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Modeling and Forecasting Inflation in Japan

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  • Mr. Toshitaka Sekine

Abstract

This paper estimates an inflation function and forecasts one-year ahead inflation for Japan. It finds that (i) markup relationships, excess money and the output gap are particularly relevant long-run determinants for an equilibrium correction model (EqCM) of inflation; (ii) with intercept corrections, one-year ahead inflation forecast performance of the EqCM is good; and (iii) forecast accuracy can be improved by combining forecasts of the EqCM with those made by rival models. The EqCM obtained would serve for structural model-based inflation forecasting. It also highlights the importance of adjustment to a pure model-based forecast by utilizing information of alternative models. The methodology employed is applicable to a wider range of countries including some emerging market economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Toshitaka Sekine, 2001. "Modeling and Forecasting Inflation in Japan," IMF Working Papers 2001/082, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2001/082
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    Cited by:

    1. Sekine, Toshitaka, 2009. "Another look at global disinflation," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 220-239, June.
    2. Ngozi C. Ewurum & Chris U. Kalu & Damian J. Nwankwo, 2017. "Inflation Targeting and Economic Growth Nexus in Nigeria: Implications for Monetary Policy," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 7(1), pages 12-27, January.
    3. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan & Sekine, Toshitaka, 2008. "Monetary factors and inflation in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 343-363, September.
    4. Adam Gersl & Jakub Seidler, 2011. "Credit Growth and Capital Buffers: Empirical Evidence from Central and Eastern European Countries," Research and Policy Notes 2011/02, Czech National Bank.
    5. Mr. Emilio Sacerdoti & Mr. Yuan Xiao, 2001. "Inflation Dynamics in Madagascar, 1971-2000," IMF Working Papers 2001/168, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Adam Gersl & Jakub Seidler, 2012. "Excessive Credit Growth and Countercyclical Capital Buffers in Basel III: An Empirical Evidence from Central and East European Countries," ACTA VSFS, University of Finance and Administration, vol. 6(2), pages 91-107.
    7. Zeren, Fatma & Korap, Levent, 2010. "A cost-based empirical model of the aggregate price determination for the Turkish economy: a multivariate cointegration approach," MPRA Paper 23655, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Adam Geršl & Jakub Seidler, 2012. "Credit Growth and Countercyclical Capital Buffers: Empirical Evidence from Central and Eastern European Countries," Working Papers IES 2012/3, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Feb 2012.
    9. Kandil Magda & Mirzaie Ida A., 2017. "Iran’s Inflationary Experience: Demand Pressures, External Shocks, and Supply Constraints," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 13(2), pages 1-19, August.
    10. Kitov, Ivan & KItov, Oleg, 2013. "Inflation, unemployment, and labor force. Phillips curves and long-term projections for Japan," MPRA Paper 49388, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Ikechukwu Kelikume & Adedoyin Salami, 2014. "Time Series Modeling and Forecasting Information: Evidence from Nigeria," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 8(2), pages 41-51.
    12. Magda Kandil & Hanan Morsy, 2011. "Determinants of Inflation in GCC," Middle East Development Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 141-158, January.
    13. Ooft, Gavin, 2018. "Modelling and Forecasting Inflation for the Economy of Suriname," EconStor Preprints 215534, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    14. Rizwan Raheem AHMED & Dalia STREIMIKIENE & Saghir Pervaiz GHAURI & Muhammad AQIL, 2021. "Forecasting Inflation by Using the Sub-Groups of both CPI and WPI: Evidence from Auto Regression (AR) and ARIMA Models," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 144-161, June.
    15. John Galbraith & Greg Tkacz, 2007. "How Far Can Forecasting Models Forecast? Forecast Content Horizons for Some Important Macroeconomic Variables," Staff Working Papers 07-1, Bank of Canada.
    16. Brieuc Monfort & Santiago Peña, 2008. "Inflation Determinants in Paraguay: Cost Push versus Demand Pull Factors," IMF Working Papers 2008/270, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Fatma Zeren & Levent Korap, 2010. "A Cost-based Empirical Model of the Aggregate Price Determination for the Turkish Economy: A Multivariate Cointegration Approach," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 57(2), pages 173-188, June.
    18. Ooft, Gavin, 2020. "Forecasting Monthly Inflation: An Application To Suriname," Studies in Applied Economics 144, The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise.
    19. Oomes, Nienke & Ohnsorge, Franziska, 2005. "Money demand and inflation in dollarized economies: The case of Russia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 462-483, September.
    20. Goujon, Michael, 2006. "Fighting inflation in a dollarized economy: The case of Vietnam," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 564-581, September.
    21. Gerardo Esquivel & Raúl Razo, 2003. "Fuentes de la inflación en México, 1989-2000: Un análisis multicausal de corrección de errores," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 18(2), pages 181-226.
    22. Maruška Vizek & Tanja Broz, 2009. "Modeling Inflation in Croatia," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(6), pages 87-98, November.
    23. Man Wang & Kun Chen & Qin Luo & Chao Cheng, 2018. "Multi-Step Inflation Prediction with Functional Coefficient Autoregressive Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-16, May.
    24. Liew, Freddy, 2012. "Forecasting inflation in Asian economies," MPRA Paper 36781, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    25. Roma, Moreno & Skudelny, Frauke & Benalal, Nicholai & Diaz del Hoyo, Juan Luis & Landau, Bettina, 2004. "To aggregate or not to aggregate? Euro area inflation forecasting," Working Paper Series 374, European Central Bank.

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