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Sovereign risk and debt sustainability: warning levels for Romania

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  • Zaman, Gheorghe
  • Georgescu, George

Abstract

Despite the governments took rescue and/or stimulus packages, signs of recovery occurring in 2009 and 2010, the global growth sustainability seems uncertain. Romania was hit hard by the crisis, suffering a severe contraction of the economy, estimated at 7.1 percent in 2009. The worsening of the external and internal financial framework of Romania and the danger of a currency market crisis urged the need for a financing agreement with IMF. The study shows that an excessive burden of external debt compared with financing resources needed to comply with the external payments obligations would maintain Romania on the brink of default risk. Collateral risks associated with unfavorable developments of Eurozone and also with pressures coming from a non-restructured public debt could make the default situation even unavoidable.

Suggested Citation

  • Zaman, Gheorghe & Georgescu, George, 2011. "Sovereign risk and debt sustainability: warning levels for Romania," MPRA Paper 32924, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:32924
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    Cited by:

    1. Zaman, Gheorghe & Georgescu, George, 2016. "Provocări în perioada tranziției la economia de piață în România. Creșterea gradului de îndatorare externă și internă [Challenges facing Romania during the period of transition to a market-based ec," MPRA Paper 70740, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Sorin Calea & Ioana Mihut & Mihaela Lutas, 2014. "The Sustainability Of Romania’S External Debt During The Recent Financial Crisis," CES Working Papers, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 6(2), pages 46-56, July.
    3. Ionel Bostan & Carmen Toderașcu & Anca Florentina Gavriluţă (Vatamanu), 2018. "Challenges and Vulnerabilities on Public Finance Sustainability. A Romanian Case Study," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-24, September.
    4. Axenciuc, Victor & Georgescu, George, 2017. "Gross Domestic Product – National Income of Romania 1862 – 2010. Secular statistical series and methodological foundations," MPRA Paper 84614, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Georgescu, George, 2013. "România în perioada post-criză: investiţiile străine directe şi efecte asupra echilibrului financiar extern [Romania in post-crisis period: foreign direct investments and effects on external financ," MPRA Paper 46531, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Georgescu, George, 2016. "The Gross Domestic Product. History, relevance and limitations in its interpretation," MPRA Paper 73644, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Georgescu, George, 2013. "Echilibrul financiar global şi riscul suveran în perioada post-criză [The Global Financial Balance and Post-Crisis Sovereign Risk]," MPRA Paper 50772, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. George GEORGESCU, 2012. "Changes In The Pattern Of Romania’S Foreign Trade Under The Global Crisis Impact," Romanian Journal of Economics, Institute of National Economy, vol. 35(2(44)), pages 139-159, December.
    9. Georgescu, George, 2015. "Argentina’s sovereign debt default: a critical view," MPRA Paper 62800, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Zaman, Gheorghe & Georgescu, George, 2014. "Romania’s external debt threats," Working Papers of Institute for Economic Forecasting 141215, Institute for Economic Forecasting.
    11. Georgescu, George, 2013. "Public debt, sovereign risk and sustainable development of Romania," MPRA Paper 57256, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Georgescu, George, 2017. "Paradigmele istoriei. Datoria publică a României în ultimii 100 de ani [History paradigms: the public debt of Romania in the last 100 years]," MPRA Paper 82219, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Georgescu, George, 2012. "Impactul crizei globale asupra structurii comerţului exterior al României [The Global Crisis Impact on Romanian Trade Structure]," MPRA Paper 36339, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Zaman, Gheorghe & Georgescu, George, 2016. "Stabilitatea financiară a României. Determinanți și proiecții pentru următoarele două decenii [Financial stability in Romania. Determinants and projections for the two next decades]," MPRA Paper 96078, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Georgescu, George, 2012. "Fluxurile ISD in contextul crizei globale [The FDI flows under the global crisis effects]," MPRA Paper 40842, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. George GEORGESCU, 2013. "Volatility Of International Financial Markets And Public Debt Sustainability," Romanian Journal of Economics, Institute of National Economy, vol. 37(2(46)), pages 135-152, December.
    17. Ismail AMANI & Brahim BOUYACOUB, 2022. "Fiscal and monetary policy effects on economic growth in Romania (1990-2020)," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(3(632), A), pages 197-206, Autumn.
    18. Georgescu, George, 2014. "Factori de creştere a sustenabilităţii datoriei publice [Drivers of increasing the public debt sustainability]," MPRA Paper 52957, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial crisis; global recession; anti-crisis measures; public debt; debt sustainability; sovereign risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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