IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/30440.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Motivations and strategies for a real revaluation of the Yuan

Author

Listed:
  • Dai, Meixing

Abstract

Most Western economists and policy makers agree that the Yuan is significantly undervalued and push the Chinese government for a large nominal revaluation of the Yuan. This paper, while surveying recent research on Chinese exchange rate policy, gives some new insights into this issue. Notably, this paper defends that China is not solely responsible for the Yuan’s undervaluation, the Chinese central bank cannot optimally invest an increasing amount of foreign currency reserves, and the Yuan’s nominal revaluation is not the only way to resolve the problem. After having analyzed the advantages and disadvantages of a nominal versus a real revaluation of the Yuan for the Chinese economy, I advocate and analyze, besides a modest nominal revaluation, a multitude of alternative policies to achieve a complete revaluation of the Yuan in real terms, which allows absorbing external disequilibrium while laying down the foundation for the long-term growth of the Chinese economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Dai, Meixing, 2011. "Motivations and strategies for a real revaluation of the Yuan," MPRA Paper 30440, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:30440
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/30440/2/MPRA_paper_30440.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Meixing Dai, 2006. "Inflation-targeting under a Managed Exchange Rate: the Case of the Chinese Central Bank," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 199-219.
    2. Kappler, Marcus & Reisen, Helmut & Schularick, Moritz & Turkisch, Edouard, 2013. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Large Exchange Rate Appreciations," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 24(3), pages 471-494.
    3. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Shang-Jin Wei, 2007. "Assessing China's exchange rate regime [‘Working with the IMF to strengthen exchange rate surveillance’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 22(51), pages 576-627.
    4. Richard N. Cooper, 2009. "The Future of the Dollar," Policy Briefs PB09-21, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    5. Qiangbing Chen, 2009. "Why China Should Invest Its Foreign Exchange Reserves in the Major US Banks," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 17(4), pages 1-17, July.
    6. Yi Wen, 2011. "Making sense of China’s excessive foreign reserves," Working Papers 2011-006, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    7. Yizhong Wang, 2010. "The internal and external equilibrium exchange rate of RMB: 1982–2010," Frontiers of Economics in China, Springer;Higher Education Press, vol. 5(2), pages 210-231, June.
    8. LATZER, Hélène & MAYNERIS, Florian, 2012. "Income distribution and vertical comparative advantage. Theory and evidence," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2012034, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    9. Yung Chul Park, 2010. "RMB Internationalization and Its Implications for Financial and Monetary Cooperation in East Asia," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 18(2), pages 1-21, March.
    10. Wang, Yajie & Hui, Xiaofeng & Soofi, Abdol S., 2007. "Estimating renminbi (RMB) equilibrium exchange rate," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 417-429.
    11. Kazuo Ueda, 2010. "Japan's Bubble, America's Bubble and China's Bubble," CARF F-Series CARF-F-236, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    12. Niall Ferguson & Moritz Schularick, 2011. "The End of Chimerica," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(1), pages 1-26, April.
    13. Tatom, John, 2007. "China currency dispute: is a rise in the yuan inevitable, necessary or desirable?," MPRA Paper 5366, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. W. Max Corden, 2009. "China's Exchange Rate Policy, Its Current Account Surplus and the Global Imbalances," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(541), pages 430-441, November.
    15. Pingfan Hong & Rob Vos & Keping Yao, 2008. "How China Could Contribute to a Benign Global Rebalancing?," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 16(5), pages 35-50, September.
    16. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2004. "On the Renminbi: The Choice between Adjustment under a Fixed Exchange Rate and Adustment under a Flexible Rate," Working Paper Series rwp04-037, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    17. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Fujii, Eiji, 2007. "The overvaluation of Renminbi undervaluation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 762-785, September.
    18. Zhigang Huang, 2010. "Monetary policy and trade imbalance adjustment," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 269-292.
    19. Das, Dilip K., 2009. "The evolution of renminbi yuan and the protracted debate on its undervaluation: An integrated review," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 570-579, September.
    20. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2010. "China's Current Account and Exchange Rate," NBER Chapters, in: China's Growing Role in World Trade, pages 231-271, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Jeffrey Frankel, 2005. "On the renminbi," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 6(03), pages 16-21, October.
