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RMB Exchange Market Pressure and Central Bank Exchange Market Intervention

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  • Xiaohui Liu
  • Jing Zhang

Abstract

The present paper uses the model‐dependent and the model‐independent approach to measure the RMB exchange market pressure (EMP) and the central bank's intervention using monthly data from January 1999 to June 2008. It is determined that the RMB has been under great appreciation pressure over the past decade. However, the pressure has been weakening since 2005. The two approaches provide significantly different results in terms of the estimated RMB EMP indices and the estimated central bank's interventions. The differences may lead to different predictions of potential currency crises. According to the estimation of the RMB EMP, and based on the model‐independent approach, the paper shows that China has been under threat of an appreciation currency crisis since 2008. Therefore, China should adopt a more flexible exchange rate regime to prevent a potential crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiaohui Liu & Jing Zhang, 2009. "RMB Exchange Market Pressure and Central Bank Exchange Market Intervention," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 17(3), pages 75-92, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:chinae:v:17:y:2009:i:3:p:75-92
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1749-124X.2009.01151.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stavarek, Daniel, 2007. "Comparative analysis of the exchange market pressure in Central European countries with the Eurozone membership perspective," MPRA Paper 3906, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    5. Burdekin, Richard C K & Burkett, Paul, 1990. "A Re-examination of the Monetary Model of Exchange Market Pressure: Canada, 1963-1988," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(4), pages 677-681, November.
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    7. Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2005. "Classifying exchange rate regimes: Deeds vs. words," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1603-1635, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Xiaohui Liu & Conglai Fan, 2010. "The model and empirical estimation of the optimal flexibility of RMB exchange-rate regime: A study based on the price-stabilization," Frontiers of Economics in China, Springer;Higher Education Press, vol. 5(2), pages 187-209, June.
    2. Dai, Meixing, 2011. "Motivations and strategies for a real revaluation of the Yuan," MPRA Paper 30440, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Meixing Dai, 2013. "In search of an optimal strategy for yuan’s real revaluation," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 29-46, February.

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