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Romania’s external debt threats

Author

Listed:
  • Zaman, Gheorghe

    (Institute of National Economy, Romanian Academy)

  • Georgescu, George

    (Institute of National Economy, Romanian Academy)

Abstract

The paper focuses on the sharp increase in the external debt level, both sovereign and private, threatening Romania’s financial stability, associated with weaknesses and risks arising from an unpredictable business environment and an unfavourable global and regional context. The study highlights inter-conditional ties between short-term and long-term debt, public and private debt, internal and external public debt. The increase in long-term external debt stock (more than two times during 2007-2013) has led to a significant rise in the related annual service (17.8% of GDP in 2013), deteriorating the financial framework of Romania and the growth perspectives. Excessive levels of the external indebtedness and critical debt-to-GDP ratio are recorded in the case of Romania as compared to international standards and national specific, exposing the debt position to higher default risk. Despite large external borrowings, due to the lack of their efficiency, the results, in terms of economic development and competitiveness gains, are much below expectations. The easiness of appeal to external borrowings by successive governments and the debt rollover year by year contradicts the principle of intergenerational ethics.

Suggested Citation

  • Zaman, Gheorghe & Georgescu, George, 2014. "Romania’s external debt threats," Working Papers of Institute for Economic Forecasting 141215, Institute for Economic Forecasting.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:wpiecf:141215
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    File URL: http://www.ipe.ro/RePEc/WorkingPapers/wpiecf141215.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    7. Albu, Lucian-Liviu, 2008. "A simulation model of public debt sustainability," MPRA Paper 11713, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Zaman, Gheorghe & Georgescu, George, 2016. "Provocări în perioada tranziției la economia de piață în România. Creșterea gradului de îndatorare externă și internă [Challenges facing Romania during the period of transition to a market-based ec," MPRA Paper 70740, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Georgescu, George, 2017. "Paradigmele istoriei. Datoria publică a României în ultimii 100 de ani [History paradigms: the public debt of Romania in the last 100 years]," MPRA Paper 82219, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Bošnjak Mile, 2019. "Determinants of Current Account in Cases of Serbia and Romania: Time-Varying Parameters Approach," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 14(1), pages 21-33, June.
    4. Georgescu, George, 2016. "Prospects of Romania’s international investment position and financial stability risks," MPRA Paper 69501, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Zaman, Gheorghe & Georgescu, George, 2016. "Stabilitatea financiară a României. Determinanți și proiecții pentru următoarele două decenii [Financial stability in Romania. Determinants and projections for the two next decades]," MPRA Paper 96078, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    global crisis; external debt sustainability; macroeconomic efficiency; vulnerabilities of external debt; sovereign risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

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