    22. Jan Voon & Li Guangzhong & Jimmy Ran, 2006. "Does China really lose from RMB revaluation? Evidence from some export industries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(15), pages 1715-1723.
    23. Ted H Chu, 2005. "The Chinese RMB: Its Value, Its Peg, and Its Future," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 40(2), pages 7-17, April.
    24. Lin, Guijun & Schramm, Ronald M., 2003. "China's foreign exchange policies since 1979: A review of developments and an assessment," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 246-280.
    25. Ivan Roberts & Rod Tyers, 2003. "China's Exchange Rate Policy: The Case for Greater Flexibility," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 17(2), pages 155-184, June.
    26. Barry Eichengreen, 2005. "Is a Change in the Renminbi Exchange Rate in China's Interest?," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 4(1), pages 40-75, Winter.
    27. Tao Peng & Minsoo Lee & Christopher Gan, 2008. "Has the Chinese currency been undervalued?," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 49-66.
    28. Heikki Oksanen, 2010. "Pegging the Renminbi to a Basket - Facts, Prospects and Consequences," CESifo Working Paper Series 3254, CESifo.
    29. Coudert, Virginie & Couharde, Cecile, 2007. "Real equilibrium exchange rate in China is the renminbi undervalued?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 568-594, August.
    30. Miaojie Yu, 2010. "Does Appreciation of the RMB Decrease Imports to the U.S. from China?," Trade Working Papers 22040, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    31. Pierre Dehez & Daniela Tellone, 2013. "Data Games: Sharing Public Goods with Exclusion," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 15(4), pages 654-673, August.
    32. Tatom John A, 2007. "The US-China Currency Dispute: Is a Rise in the Yuan Necessary, Inevitable or Desirable?," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 7(3), pages 1-15, October.
    33. Cova, Pietro & Pisani, Massimiliano & Rebucci, Alessandro, 2010. "Macroeconomic Effects of China's Fiscal Stimulus," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 1983, Inter-American Development Bank.
    34. Xiaohui Liu & Conglai Fan, 2010. "The Model and Empirical Estimation of the Optimal Flexibility of RMB Exchange-Rate Regime: A Study Based on the Price-Stabilization," Frontiers of Economics in China-Selected Publications from Chinese Universities, Higher Education Press, vol. 5(2), pages 187-209, June.
    35. Yizhong Wang, 2010. "The Internal and External Equilibrium Exchange Rate of RMB: 1982–2010," Frontiers of Economics in China-Selected Publications from Chinese Universities, Higher Education Press, vol. 5(2), pages 210-231, June.
    36. repec:oup:ecpoli:v:22:y:2007:i::p:575-627 is not listed on IDEAS
    37. WHALLEY, John & XIN, Xian, 2010. "China's FDI and non-FDI economies and the sustainability of future high Chinese growth," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 123-135, March.
    38. Chao Zhu, 2010. "Measuring Net Foreign Assets: The Case of China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 18(5), pages 90-104, September.
    39. DANNE, Christian & SCHNABL, Gunther, 2008. "A role model for China? Exchange rate flexibility and monetary policy in Japan," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 183-196, June.
    40. Yue Ma & Huayu Sun, 2007. "Hot Money Inflows and Renminbi Revaluation Pressure," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 19-36.
    41. Pierre Dehez, 2011. "Allocation Of Fixed Costs: Characterization Of The (Dual) Weighted Shapley Value," International Game Theory Review (IGTR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 13(02), pages 141-157.
    42. Thierry Burger-Helmchen & Laurence Frank, 2011. "La création de rentes : une approche par les compétences et capacités dynamiques," Innovations, De Boeck Université, vol. 0(2), pages 89-111.
    43. Hélène Latzer & Florian Mayneris, 2011. "Trade in quality and income distribution: an analysis of the enlarged EU market," Working Papers of BETA 2011-21, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    44. Ceglowski Janet & Golub Stephen S., 2012. "Does China Still Have a Labor Cost Advantage?," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 12(3), pages 1-30, September.
