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Trade and GDP Growth in Morocco: Short-run or Long-run Causality?

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  • bouoiyour, jamal

Abstract

This study utilizes cointegration and Granger-causality tests to examine the relationship between trade and economic growth in Morocco over the period 1960-2000 using the VEC model. The result indicate that both exports and imports enter with positive signs in the cointegration equation. The results show that imports and exports Granger caused GDP and imports Granger caused exports. These results can be interpreted as a causality from the foreign sector to the domestic growth of Morocco. Import expansion increases exports that affect the GDP growth.

Suggested Citation

  • bouoiyour, jamal, 2003. "Trade and GDP Growth in Morocco: Short-run or Long-run Causality?," MPRA Paper 28859, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:28859
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    6. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    7. Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
    8. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    9. Esfahani, Hadi Salehi, 1991. "Exports, imports, and economic growth in semi-industrialized countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 93-116, January.
    10. Pack, Howard & Page, John Jr., 1994. "Accumulation, exports, and growth in the high-performing Asian economies," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 199-235, June.
    11. George K. Zestos & Xiangnan Tao, 2002. "Trade and GDP Growth: Causal Relations in the United States and Canada," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 68(4), pages 859-874, April.
    12. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    13. Edwards, Sebastian, 1992. "Trade orientation, distortions and growth in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 31-57, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. El Alaoui, Aicha, 2015. "Causality and cointegration between export, import and economic growth: evidence from Morocco," MPRA Paper 65431, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Adel Shakeeb Mohsen, 2015. "Effects of Oil and Non-Oil Exports on the Economic Growth of Syria," Academic Journal of Economic Studies, Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest, vol. 1(2), pages 69-78, June.
    3. Alam, Md. Mahmudul & Murad, Wahid, 2019. "The Impacts of Economic Growth, Trade Openness and Technological Progress on Renewable Energy Use in Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development Countries," SocArXiv wj45u_v1, Center for Open Science.
    4. Kawtar Dkhissi, 2014. "Impact des accords de libre échange sur la propension et l'intensité des exportations des entreprises au Maroc," Post-Print hal-01335587, HAL.
    5. World Bank, 2006. "Fostering Higher Growth and Employment in the Kingdom of Morocco," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 7114.
    6. bouoiyour, jamal, 2006. "Productivité du travail, capital humain et écart technologique dans les industries manufacturières marocaines [Labor productivity, human capital and technology gap in manufacturing Moroccan]," MPRA Paper 37035, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Thomas Gries & Margarete Redlin, 2012. "Trade Openness and Economic Growth: A Panel Causality Analysis," Working Papers CIE 52, Paderborn University, CIE Center for International Economics.
    8. Irina Travkina, 2015. "Export and GDP Growth in Lithuania: Short-run or Middle-run Causality?," Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, VsI Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Center, vol. 3(1), pages 74-84, September.
    9. Bouoiyour, Jamal, 2005. "Partenariat Euro-marocain et dynamique des investissements directs étrangers [Euro-Moroccan partnership and dynamic investment foreign direct]," MPRA Paper 45992, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Walkenhorst, Peter & Malouche, Mariem, 2006. "Trade Policy and Export Performance in Morocco," MPRA Paper 23119, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Bakari, Sayef, 2017. "The Nexus between Export, Import, Domestic Investment and Economic Growth in Japan," MPRA Paper 76110, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Navaratnam Ravinthirakumaran, 2014. "Applicability of Openness-led Growth Hypothesis in Sri Lanka," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 15(2), pages 241-263, September.
    13. Alam, Md. Mahmudul & Murad, Md. Wahid, 2020. "The impacts of economic growth, trade openness and technological progress on renewable energy use in organization for economic co-operation and development countries," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 382-390.
    14. Bakari, Sayef, 2016. "Impact of Exports and Imports on Economic Growth in Canada: Empirical Analysis Based on Causality," MPRA Paper 75910, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Bouoiyour, Jamal, 2007. "The determining factors of foreign direct investment in Morocco," MPRA Paper 37326, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. repec:pra:mprapa:37325 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Saida Daly & Mohamed Abdouli, 2023. "The Nexus between Environmental Quality, Economic Growth, and Trade Openness in Saudi Arabia (1990-2017)," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(4), pages 579-598, July.
    18. Gulzar Ali & Zhaohua Li, 2016. "Analyzing the role of Imports in Economic Growth of Pakistan; Evidence from ARDL Bound Testing Approach," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 6(9), pages 19-37, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    GDP; Exports; Imports; Granger Causality; Cointegration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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