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Export and GDP Growth in Lithuania: Short-run or Middle-run Causality?

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  • Irina Travkina

    (Vilnius Gediminas Technical University (VILNIUS TECH), Lithuania)

Abstract

The research paper discusses the relationship between international trade, especially export, and the economic growth, presented by GDP, in Lithuania over the period of 2000-2015 years. The analysis is started by the historical review of possible types of relationships between exports and economic growth. Furthermore, the paper presents four theoretical propositions as export-led growth (1), growth-driven export (2), a feedback relationship (3) and simple contemporaneous relationship (4). This study examines the importance of the export-led growth hypothesis for Lithuania. The testing is based on Granger causality in the export–GDP system. The export-led growth hypothesis is found in Lithuania only in the short-run. The recommendations for future investigations are developed at the end of research paper’s parts.

Suggested Citation

  • Irina Travkina, 2015. "Export and GDP Growth in Lithuania: Short-run or Middle-run Causality?," Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, VsI Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Center, vol. 3(1), pages 74-84, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:ssi:jouesi:v:3:y:2015:i:1:p:74-84
    DOI: 10.9770/jesi.2015.3.1(7)
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Judith Giles & Cara Williams, 2001. "Export-led growth: a survey of the empirical literature and some non-causality results. Part 2," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 445-470.
    2. Helmut Lütkepohl, 2005. "New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-540-27752-1, December.
    3. Irina Travkina & Manuela Tvaronavičienė, 2015. "Peculiarities of export structure in Lithuania: synthesis and analysis," Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, VsI Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Center, vol. 2(4), pages 233-247, June.
    4. Haishun Sun & Ashok Parikh, 2001. "Exports, Inward Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Regional Economic Growth in China," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 187-196.
    5. bouoiyour, jamal, 2003. "Trade and GDP Growth in Morocco: Short-run or Long-run Causality?," MPRA Paper 28859, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Jung, Woo S. & Marshall, Peyton J., 1985. "Exports, growth and causality in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-12.
    7. Judith Giles & Cara Williams, 2001. "Export-led growth: a survey of the empirical literature and some non-causality results. Part 2," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 445-470.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Granger causality; exogeneity; Lithuanian export; economic growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • P45 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - International Linkages
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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