    45. Oberpriller Christian M. & Sauer Beate & Sell Friedrich L., 2008. "The Undervaluation of the Yuan Dispute: Is a Repetition of Germany's Experience in 1969 Necessary, Inevitable or Desirable? A Comment and Reply to John A. Tatom," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 8(2), pages 1-15, June.
    46. Xiaohui Liu & Conglai Fan, 2010. "The model and empirical estimation of the optimal flexibility of RMB exchange-rate regime: A study based on the price-stabilization," Frontiers of Economics in China, Springer;Higher Education Press, vol. 5(2), pages 187-209, June.
    47. Hongyi Chen & Wensheng Peng & Chang Shu, 2009. "Renminbi as an International Currency: Potential and Policy Considerations," Working Papers 182009, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    48. Willem Thorbecke & Gordon Smith, 2010. "How Would an Appreciation of the Renminbi and Other East Asian Currencies Affect China's Exports?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 95-108, February.
    49. Yongzhong Wang, 2010. "Effectiveness of Capital Controls and Sterilizations in China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 18(3), pages 106-124, May.
    50. Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde, 2005. "Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate in China," Working Papers 2005-01, CEPII research center.
    51. Phylaktis, Kate & Girardin, Eric, 2001. "Foreign exchange markets in transition economies: China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 215-235, February.
    52. Bin Yao, 2008. "Research on the choice of RMB exchange rate regime," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 3(3), pages 356-379, September.
    53. Hamada, Koichi & Okada, Yasushi, 2009. "Monetary and international factors behind Japan's lost decade," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 200-219, June.
    54. John B. Taylor, 2009. "The Financial Crisis and the Policy Responses: An Empirical Analysis of What Went Wrong," NBER Working Papers 14631, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    55. Zhang, Fan & Pan, Zuohong, 2004. "Determination of China's long-run nominal exchange rate and official intervention," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 360-365.
    56. McKinnon, Ronald & Schnabl, Gunther, 2006. "Devaluing the dollar: A critical analysis of William Cline's case for a New Plaza Agreement," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 683-694, September.
    57. Xi Chen, 2011. "Increasing Returns to Scale in U.S. manufacturing industries: evidence from direct and reverse regression," Working Papers of BETA 2011-11, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    58. Mr. Papa M N'Diaye, 2010. "Transforming China: Insights from the Japanese Experience of the 1980s," IMF Working Papers 2010/284, International Monetary Fund.
    59. Julien Jacob, 2011. "Ambiguity and Optimal Technological Choice: Does the Liability Regime Matter?," Working Papers of BETA 2011-06, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    60. Huang, Haizhou & Wang, Shuilin, 2004. "Exchange rate regimes: China's experience and choices," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 336-342.
    61. Edmond Malinvaud & John Flemming & Edmund Phelps & Robert Solow & Anthony Atkinson & Olivier Blanchard & Jean-Paul Fitoussi, 1993. "Competitive Disinflation: The Mark and Budgetary Politics in Europe," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03393442, HAL.
    62. Xiaohui Liu & Jing Zhang, 2009. "RMB Exchange Market Pressure and Central Bank Exchange Market Intervention," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 17(3), pages 75-92, May.
    63. XU, Yingfeng, 2009. "Relevant international experience of real exchange rate adjustment for China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 440-451, September.
    64. Gunther Schnabl, 2011. "The role of the chinese dollar peg for macroeconomic stability in China and the world economy," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 13-2010, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    65. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2009. "The Case for Stabilizing China's Exchange Rate: Setting the Stage for Fiscal Expansion," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 17(1), pages 1-32, January.
    66. Eichengreen, Barry & Hatase, Mariko, 2007. "Can a rapidly growing export-oriented economy exit smoothly from a currency peg? Lessons from Japan's high-growth era," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 501-521, July.
    67. Jie Sun, 2010. "Retrospect of the Chinese Exchange Rate Regime after Reform: Stylized Facts during the Period from 2005 to 2010," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 18(6), pages 19-35, November.
    68. James Laurenceson & Kam Ki Tang, 2007. "Opening China's Capital Account: Modeling the Capital Flow Response," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1-18.
    69. Wing Thye Woo, 2006. "The Structural Nature of Internal and External Imbalances in China," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1-19.
