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Is Chad affected by Dutch or Nigerian disease?

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  • Kablan, Sandrine
  • Loening, Josef

Abstract

We examine the effects of the ‘natural resource curse’ on Chad and find little evidence for Dutch disease. Structural vector auto-regression suggests that changes in domestic output and prices are overwhelmingly determined by aggregate demand and supply shocks, and while oil production and high international prices negatively affect agricultural output, the effects are small. Consistent with empirical evidence for neighbouring Cameroon, we observe minimal impact on Chad’s manufacturing sector. We associate our findings with structural underemployment and the inefficient use of existing production factors. In this context, increased public expenditures in tradable sectors present the opportunity to make oil revenues an engine of national development.

Suggested Citation

  • Kablan, Sandrine & Loening, Josef, 2012. "Is Chad affected by Dutch or Nigerian disease?," MPRA Paper 39799, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 02 Jul 2012.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:39799
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Natural resource curse; Dutch disease; Chad; Structural VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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