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Growth and trend analysis of area, production and yield of rice: A scenario of rice security in Bangladesh

Author

Listed:
  • Md Abdullah Al Mamun
  • Sheikh Arafat Islam Nihad
  • Md Abdur Rouf Sarkar
  • Md Abdullah Aziz
  • Md Abdul Qayum
  • Rokib Ahmed
  • Niaz Md Farhat Rahman
  • Md Ismail Hossain
  • Md Shahjahan Kabir

Abstract

Bangladesh positioned as third rice producing country in the world. In Bangladesh, regional growth and trend in rice production determinants, disparities and similarities of rice production environments are highly desirable. In this study, the secondary time series data of area, production, and yield of rice from 1969–70 to 2019–20 were used to investigate the growth and trend by periodic, regional, seasonal and total basis. Quality checking, trend fitting, and classification analysis were performed by the Durbin-Watson test, Exponential growth model, Cochrane-Orcutt iteration method and clustering method. The production contribution to the national rice production of Boro rice is increasing at 0.97% per year, where Aus and Aman season production contribution significantly decreased by 0.48% and 0.49% per year. Among the regions, Mymensingh, Rangpur, Bogura, Jashore, Rajshahi, and Chattogram contributed the most i.e., 13.9%, 9.8%, 8.6%, 8.6%, 8.2%, and 8.0%, respectively. Nationally, the area of Aus and Aman had a decreasing trend with a -3.63% and -0.16% per year, respectively. But, in the recent period (Period III) increasing trend was observed in the most regions. The Boro cultivation area is increasing with a rate of 3.57% per year during 1984–85 to 2019–20. High yielding variety adoption rate has increased over the period and in recent years it has found 72% for Aus, 73.5% for Aman, and 98.4% for Boro season. As a result, the yield of the Aus, Aman, and Boro seasons has been found increasing growth for most of the regions. We have identified different cluster regions in different seasons, indicating high dissimilarities among the rice production regions in Bangladesh. The region-wise actionable plan should be taken to rapidly adopt new varieties, management technologies and extension activities in lower contributor regions to improve productivity. Cluster-wise, policy strategies should be implemented for top and less contributor regions to ensure rice security of Bangladesh.

Suggested Citation

  • Md Abdullah Al Mamun & Sheikh Arafat Islam Nihad & Md Abdur Rouf Sarkar & Md Abdullah Aziz & Md Abdul Qayum & Rokib Ahmed & Niaz Md Farhat Rahman & Md Ismail Hossain & Md Shahjahan Kabir, 2021. "Growth and trend analysis of area, production and yield of rice: A scenario of rice security in Bangladesh," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(12), pages 1-18, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0261128
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0261128
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kabir, Md. Jahangir & Kabir, Md. Shahjahan & Salam, Md Abdus & Islam, Mohammad Ariful & Omar, Md Imran & Sarkar, Md. Abdur Rouf & Rahman, Mohammad Chhiddikur & Chowdhury, Afroza & Rahaman, Md. Shajedu, 2020. "Harvesting of Boro Paddy in Haor Areas of Bangladesh: Interplay of Local and Migrant Labour, Mechanized Harvesters and Covid-19 Vigilance in 2020," EconStor Research Reports 243304, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    2. Rahman, Mohammad Chhiddikur & Islam, Mohammad Ariful & Rahaman, Md Shajedur & Sarkar, Md Abdur Rouf & Ahmed, Rokib & Kabir, Md Shahjahan, 2021. "Identifying the Threshold Level of Flooding for Rice Production in Bangladesh: An Empirical Analysis," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 19(2), pages 243-250.
    3. Mondal, Manoranjan K. & Bhuiyan, Sadiqul I. & Franco, Danielito T., 2001. "Soil salinity reduction and prediction of salt dynamics in the coastal ricelands of Bangladesh," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 9-23, February.
    4. Fatema, Kanij & Miah, Tofazzal H, 2011. "Rice Versus Shrimp Farming In Khulna District Of Bangladesh: Interpretations Of Field-Level Data," Bangladesh Journal of Agricultural Economics, Bangladesh Agricultural University, vol. 34(1-2), pages 1-12, December.
    5. Finger, Robert, 2010. "Evidence of slowing yield growth - The example of Swiss cereal yields," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 175-182, April.
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    2. Rebeka Sultana Supti & Rokeya Begum, 2024. "Profitability of Transplanted Aman rice cultivation in some selected areas of the southern part of Bangladesh," International Journal of Science and Business, IJSAB International, vol. 33(1), pages 95-104.

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