    70. Nicholas Lardy & Patrick Douglass, 2011. "Capital Account Liberalization and the Role of the Renminbi," Working Paper Series WP11-6, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    71. Heiner Flassbeck & Massimiliano La Marca, 2009. "Currency speculation, domestic and international monetary systems: reforming China's and the global financial architecture," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 237-258.
    72. Yongnian Zheng & Jingtao Yi, 2007. "China's Rapid Accumulation of Foreign Exchange Reserves and Its Policy Implications," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 15(1), pages 14-25, January.
    73. Peijie Wang, 2010. "A Triangular Analysis of Exchange Rate Determination and Adjustments - The case of RMB, the US dollar and the euro," Working Papers 2010-FIN-01, IESEG School of Management.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Meixing Dai, 2013. "In search of an optimal strategy for yuan’s real revaluation," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 29-46, February.
    2. Julien Jacob, 2011. "Innovation and diffusion in risky industries under liability law: the case of “double-impact” innovations," Working Papers of BETA 2011-24, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    3. Zhang, Zhibai, 2010. "A comparison of the BEER and Penn effect models via their applications on the valuation of the Renminbi," MPRA Paper 40649, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Bineau, Yannick, 2010. "Renminbi's misalignment: A meta-analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 259-269, September.
    5. Gan, Christopher & Ward, Bert & Ting, Su Ting & Cohen, David A., 2013. "An empirical analysis of China's equilibrium exchange rate: A co-integration approach," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 33-44.
    6. Houda Ghaya, 2011. "Board of Directors’ Involvement in Strategic Decision Making Process: Definition and Literature Review," Working Papers of BETA 2011-22, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    7. Marcus Kappler & Helmut Reisen & Moritz Schularick & Edouard Turkisch, 2013. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Large Exchange Rate Appreciations," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 471-494, July.
    8. repec:zbw:bofitp:2011_015 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Soyoung Kim & Yoonbai Kim, 2016. "The RMB Debate: Empirical Analysis on the Effects of Exchange Rate Shocks in China and Japan," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(10), pages 1539-1557, October.
    10. John Knight & Wei Wang, 2011. "China’s Macroeconomic Imbalances: Causes and Consequences," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(9), pages 1476-1506, September.
    11. Zhibai, Zhang, 2012. "RMB Undervaluation and Appreciation," MPRA Paper 40978, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Jenny Monheim-Helstroffer & Marie Obidzinski, 2011. "The EU legislation game: the case of asylum law," Working Papers of BETA 2011-16, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    13. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2010. "China's Current Account and Exchange Rate," NBER Chapters, in: China's Growing Role in World Trade, pages 231-271, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Bonatti, Luigi & Fracasso, Andrea, 2013. "Regime switches in the Sino-American co-dependency: Growth and structural change in China," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 1-32.
    15. Shaghil Ahmed, 2009. "Are Chinese exports sensitive to changes in the exchange rate?," International Finance Discussion Papers 987, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Kang-Soek Lee, 2011. "A Euro Peg System as an Alternative for the Chinese Exchange Rate Regime?," Chapters, in: Wim Meeusen (ed.), The Economic Crisis and European Integration, chapter 8, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    17. Isabella Weber & Anwar Shaikh, 2021. "The U.S.–China trade imbalance and the theory of free trade: debunking the currency manipulation argument," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3-4), pages 432-455, July.
    18. repec:zbw:bofitp:2009_013 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Rod Tyers & Ying Zhang, 2014. "Real exchange rate determination and the China puzzle," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 28(2), pages 1-32, November.
    20. Zhang, Zhibai, 2010. "Understanding the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate model via its application to the valuation of Chinese renminbi," MPRA Paper 40648, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Kristina Spantig, 2012. "International monetary policy spillovers in an asymmetric world monetary system - The United States and China," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 2012-33, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    22. Korhonen, Iikka & Ritola, Maria, 2009. "Renminbi misaligned : Results from meta-regressions," BOFIT Discussion Papers 13/2009, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Renminbi (RMB); revaluation of the Yuan; foreign exchange reserves; external disequilibrium; measures of macroeconomic adjustment.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:30440. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.