. Nikita D. Fokin & Ekaterina V. Malikova & Andrey V. Polbin, 2024. "Time-varying parameters error correction model for real ruble exchange rate and oil prices: What has changed due to capital control and sanctions?," Russian Journal of Economics, ARPHA Platform, vol. 10(1), pages 20-33, March.
    10. Skrobotov, Anton A. (Скроботов, Антон) & Fokin, Nikita D. (Фокин, Никита), 2018. "Testing Asymmetric Convergence of the Real Exchange Rate to Equilibrium During Ruble Exchange Rate Targeting [Тестирование Асимметричной Сходимости Реального Обменного Курса К Равновесному Во Время," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 3, pages 132-147, June.
    11. Sosunov, K. & Ushakov, N., 2009. "Determination of the Real Exchange Rate of the Ruble and Assessment of Long-Run Policy of Real Exchange Rate Targeting," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, issue 3-4, pages 97-121.
    12. Pavel Trunin & Dmitriy Kniazev & Ekaterina Kuduykina, 2010. "Perspective issues in the CBR`s exchange rate policy," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 144P.
    13. Polbin, Andrey, 2017. "Моделирование Реального Курса Рубля В Условиях Изменения Режима Денежно-Кредитной Политики [Modeling the real ruble exchange rate under monetary policy regime change]," MPRA Paper 78139, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Lomonosov, Daniil & Polbin, Andrey & Fokin, Nikita, 2020. "Влияние Шоков Мировой Деловой Активности, Предложения Нефти И Спекулятивных Нефтяных Шоков На Экономику Рф [The impact of global economic activity, oil supply and speculative oil shocks on the Russ," MPRA Paper 106019, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. A. V. Bozhechkova & S. G. Sinelnikov-Murylev & P. V. Trunin, 2020. "Factors of the Russian ruble exchange rate dynamics in the 2000s and 2010s," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 8.
    16. Shumilov, Andrei, 2019. "Модели Зависимости Реального Курса Рубля От Цены И Стоимости Экспорта Нефти: Сравнительный Анализ [Oil prices versus oil export revenues as fundamental factors of the real Russian ruble exchange ra," MPRA Paper 96400, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. A. Polbin, 2017. "Modeling the real ruble exchange rate under monetary policyregime change," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 4.
    18. Polbin, Andrey & Shumilov, Andrei & Bedin, Andrey & Kulikov, Alexander, 2019. "Модель Реального Обменного Курса Рубля С Марковскими Переключениями Режимов [Modeling real exchange rate of the Russian ruble using Markov regime-switching approach]," MPRA Paper 93310, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    macroeconomics; equilibrium real exchange rate; Russia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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