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Modeling real exchange rate of the Russian ruble using Markov regime switching approach

Author

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  • Polbin, Andrey

    (RANEPA, Gaidar Institute, Moscow, Russian Federation)

  • Shumilov, Andrei

    (RANEPA, Moscow, Russian Federation)

  • Bedin, Andrei

    (RANEPA, MIPT, Moscow, Russian Federation)

  • Kulikov, Alexander

    (RANEPA, MIPT, Moscow, Russian Federation)

Abstract

The paper analyzes the relationship between the real Russian ruble exchange rate and real oil prices using the error correction model with Markov regime switching, which allows for changes in exchange rate policy. It is found that during the period 1999–2018 real exchange rate dynamics was characterized by two clearly distinguishable regimes, one with fast and the other with slow adjustment to long-term equilibrium in response to oil price shocks. Further model testing shows that long-term relationship between real exchange rate and oil price is invariant to regime change. It is also found that, despite adoption of a floating exchange rate policy in 2014, inflexible real exchange rate regime has been periodically identified in recent years. This could be due to the new budget rule, according to which Russian Ministry of Finance in February 2017 started purchasing foreign currencies in amount of excess oil and gas earnings of the federal budget.

Suggested Citation

  • Polbin, Andrey & Shumilov, Andrei & Bedin, Andrei & Kulikov, Alexander, 2019. "Modeling real exchange rate of the Russian ruble using Markov regime switching approach," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 55, pages 32-50.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:apltrx:0373
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Andrey Feliksovich Bedin & Alexander Vladimirovich Kulikov & Andrey Vladimirovich Polbin, 2021. "A Markov Switching VECM Model for Russian Real GDP, Real Exchange Rate and Oil Prices," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(2), pages 402-412.
    2. Andrey Bedin & Alexander Kulikov & Andrey Polbin, 2023. "Copula-Based Modelling of Relationship Between Dollar/Rouble Exchange Rate and Oil Prices," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 82(3), pages 87-109, September.
    3. Nikita D. Fokin & Ekaterina V. Malikova & Andrey V. Polbin, 2024. "Time-varying parameters error correction model for real ruble exchange rate and oil prices: What has changed due to capital control and sanctions?," Russian Journal of Economics, ARPHA Platform, vol. 10(1), pages 20-33, March.
    4. Polbin, Andrey & Skrobotov, Anton, 2022. "On decrease in oil price elasticity of GDP and investment in Russia," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 66, pages 5-24.
    5. D. A. Menshikh, 2021. "Estimation of fiscal rule impact on Russian ruble equilibrium exchange rate," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 2.
    6. Bozhechkova, Alexandra (Божечкова, Александра) & Ivanov, Evgeny (Иванов, Евгений) & Orekhov, Mikhail (Орехов, Михаил) & Trunin, Pavel (Трунин, Павел) & Chembulatova, Maria (Чембулатова, Мария) & Yakov, 2021. "Analysis of the Behavior of Banks and Companies in the Conditions of Exchange Volatility in Russia [Анализ Поведения Банков И Компаний В Условиях Курсовой Волатильности В России]," Working Papers w20220176, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    7. A. V. Bozhechkova & S. G. Sinelnikov-Murylev & P. V. Trunin, 2020. "Factors of the Russian ruble exchange rate dynamics in the 2000s and 2010s," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 8.
    8. Aleksandr Eliseev & Anna Novak & Andrey Shulgin, 2023. "Long-Term Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Prices," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 82(2), pages 21-51, June.
    9. Shumilov, Andrei, 2019. "Модели Зависимости Реального Курса Рубля От Цены И Стоимости Экспорта Нефти: Сравнительный Анализ [Oil prices versus oil export revenues as fundamental factors of the real Russian ruble exchange ra," MPRA Paper 96400, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Polbin, Andrey & Shumilov, Andrei, 2020. "Модель Зависимости Обменного Курса Рубля От Цен На Нефть С Марковскими Переключениями Режимов [Modeling the relationship between the Russian ruble exchange rate and oil prices: A Markov regime swit," MPRA Paper 102450, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    real effective exchange rate; Russia; oil prices; Markov regime switching model; error correction model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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