Future of Rice in Asia: Perspectives and Opportunities, 2050

To meet the rice demand 2050, the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) estimates that an extra 75 million tons of rice will need to be produced worldwide compared to 2020. This represents a substantial leap forward when rice yields are plateauing in most countries. Several factors are likely to drive the supply response, including the actual surface planted to rice when the competition for land is fierce, the extent of adoption of high-yielding varieties when variety turnover has remained low, farmer's access to and price of inputs especially fertilizers as the price of fossil energy soars, rapidly changing consumers preference with a growing rice market segmentation that calls for shorter and more responsive value chains, evolving public incentives to address production but also consumption environmental policy objectives, and the more or less rapid integration of rice market in Asia but also the rice market outlook in Africa. Authors borrow from foresight methods and rely on quantitative models such as the IRRI Global Rice Model (IGRM) to analyze projections in terms of supply, demand, trade, and prices. Under the climate change adaptation and mitigation imperative, the paper also discusses the likely tradeoffs between food and nutrition security and methane emission reduction and higher water use efficiency in Asian rice-based agri-food systems.